Self driving cars are still decades away

Just got the FSD v12 update for my Model 3.

It’s an incredible improvement. I had it drive me to the supermarket and back and it did extremely well. I intervened a couple of times at the beginning because I wasn’t yet used to how it would behave, but on the way back it needed zero interventions (and it probably didn’t need any interventions to start with; I just wasn’t sure about my comfort level initially).

The steering control in particular is 100x better than v11. Not 100%, 100x. v11 was just all over the place and I never got remotely comfortable with most turns. It’s all very natural now, on par or better than a typical human driver. I never felt that it was doing something unexpected or that it would curb my rims.

Speedbumps: handled perfectly. I have a bunch of them around my place and it slowed to just the right speed, neither too slow nor too fast. And it detected all of them in the dark.

Pedestrian detection was perfect. Had to make a right just as some pedestrians were approaching; it waited for them to cross and took the turn as soon as they were safely through.

Lane changes were all appropriate and felt nicely snappy. v11 is very hesitant when changing lanes, and the whole operation is slow as molasses. When the car needs to change lanes, it does it. The one time it took things a bit slow was exactly when it needed to; a truck was behind me in the target lane, so the car took a bit more time to give it appropriate warning. When no cars were around, it did the lane changes quickly.

Also snappy was taking off at a green light. The light changed and the car took off the way a human would–smoothly but not too slow, either. There were a couple of times where it seemed to hesitate a little, but I wonder if it saw something I didn’t.

The weakest point was the speed control. Totally fine when following another car. But with no one else on the road, for some reason it’s a little variable. We were on a 40 mph road and it would sorta vary between 35 and 40 mph. I’m not the only one that saw this, and it seems to be a regression from the earlier v12 builds, so hopefully they work out the kinks here. Didn’t feel unsafe, but annoying to me and anyone behind.

The car doesn’t park yet, and gets a little confused once it gets to a parking lot. But it navigated out of the lot successfully despite it being unmapped, so it wasn’t terrible. Hopefully it’ll be able to really finish the job in a new release.

Overall, I’m very impressed. No, it’s not L4 yet, let alone L5, but it absolutely feels like the right path, and weirdly, it feels like it nails the hard problems while not always getting the small stuff right. But it’s still early days. And already my car is driving me around with the only input on my side being nudging the wheel to keep the nags at bay.

The Supercruise on our new Cadillac is pretty impressive, albeit limited. It only works on roads GM has mapped, so I’ve only tried it on I-90, but it works very well there. They are supposed to add 50% more roads (400,000 miles) imminently, so hopefully we get more side roads. Coming home from the airport at 10 PM the other day I definitely appreciated it.

It’s not even Level 3 yet if you can’t take your eyes off the road, but overall it sounds like an impressive improvement.

Thanks you. I very much appreciate informed non-professional reviews. I don’t plan on getting FSD on our Tesla, but I like to read about it.

What does Supercruise do, exactly?

Self-driving on mapped roads, including lane changes. Supercruise

So it doesn’t do that thing on turns, where it stops for no particular reason, often in the middle of a left turn with oncoming traffic?

That is really good to hear, as it is one of the primary reasons I have to disengage on neighborhood roads where it otherwise does pretty well. I wonder if it will detect the speed dips here. I suppose technically they’re storm drains that cross the road, but I have to slow down more for those than for speed bumps.

How is the turn signal use and lane selection? One of my biggest complaints about v11 (over v10) is the random turn signal use for curves in the road, and v11’s tendency to move into exactly the wrong lane.

According to the data on TeslaFi, which only includes their subscribers, so far 2023.44.30.20 with v12.2.1 has been installed on about 60 California cars, plus two in Nevada, and one in Oregon. I hope it spreads out soon, because v11 is really bad.

Germany’s Fraunhofer Institut, the Technical University Berlin and other such petrol heads admit that they underestimated the difficulties when they believed a 2015 McKinsey study about the wonders FSD would accomplish. Now they no longer believe FSD will be there befre 2040, but L3 or L4 might be achieved sooner (sorry it is all in German):

They, of course, are no Teslas, but readily admit that getting a lot of money from the government was nice. And they did manage some research too!

God I hate McKinsey.

I am with you on that, in case it was not clear. Everything they say is technically or morally wrong, mostly both. Whatever they advocate: do the opposite.

Also, a delightfully German paragraph:

“In a situation, for example, in which the automated car is overwhelmed, the operator in the control center works out a solution based on the transmitted data so that the automated vehicle can continue driving,” explains Radusch. “This could also be an alternative for truck drivers to control the Brummis teleoperated across Europe. The truck driver could then always be with his family and friends in the evening.”

The real dream of course is that the driver will remotely operate not one, but a dozen lorries (Brummis in the Kindergartenspeak that now passes for journalistic German). Because most of the time (ehem!) the lorry will manage perfectly on its own, so the remote operator will never be overburdened. Never ever!
Oh, and as we are at it, we can revoque all those pesky safety rules about maximum driving times, resting times, week-end lorry bans on Autobahnen, because they no longer really apply. No, seriously! Think of it the right way!

