Self driving cars are still decades away

I’m in Assertive Mode. That’s where it’s always been.

We got the update overnight and have free FSD. I’ll look for that assertive mode. We are going on our typical longer trip to a trailhead tomorrow so I’ll give it a shot. Tomorrow’s trip will be nearly all 2-lane highway and then 15’ish miles of Forest Service road at the end. I’m sure it will love the FS road :slight_smile:

I give it a solid “meh”. Some line item things:

  • Happy to drive right over potholes, blown semi tires and rocks (I actively engaged to avoid the latter two items)
  • I don’t get the speed control. Sometimes it would happily speed up when the speed went up, but sometimes it would poke up and hover 5 or so MPH below until I jabbed the pedal to speed it up. I need to read through the options on that to better understand.
  • At a right on red situation, it started to go when the cross traffic got the go ahead and a truck started that had the right of way. FSD stopped immediately. Not bad.
  • At a left which goes across two highway lanes, you enter a protected lane so you don’t have to pay attention to the traffic from the right. Not sure when it would’ve gotten up the gumption to go so I took over (I was on the chill mode at that time).
  • Once again, our wipers turned on and it was a bluebird day. They were just going so I turned them off. FSD then warned me it was driving in a degraded state or something along those lines. I’m starting to think our car has an issue. We were driving into the sun or something that would cause issues with that camera.
  • The worst event was a protected left turn with a turn arrow. We were entering on green to turn when it turned yellow and it stopped immediately. In the intersection. Luckily, no one was behind and I was able to reverse out (I couldn’t go through at this time).

We live in an area without many Teslas. Since it learns from the driving of others, could we have particularly bad or limited training materials? That left turn was horribly bad.

Maybe I am misunderstanding the problem and you know this but you can scroll the right wheel to set the max speed you will let it go. This needs to be re-set every time the speed limit changes.

I have only had one inappropriate swipe on a nice day. It doesn’t turn on sometimes in the rain or not right away for me. We have had rain the last few days and I get the warning that the performance might be degraded.

That could be the issue. There isn’t a single road near me that hasn’t been exhaustively covered by Teslas.

I am definitely keeping FSD after my three month trial. I’m hoping that they lower the price after the country wide free month. Right now it’s $200/month or $12k for life so five years to break even assuming that they monthly price doesn’t rise. And it’s not transferrable (I tink it used to be) so if your car gets wrecked after six months you are shit out of luck.

In FSD mode, ours was adjusting the speed when it changed. I would use the right thumbwheel to tell it to go 5 MPH over and I often had to hit the accelerator to get it to to up to that speed. For the most part, I didn’t have to manually change the speeds when it changed.

There are options for the speed and they are different now that we have FSD mode. I need to do some reading of those setting.

IANA Tesla owner, nor have I test driven one. But I’m intensely interested to learn all about it.

I would be amazed if the right thumbwheel (that I’ve never seen) was setting an absolute speed as @hajario says, versus setting an upside tolerance on the speed limit the car has detected as implied by @wguy123.

Can someone clarify this point? Doesn’t immediately matter to me, but if the car resets the tolerance to zero at each speed limit change that would explain both of your data points. Sort of.

If I was King, there’d be two settings buried in the personalized configuration menus about speed compliance: surface street and limited access highway. Which would apply everywhere all the time as the default unless diddled by some hands on control, and which tweak would apply to the next speed limit change only.

Which default settings I personally would set to +5 and +30 respectively. Then again, I live in an odd part of the country when it comes to my, and everyone else’s, speed limit compliance.

There is a general setting where you tell it that it’s always allowed to go x% above the speed limit. During the drive you can give it a maximum number that it’s allowed to go. This can be above or below the speed limit and obviously there is and upper limit to how high it can be set. It defaults back to the actual speed limit or your general x% when the speed limit changes

The right thumb wheel sets the maximum speed. The problem is that the new v12 behaves differently than previous versions. I hope it is just a bug, because it is awful annoying.

With v11 and previous versions of FSD the max speed was generally the speed the car would go. A slower car or curves would make the car go below the max speed, but that was how fast the car would try to go. The same as any other traffic aware cruise control.

In v12 the car frequently goes slower than the max set speed, even when there is no obvious reason to go slower. Now instead of behaving like traffic aware cruise control, it behaves like that incredibly annoying driver that let’s their speed drift all over on a completely clear road.

There are settings to adjust the default max speed to be relative to the speed limit. That is just a convenience, so when you turn on FSD/cruise control in a 65 zone it is already set to 70 (or whatever).

The thumb wheel is very easy to use to change the current set speed, whether FSD/cruise control is on or off, by 1 or 5 MPH increments.

Neither the default offset or the ease of changing things matters though, when v12 decides it’s going 58 in the 65 zone with the max speed set at 70.

Thank you for confirming exactly what I saw! Straight stretch of road and I have it set for max of 65 on a 60 road and it is poking along at 57. I jab the pedal to get it up to 65 and then it seems fine. It seemed to do better when it could follow a car.

At one point a road leaving town goes from 35 to 45. You don’t hit 45 for quite a ways and the folks driving that stretch are doing 45-50 will before the actual change. I noticed the car was going 47 well before the 35 and the little speed limit sign on the display still read 35. That is where it does seem to be doing what live humans would be doing. Not sure about all the times it is too slow though.

