I feel that most driving will be automated, however sort of a ‘manumatic mode’ will be allowed. If conditions permit one will be allowed to self drive though the computer can override if needed (actually we have that today in a limited form). Manual driving will be a liability which insurance companies will charge plenty for - but the state will self insure those who don’t allow this. Also the safety of models and the algorithm will have to fall to the state, and hence the (state limited) liability. Will a Lexus AI provide more survivability then a Honda (at the expense of the victims) - perhaps but that would be along the lines of the VW clean diesel scandal. Though, not to be so political, the Trump mentality does dictate that you can buy safety for yourself at the direct expense of another and if the current Trump trend in politics prevails it may be that richer cars can out-crash their poorer counterparts with a smile on ol’ orange’s face.
I don’t think the modelling bears this out.Here is a study from UKthat looks at precisely this and even at low penetrations of automatic vehicles, journey times for all vehicles are improved.
The executive summary is the thing to read, particularly the charts on pages 7/8/9 one highlight…
(CAV meaning Connected and Autonomous Vehicles)
I personally look forward to more autonomous vehicles. They will lead to safer roads and faster, less stressful journeys.
I think we will see widespread introduction on the motorways first with clearly defined “autonomous” stretches.
The accident rates and journey times on those stretches will plummet and at point the insurers will step in and penalise those people with auto-functions and who weren’t using it at the time of the accident or those with no auto functions at all. That will drive up acceptance and then those “auto stretches” will spread to more and more roads.
We were actually talking about this over the weekend. I, personally, can’t stand even using cruise control because it makes me feel like I’m not in control of my driving (I literally have nightmares about not being able to turn off CC and the car goes faster and faster).
I love driving and would be concerned that self-driving cars become the law (in 2051 or whatever). I consider myself a very good driver (doesn’t everyone? :D) and would hate to lose the pleasure of driving. Could there be some kind of yearly test that “manual” drivers could take to keep their certification?
This said, I would nominate three drivers this morning who should be mandated to have self-driving cars, they are the drivers who: 1) swerved across two lanes of freeway traffic so they wouldn’t his/her their exit; 2) pulled into 50mph traffic from a turning lane he/she decided he/she didn’t want to be in; and, 3) made a right turn from the not-turning-lane and nearly smooshed the car that was making a legal right turn.
Two things will make the traffic jams go away.
The first, which is already happening, is teleworking. That’s going to get more pervasive over time.
The second does have to do with self-driving cars, but specifically with their shrinkage. The first generation of self-driving cars may look pretty much like the other cars on the road at the time, but the second generation will mostly be single-occupant cars. No back seat, no left and right side seats, just one seat, cutting the width of the car in half, which will enable twice as many cars as now on the same roads.
So why will this happen? Simple:
- The overwhelming majority of car trips, as it is, are with only one person in the car. The question is, why aren’t there one-person cars already?
- The answer is, most people can’t just whistle up a bigger car when we need one. If some of the time, my wife and son and I are going to want to go somewhere together by car, we need to own a car that will hold all three of us. So that’s where the market is.
- Self-driving cars will allow us to whistle up a bigger car when we need one. ZipCar won’t need to be just down the street for us to use it; it can be a few miles away. Family outing? Reserve a car that’s big enough for the family, and it’ll drive itself to your door.
- Once you can get extra car capacity when you need it, you’ll only need to own a one-person car. And the market will evolve to produce them.
Yeah, I have visions of what the fundies say will happen when the Rapture comes - cars losing control and crashing into buildings, people, one another - only without any drivers disappearing.
I’m not sanguine that we’re anywhere near winning the war against hackers. Sure, nobody’s hacked a nuclear missile silo, but that’s because the missiles aren’t directly connected to external comm links. The two operators can be communicated with, but then they each have to physically turn a key.
Besides, the first self-drivers will have to manage in a world where there aren’t any other self-driving cars to communicate with. If they can make it in that environment without inter-car communication, they won’t need it later on either.
