I can’t imagine Dean doing anything that could possibly offset the disgust of economic conservatives with the current level of drunken-sailor spending or the worst-of-all-possible-worlds situation on social issues (the GOP has gone far enough on a limb to repel moderates, but not actually produces results sufficient to satisfy the Religious Right). They’ll be lucky if they lose only 2 seats.
From the Chris Matthews show last night, via Josh Marshall:
MATTHEWS: Social Security, do you think the president‘s plans for some kind of personal accounts has a better shot now?
SEN. GRAHAM: It has a shot versus no shot. And watch this group of 14 to come out with some deal for Social Security.
MATTHEWS: Really?
SEN. GRAHAM: Just keep watching.
The more I see of the talented Mr. Reid, the more I like. He has all the raw charisma of buttermilk, but he can play a weak hand like nobody’s business.
I’m pleasantly surprised with the outcome, being a pessimist, thats pretty much a redundancy. I figured Dr. Fristh would ram this down their throats and his “moderate” butt-boys would bend over for Jesus. I never know what the heck to expect out of McCain.
I have a lot of sympathy for the position that the Left should have fought tooth and nail, even if it meant that, in the end, all you’d be doing is cussing and spitting out teeth. But I accept the principle of compromise, however distasteful. The other guy might have a point, however adamantly he refuses to accept the Truth and the Light (as herein manifested.)
All in all, a small win for the “center”, wherever the Hell that is anymore. A slender reed of hope. That we may come to a place where progress is achieved through negotiation, gradually bending the dullards to our will at a pace thier tiny minds can assimilate.
One dreams.
I prefer calling those 14 the Mod Squad. I thought theirs was in the best senatorial tradition, done for the good of the country, and that the Gang of Fourteen is a slight against them.
Furthermore I think the Senate itself was was the big winner. That its duty is to cool off hot issues as best as possible and also share the duty of running the country with the President. We haven’t yet seen an historic change to that role, and a specific word was made to the President about consultation.
Whether they are the big winners remains to be seen. However, the think the Republicans have set their course by standing up to the party majority. Lots of Republicans are tired of fiscal irresponsibility, worried about Iraq, not liking potential infringements on individual freedoms, the states being shafted, and even the threat of a neo-theocracy. They may be worried about '06 as well for the party considering some of the worries listed above.
The Democrat mods also have seen a strong grassroots movement in the party that wants to move it in a leftward direction. If that happens those moderates need to prove their worth to the party now or be left behind in 2, 4, 6 years.
I also believe there are other Senators that will stand with the Mod Squad on certain issues, particularly if they show some real muscle. They could wield a lot of power together, and be a unifying force to some degree.
Now, they will stand together with their partys on some issues of principle. For instance, I think the Dems will stand united against SS privatization. But all Senators are used to having quite a bit of influence in that house and that the political environment is due for a change. This may prove to be interesting for the remainder of the 109th Congress.
It’s pretty clear that all the GOP really cared about was getting the filibuster off the table before Rehnquist retires, and they didn’t get it. They could still pull this crap at that point, I suppose, but that seems a lot less likely now. Bush is just going to have to suck it up and not let James Dobson pick the next SC justice.
Frist and Dobson and co. made a huge tactical error, IMO. Consider the debates; even as Bush got his ass handed to him by Kerry in all three debates, he had an army of spinmeisters standing at the ready to declare a clear victory. Had they come out and declared this a victory–after all, they’re getting some of their judges through, and they still have that nuclear button–the press would be treating it as such.
The biggest win for the Democrats is the crack in party cohesion among the GOP. This moderate coalition gives an out to those in the Senate who are tired of Frist and his leadership but don’t want to support the Democrats. Anything that wrests any power away from the theocrats is a good thing.
The Dems lost the short-term battle, but as DoctorJ rightly points out, the real prize is the SCOTUS, and the Dems, for the present, still have the ability to filibuster a nutjob nominee.
I predict if they so much as think of using the filibuster to derail any of Bush’s re-nominated Fed. judge candidates, Frist & Co. will try to take bloody vengeance. The Dems must know this. They’ve been smacked down hard enough that the filibuster should be an absolute last-resort option (if they’re smart), and probably the only worthwhile battle to use that doomsday weapon for is to block a harboiled right-wing idealogue from replacing Rehnquist.
I think the Dem’s gave in on this one, but I am at least intrigued by the end result. This compromise and the house vote on the stem cell issue are both going to be interesting to follow. They remind me of how the more traditional (and true conservative) Republican Party of the past would have reacted.
I disagreed with most of the platforms of the Republican Party before the religious right started wielding power, but their positions were at least defensible back then. This block of people shows me that there are still some Republicans who want their old party back, and that’s a good thing, even if it means that the more moderate leaning of the Democrats give up a fight or two. I’ll be watching to see where this thing goes from here.
The problem I’m having with the compromise is that it doesn’t seem to guarantee the Democrats anything.
Under the terms of the agreement, the 7 moderate Dems agree not to participate in a filibuster of three of the judicial candidates up for review. So those three sail through easy-peasy.
What’s there to stop the Bush Administration from submitting another extremist candidate afterward? The Democrats could complain and threaten another filibuster, but then Frist could pull out the “nuclear option” again – after all, he wasn’t a party to the compromise – and we’re back to where we were. Theoretically, we’ve got seven moderate Republicans who (hopefully) would resist such a move, but Frist and the Senate Republicans would merely need to browbeat three of them into supporting the Nuclear Option again. That’d bring the matter to a 50-50 vote, with Dick Cheney as the tiebreaker – and we can all guess which side he’d take in that fight.
So what, again, do the Dems get out of this?
I believe the Dem moderates saw an out and were able to ‘save face’. At least temporarily.
I believe those Dems clearly realize that percieved obstructionism, like bush-bashin’, is not the answer for their party’s woes and are very mindful of longer term ramifications.
Those are all good points, rjung. This was not an out and out win for the Dems. Nor was it a clear win for the Republicans. It was a compromise, and good compromises leave both sides feeling like they’ve been robbed. I’m probably to the left of you (if ever so slightly), but I can’t help but feel like this is the first bit of sanity I’ve seen in a long time.
To me, the important thing is that Frist and the theocrats have been shown the limits of their power, and that the stonewall unity of the Republicans has been broken. Some people, at least, no longer fear Frist and Bush–or at least they don’t fear them as much as they did on Sunday. And members of both parties found more common ground with each other than with their parties. I maintain that the best thing that could possibly happen to the Repubic right now the emergence of viable third, fourth and fifth parties. Coalition building serves to moderate politics and IMHO produces better outcomes. As loathe as I am to agree with Mr. Moto, this probably isn’t the beginning of the Bull Moose party. But it’s a step in the right direction. Hopefully, the ties forged by the Gang of Fourteen (I like the monkier myself!) will prove durable.
I’d like to know exactly what these “extraordinary circumstances” were set out to be in this accord signed on Monday. Is there a list, or better yet, a copy of the accord itself available somewhere?