Pretty impressive! Too bad it’s so much scratch…

Eh, “morally” I’d put it at L3. I didn’t feel the need to have my hand on the wheel, so I just nudged it to get rid of the nags. I don’t know when they can actually disable the nags, but it legitimately feels like they’re close.

I didn’t use v11 enough to see that behavior, but v12 certainly didn’t show anything like that. I didn’t make any unprotected left turns, though.

The main difference I see is that v11 would turn wildly at low speed, particularly when initiating a turn. It felt like it was going to drive over the median or the curb all the time and I’d grab the wheel. Didn’t see that at all with v12. It just nicely eased into all its turns.

Both fine. I just did a short drive but it required a few lane changes, including one that it didn’t have time to dilly-dally for. Only minor complaint is that it left the carpool lane (which is on the right) unnecessarily (since it was late), but not a big deal.

Minor related issue–when pulling right onto a major road, it had its own complete lane, but it nevertheless came to a (short) stop before continuing. About 50% of human drivers do the same though so I can’t fault it too much.

Huh. Even accounting for the fact that it’s subscriber only, that seems like a small number. Wonder why I got it. I use it a great deal on highways, but very little on city streets (that may change now). Maybe because my overall percentage is pretty high. Or it’s just random.

Yeah, though I only paid $3k. There are some downsides to having the 2018 model, but FSD was a relatively cheap add-on back then (on top of the $4k Autopilot). On the other hand, the cars themselves have gotten a lot cheaper (and better)…

I’m going to run to the store again tonight, but it’ll be another short trip. I’ll see if I can do more comprehensive testing this weekend.

$3k would be a no-brainer. Isn’t it $15k now?

This is some sort of over flow or wraparound condition that happens in human brains:

Sign Behavior
Stop = Yield
Yield = Nothing
Nothing = Stop

We know AI picks up human biases, but it would be nice if it could avoid the error conditions.

$12k, but close enough. At $3k it’s an indulgent toy, at $12k, it’s a big waste of money. Tesla has now had two periods when they’ve been willing to transfer autopilot to a new car when trading in. They use that as a dial to increase sales, but it also guarantees that if I ever buy another Tesla it will only be during one of those special offer periods.

Is there any user input into FSD?

Specifically, I live in Miami where we collectively drive in a … non-standard fashion.

FSD sounds great … as long as I can tell it I want to do 100-110 in the express lanes like the big boys do. So it should ignore speed limits and take my direction on that one parameter.

You can add an offset to the detected speed. But I think 100 mph is past its upper limit limit, which IIRC is 90 mph. Might be different with v12. And, well–yikes. That’s pretty fast.

It also takes lane change requests and you can manually hit the gas as a hint that it should progress (like if it’s hesitant at a 4-way stop). But it’ll slow down after you let off.

FSD might not be appropriate for Miami at the moment if the drivers are as aggressive as they sound.

I have been passed at serious overtake while I was doing 120. This is just normal driving home from work at offpeak times of day; not 3am drug-fueled showing off.

We have an auotbahn in the USA and it’s right here.

Did another quick FSD drive tonight. Did well again.

Two very minor interventions. One was at a sorta awkward situation at a 3-way stop where another car was waiting for a pedestrian to cross, and I was waiting to turn left. The other guy didn’t go right away (even after the pedestrian had passed his lane), and my car went for it, into the pedestrian’s path. I’m fairly sure the pedestrian would have exited the crosswalk by the time I got there, and the car would have stopped if he hadn’t, but it was a little uncomfortable for my tastes. The other was a slowdown at a spot that wasn’t exactly an intersection, but had potential cross-traffic, and so the car seemed to be a bit too cautious. I gave it a little gas to keep it going. The car didn’t come to a stop or anything, but it was going slower than it should for the area.

Aside from that, nothing. No touching the wheel aside from nag cancellation. And neither situation was really unsafe, just potentially annoying/confusing to other drivers.

One really nice maneuver: oncoming traffic had a green left arrow and I was turning right. The car came to a stop, waited for the oncoming (turning) car to pass, and very cleanly made a free right turn behind him. No hesitation, and it gave the other car just the right amount of following distance without any weird braking or accelerating. I wonder what the car does in NYC, where right turns on red are prohibited.

And overall, I continue to be impressed at how snappy it accelerates when it’s sure of a clear intersection. I was usually ahead of cars in other lanes, which is also true of my own driving style. It’s not aggressive… it just isn’t pokey.

It still does the weird thing where it can’t hold a constant speed unless it’s following a car. I sorta wonder if it learned that from human drivers, given how bad so many are are doing the same…

Well, one company lots of people have been looking forward to for their self-driving car quits:

Apple Cancels Work on Electric Car, Shifts Team to Generative AI

Company is winding down work on decade-old Project Titan
Employees on some car teams will move to Apple’s AI division

Apple made the disclosure internally Tuesday, surprising the nearly 2,000 employees working on the project, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the announcement wasn’t public. The decision was shared by Chief Operating Officer Jeff Williams and Kevin Lynch, a vice president in charge of the effort, according to the people.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/apple-cancels-work-on-electric-car-shifts-team-to-generative-ai