Self driving cars are still decades away

too late to edit:

I have no idea how those E-taxis will sort out all those legal specifics of misc. places… which go way beyond “AI simulating/replicating a reasonable driver’s behaviour pattern” …

Yep. In NYC taxis are required to load/unload within 12 inches of the curb. In actual practice, away from train stations or hotels, that’s pretty uncommon.

Agree as to e-taxis.

But for human taxis there are two cases: you’re standing at the curb and hail a passing cab = no waiting other than loading. In the other case you phoned (or apped) a dispatch center and had one sent to your pickup address. The cab may be standing there at the pickup point for a few minutes until you emerge. Just like an e-taxi will.

Then regardless of what sort of taxi called how, there’s the loading delay while you perhaps put your crap in the trunk, then get in. Plus multiple people, canes, walkers, umbrellas, annoying pink Pekinese twins, etc.

Not everyone is an unburdened adult male in a hurry.

This information comes from Waymo so perhaps take it with a grain of salt, but I thought people here might be interested in these stats.

When considering all locations together, compared to the human benchmarks, the Waymo Driver demonstrated:

  • An 85% reduction or 6.8 times lower crash rate involving any injury, from minor to severe and fatal cases (0.41 incidence per million miles for the Waymo Driver vs 2.78 for the human benchmark)
  • A 57% reduction or 2.3 times lower police-reported crash rate (2.1 incidence per million miles for the Waymo Driver vs. 4.85 for the human benchmark)

We still don’t have self-driving cars, but we have a flying car! Bonus content: famous musician is first passenger.

Did a ~5 hr round trip drive yesterday with mixed highway/surface street driving.

Absolutely no steering/accelerator/brake interventions from parking spot to parking spot. There was a funny point where I was stuck in traffic at a total standstill for ~15 minutes and the car actually shifted into park on its own, and I had to manually shift back into drive to get going again. So, Tesla might want to tweak that behavior if there’s no one in the car.

I initiated a few lane changes to get past slow traffic, but never for navigation reasons. And there were some speed adjustments, but mainly just to exceed the posted limit (though once it was because the car was going at the truck limit, not the car limit).

One thing I noticed is that there was much less speed tweaking in dense-ish traffic–the car said it was maintaining speed to keep up with traffic. It kept at 65 mph even when construction signs said 55. But coming back at night, there was much less traffic and it targeted 55 mph. Mildly annoying, but I can’t complain that the behavior was impeding traffic or anything.

The only somewhat marginal event was when I turned right onto a road but had to immediately get into a left turn lane. The car only got like halfway into the left lane. Would be annoying to other traffic if there’d been any, but also not so different from zillions of human drivers I’ve seen. Or cases where there are too many cars for the lane and some of them stick out. So I let it be.

I had to stop at a Supercharger… I wonder what Tesla will do about this in the long run. They’ve demoed robotic chargers and such but I’m more skeptical of this than FSD actually going full hands-off in the near future. I was pleased that they seem to have increased the time the car sustains 250 kW charging. I was plugged in for a little over 6 minutes, and it sustained >250 kW the whole time, putting in ~100 miles (all I needed to complete the trip with some margin).

It’s going to be so nice when I no longer have to wiggle the wheel every two minutes, but even with that the trip was very pleasant.

This is on v12.3.4, and while some people have newer versions, everyone is currently on some v12.3.x revision. Supposedly, both v12.4 and v12.5 are in development, retraining from scratch, and are undergoing the fine-tuning process. v12.3 has been great but the various revisions haven’t changed too much. The v12.4/5 may be a substantial jump, but we’ll have to see.

12.3.6 is being propagated as of this morning. I don’t have it yet.

Elmo claims that 12.4 will be a major upgrade and almost could be called 13.0.

I’ve been slightly hesitant to talk about Tesla FSD in this thread since someone complained and asked us to take the discussion elsewhere. I agree with @Dr.Strangelove that this thread would probably die without this convo.

