I was wondering about the “inherently probabilistic” nature of certain particles as described by physicists. As I understand it, statistics (probability) is our method of estimating the likelihood of any given event given what we KNOW. However, there is a lot that goes on in any given event that we don’t know about, because of all the tiny particles bumping off each other and chaos theory and zillions of minutae. However, all these things are actually occurring, whether we know about them and can measure them or not.
So, are physicists waffling when they say “inherently probabilistic”? Is that code for “I can’t really figure out how the law governing this works exactly, given the limits of our current ability to measure” (since as Cecil once pointed out, the act of observing disturbs the observed)?
Also, if all these tiny things are happening, and in spite of the fact that we aren’t observing, everything is dutifully obeying the physical laws of their nature, then how can we talk about chance and randomness? Don’t all events that occur affect other events in a way that could not have happened differently, i.e., a sort of mathematical determinism? Is reality just a chain of p=1’s? Do philosophers or physicists have any plausible reasons for thinking that the human idea of “choice” in the literal sense is somehow exempt? This has been bugging me for pretty much all of my adult life, and I keep reading books on the subject but I can’t help but think people are just constrained by their comfortable little Universes, because all the physicists I’ve forced to answer this question shrug and say “ain’t my job” or get mystical on me. The philosophers do the same thing. Cecil is my only hope.