Another day, another upgrade

Now at 2024.3.10 and FSD v12.3.3

Interestingly, it went from being called FSD (Beta) to FSD (Supervised). Nothing explanatory in the release notes.

I got the update that lets me try FSD. So I used it on my morning commute: 30 miles of L.A. freeways in the dark, packed with commuters, and early enough that traffic is going the speed limit.

Problems:

I had to intervene once. There’s a new stoplight immediately before one of my turns. Tesla does not have it on their map. Despite the car being at a location it thought was in the middle of the block, the car still decided to turn. Maybe it thought the nav instead of the map was wrong? Anyway, I didn’t want to go down a dead end, so I overrode.

The car took one risky choice, but I didn’t intervene. I was in lane 5 out of five. There was a semi far ahead of me. There was a second semi in lane 4, slowly passing the first semi. The car caught up to the first semi in lane 5, and followed it while driving next to the overtaking semi in lane 4. The car patiently waited for the second semi to be safely ahead and then change to lane 4. And then changed to lane 3 to pass the second semi.

Being boxed in by two semis is not a place I willing put myself in. The risk is too high for something to go wrong, to have no place to go, and to be the smallest vehicle in a multi-vehicle incident. The car had the info that it was safe to move to lane 3 from the start, and then pass both semis at once.

The Tesla has a strong bias to change lanes to the left vs to the right. It was happy enough to go left to gain a few mph. But then it would stay there while faster cars caught us and the passed to our right. It should’ve gone back to the right once it was clear and before we started being overtaken. When we got to the leftmost lane, it finally triggered a “get out of passing lane” message, but it seemingly doesn’t differentiate among the middle lanes. The car did respond well to me putting on the right turn signal to get over.

Successes:

The Tesla handled lane changes in high-speed heavy traffic well. It used its signals when appropriate, waited for a gap (looks like 4 car lengths was enough), promptly started the lane change, and also abandoned the lane change when the gap was disappearing. I didn’t keep exact count, but something like 12 successful changes and 4 attempted but abandoned changes. I was ready to take over instantly, but these all felt safe.

The screen display showing what the car is thinking is nice. They’ve done a good job showing things graphically in a way that a quick glance is enough.

Initial Cost vs Benefit:
The Tesla FSD is not worth the price they’re charging for my use case: mostly four to six lanes of heavy traffic. I know which lanes to take and where to switch because of intimate knowledge of the traffic patterns on my routes. I also know signs of trouble that mean I need to take an alternate route. I don’t fault the car for not knowing these, but that lack means the FSD value-added is low.

Tesla is poised to roll out its own robotaxis in August, Elon Musk says: Musk provided few details about the self-driving automobiles in a cryptic, one-line announcement.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/tesla-poised-roll-robotaxis-elon-musk-says-19388645.php

Elon wrote:

“Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8.”

Unless they come with a backup driver, I don’t see this happening–based on the comments of Tesla owners here and elsewhere.

8/8… Interesting choice of dates.

Just a coincidence I’m sure.

not seeing a year here … so that might be his way out

There us no damn way it will be fully autonomous in August unless maybe it’s restricted to a smallish downtown area and even that’s highly doubtful. The current one has issues with construction areas for example. That’s not to mention activists and trolls destroying the things on sight.

My guess that they will unveil a concept of some kind like with the truck and it will be years before it’s live.

Elmo did tweet that v12.4 would be a huge step up from 12.3 and indicated that it would be released before everyone’s free month is up at the end of April.

would make sense to have out the “1-2 steps up version” as a promotion… if you want people to subscribe to it at the end of the month…

the cynical-me is wondering if that freeby FSD promotion is a way to just boost their AI knowledgebase … with 100s of 1000s of people using it, that should flush in lots of free data and usage cases into their systems…

Without a doubt. Of course that’s part of the reason. They more or less said so. In the release notes it says “A neural network trained on millions of video clips that replaces more than 300,000 lines of C++ code”. This data is gold to them.

so they charge the price of gold for it

… makes sense :wink:

All the seriously successful businesses of the last ~30 years have been middlemen who charge both the buyers and sellers a fee to connect them to each other.

Only taking revenue from one side of the equation is sooo last century.

Why wouldn’t Tesla have access to all the driving of those not using FSD to help train? Or, are they trying to figure out when drivers intervene, as I did multiple times today?

Driving in the nearly exact same place today (within a few hundred feet) on our way to a hike, the exact thing happened: Sunny, beautiful day and all of a sudden the wipers and headlights come on. Something about that place makes the car think it is dark and rainy. It is going down a pretty good grade at around 65, but nothing that looks “rainy”.

It did better today, but made a couple sketchy decisions at intersections, including one where I don’t know if it would’ve ever gone. The speed control still needs a lot of work. Sometimes it sped up quickly and got to speed, other times it seemed to poke up to speed (I usually pushed the pedal to get it up to speed). One thing it almost always did poorly was slow down quick enough when it went from 60 to 30 (this is a small highway that goes through small towns). It would slow down to like 45, but then no indications it would ever slow down more even though it was displaying “MAX 30” on the display. I had to hit the brakes to cancel FSD and slow down.