Anyway, since others are continuing on with it, I’ll give my latest update. My free month expires tomorrow and I’ve not found it valuable enough to buy it. However, I have enjoyed having it and I feel it got better over the month (or maybe I learned how to use it better). It has had a few awful moments:

  • Stopping in an intersection when a green left arrow changed. I had to back out of that intersection. EMBARASSING!
  • Slamming on the brakes when a 50MPH light turned yellow and it could’ve easily gone through
  • Never, ever (or so it seemed), slowing down when 60MPH highways roll into town and drop to lower speeds (typically 30MPH). It will fucking race through town. I never give it enough chance to see if it ever slows down, but it seems happy to flip the bird to the town. I’ve hit the brakes many times and then given the feedback on why I stopped FSD. Hopefully it gets a fuckin’ clue.

For the most part, the normal level of Autopilot does what I want. I can see paying for FSD when we go on road trips and will be hitting the interstate freeways where I think it excels. But for now, no use in paying. We are driving on gravel FS roads too much and FSD can’t do shit there.

Are the speed limit signs insufficient? I was actually surprised recently driving through Texas, where I had been expecting every po-dunk town to be a speed trap that uses out-of-state drivers as a revenue source. There were many of these little towns, but every one had a series of speed limit signs going from 75->65->55->45->35->30. So there was no risk of blowing into town at highway speeds. Is the car not responding to the signs?

Just got 2024.3.25, which includes FSD v12.3.6. Will give a report when I get a chance. It has the new park assist feature for cars with ultrasonic sensors and Intel processors (i.e., my 2018 car). So that should be interesting.

Clearly marked. The display knows it is 30MPH and I’ve even manually lowered the “MAX” setting to 25MPH and it just continues along with perhaps some slight deceleration. These are 60->30 with no staged warning.

Huh. Well, that definitely needs to be fixed. Wonder if it’s a weird bug in the highway->surface street transition, which use different software paths (hopefully they’ll merge these soon). Really it should anticipate the transition even without the signs.

I’ve given them at least a dozen of the “why did you cancel FSD” messages about this.

Edit to add: I can make the car go faster, or to get through an intersection faster than the car wants to go without cancelling FSD. I would be nice if you had a way to do the same for slowing down. I mean, I can understand that hitting the brake means “stop what you are doing now”. I guess turning the thumbwheel should do this, but isn’t for some reason.

The signs are there, but if you’re going 80 and lift off the gas at the 65 MPH sign, you might be going 50 at the 30 sign, and get a ticket for 20 over. You need to be going 30 at the the 30. When I was using FSD in Texas pre-dropping the set speed was one of the primary things I needed to do.

I’ve noticed this too, and it seems to be a change from earlier behavior. Near me there is a street that goes from 35 to 25, and then there’s a stop sign. It used to decelerate strong enough at the speed limit change to get to 25 well before the stop sign. Now, if I don’t intervene, it will still be going over 30 before it has to start stopping. After the stop sign it goes 25.

You had me all excited, but I don’t think that is correct. I saw the release notes say it is still not available in Intel, just newly available for sonic sensor cars with AMD. I went and looked, and I don’t see any way to enable it.

It’s completely reasonable to upgrade a 6 year old Intel Atom processor to the new performance model with adaptive supsension, right?

Ahh, you’re right. I misread that. Autopark however says it’s available on all USS cars.

Just yesterday Technology Connections posted a video on how auto-wipers sense a wet windshield. Wouldn’t have anything to do with headlights which I assume is simply ambient light so I would guess a software bug in your case.
(11 min)

I’m fairly positive Tesla does not use a rain sensor and instead rely on a camera. I wish they used a rain sensor.

Yes. And yes.

It’s uploading for me as I type. I love the park assist. I wasn’t aware that the USS guys didn’t have it. I think that all that differs now is that the non-USS cars don’t have Summons. It’s very unlikely that I would use it anyway. I don’t trust it to drive across an entire parking lot to get to me. I could see using it to back out of a space when someone parks to close for me to get into the car but I haven’t had that happen in any car of mine ever.

I just had a chance to watch this video, and he throws serious shade at Tesla. And, I agree! I would prefer they have a dedicated sensor for this rather than their (currently) flawed camera operation.