I’m all for more CAVs.
My quibble there was with the naïve assumption we often see here at SDMB that CAVs will be perfectly law-abiding to the traditional human-driver laws. IOW, they will ignore the speed of traffic and drive exactly the posted speed limit minus a small fudge factor.
I’m suggesting that expectation is simple-minded and wrong. CAVs will be designed to drive (mostly) with the speed of traffic. With a suitable law carve-out for them, just like the so-called “basic speed law” that applies to humans.
As you say, as the percentage of CAVs climbs in the most favorable environments that will in turn trigger a re-evaluation of what speeds and other rules of the road make sense.
My current issue with self driving cars is that they won’t take me where I don’t know I want to go.
I’m fairly certain that if I type in/speak an address, it will get me to the place I want to go safely, probably far more safely than I could get there myself (and like everyone else, I consider myself a pretty good driver). But one of the joys of driving is being able to veer off the path on a whim (a sign that says “estate sale,” a cool vista out in the distance.) I have no idea how I would communicate to a car that I want to go in the direction of that shimmering thing in the horizon, or find the pointy-ish building with the sign, or chase the sunset.
They’d be horrible for road trips.
How about pointing at it and say go there :smack:
I’m actually expecting higher speeds with CAV’s and no more speed limits, as they would be safer and would play nicely with each other and allow higher speeds of travel and improve traffic conditions. Though this would be more long term.
I don’t think this will happen, however I can see a different lane use pattern which may be more efficient. Not only can one squeeze an extra lane in on a roadway when needed by borrowing space from other lanes, but different lanes could be used exclusively for certain things, like the far left lane would be for trips greater then 60 miles and travel at greater speed unimpeded by those traveling lesser distances. Lane reversals also would be possible, borrowing lanes from the oncoming side. Perhaps even pulling some cars onto the shoulder for a time (stopped or going very slowly) to allow clearing of congestion. Lane markings would need to be ignored for some of this, which since this is an on the fly system would not allow manual driving on roads where this happens.
The dedicated lanes would be great whether or not self-driving cars become standard. I think so many traffic jams are caused by a mass of people being in the wrong lane and needing to merge. The traffic-clearing concept would be an interesting advantage to self-driving cars I’ve never considered.
It still seems to me that self-driving cars will do best on limited-access highways/Interstates. When a self-driving car can navigate through a one-way city street where people are double-parked and there is construction and then navigate through a pickup lane at an elementary school to pick up kids, then I’ll be convinced they are viable to replace human drivers.
Think of what this will do to NASCAR!
We’re living in a world where North Korea just hacked the U.S.-South Korea joint war plans , and the U.S. drone fleet is infected by a virus. Maybe our self-driving cars, when we get them, shouldn’t talk to each other or anything else. Just sayin’.
Not so sure. Let me contribute anecdotal data here (yeah, yeah, I think I represent a large-enough proportion to call this data): I have two cars already, and one of them is not a Ford Fiesta. My Expedition is already my “I have to haul something” or “I’m towing a trailer” vehicle, and using it for trips for two or more people would be perfectly fine. Yet, my daily driver, even though I will be the only occupant ever, will never be something smaller than a C-sized car. I like the space, and I like the roominess, and damn it, a one-person car is too much like public transportation for my liking.
Yes, we snobs are several.
Chevy is testing more autonomous Bolts in California, and they’ve run into an interesting problem.
People are impatient assholes.
https://insideevs.com/autonomous-chevrolet-bolt-hit-human-operated-vehicles/
I think that self-driving cars are for now a bad idea because the self-driving vehicle itself is a distraction i.e. Most people are used to having both hands on the wheel and if the self-driving car does everything that a person-driven vehicle does eventually the “driver” of the self-driving car will take his/her eyes off the road because of the automation and that is the distraction created not to mention the “hack” factor of the unprotected computer in the vehicle.