I think it will come down to Rand Paul or Chris Christie. I can’t see Ted Cruz getting traction; he has all the charm of chlamydia.
I don’t buy Hillary Clinton as an automatic, either. Sure she has name recognition, which is why she leads in meaningless 2014 polls. She ran a really bad campaign in 2008, not just strategically, but the more she talked the more she said stupid things. I could also see age working against her. Against a younger, sharper republican, she could come off badly.
he’s right behind Mitt in the polls.
I wish I could muster this certainty. I can remember when Nixon was considered unelectable, only to be elected twice.
There is still considerable Bush fatigue out there, among Americans in general and the GOP in particular. Jeb is more of a centrist than Dubya ever was, and that just won’t appeal to your typical Republican primary and caucus voter. Too bad. He’s a smarter, more capable guy than Dubya and would’ve made a better President, I think.
In effect, your last sentence is what’s going on. They gauge how the members of their party react to the idea, they gauge whether fundraising will be effective, and they gauge how the media reacts to the idea.
If Jeb Bush is really interested in running for the presidency, and he compares himself to the Cruz’ and Rand’s of the world, he’d be a very serious candidate for the Republican nomination.
Jeb does have the novelty factor going for him.
To be fair, Dubya set the bar as low as it could possibly get though.
For Bush, the exploratory committee is just way to say he’s in. I think he knows his donors will be there and the business wing of the party is going to be all for it. He’ll also have plenty of support among the evangelicals. It’s the Tea Party that will be his mortal enemy, but when you’ve got the rest of the party for you, the Tea Party isn’t as tough a hurdle to overcome. Plus the Tea Party support is likely to be divided among several candidates, while Bush will probably have the non-Tea Party support all to himself.
However, the polling isn’t that great. He’s got 15% right now:
I think he’ll be looking for that number to rise into the 30s or 40s now that he’s seriously considering getting in. There may still be Bush fatigue even among many Republicans. Plus this is going to be a change election. I don’t think you counter an old political name with another old political name. We need a fresh face. If Bush says, “I’m in” and enough polled GOP voters say, “meh”, and he stays around 15%, then he might decide it’s not worth the trouble.
I laughed.
I kinda like Webb. Unfamiliar with O’Malley. Biden is a bad joke. Dean, yesterday’s news. And I found it unappealing then.
Jindal is my favorite of the list. I like Kasich, but don’t think he has the mental heft I’d like in a President. I’m so-so about Pence and have grown to really not like Lindsay Graham.
If Jeb compares himself to Rand or Cruz he doing some serious drugs. He’s the antithesis of those guys. He’s the business as usual glad-hander Rep that the Chamber of Commerce masturbate over. He’s one guy that will not be getting my vote. I’ll stay home of vote for a third party.
I think the Cuba news today might sink Rubio’s chances, and possibly any other Republicans who make re-instituting the full embargo a significant part of their platform – the public overwhelmingly supports greater engagement with Cuba (73% nationally and 79% in Florida), and a large majority supports normalizing relations with Cuba (56% nationally and 63% in Florida).
It will be interesting to see if Republican candidates go full court against this new policy or just accept and ignore it.
I can’t stand Lindsay Graham, but I do look forward to electing our first gay president.
It’s not really going out on a limb to predict that the candidate who wins will have a mixed record of right-wing views and centrist views and the political chops to sufficiently represent himself as a staunch conservative in the primary while persuading the establishment that he is electable in the general. Those two factors are necessary and probably sufficient for someone to win the 2016 GOP primary.
Who has them? Bush can do it. Portman, too. Kasich maybe. Romney if he runs. Christie is probably too liberal. Most of the rest are too conservative, too unskilled, or both. They’ll run, but they won’t win.
If Bush runs, I doubt Portman, Kasich, or Romney runs. And who else is gonna out-Romney/McCain/Dubya him to win the GOP primary? Nobody. There’ll be some headwinds with the family name, but not if Clinton looks to be the Dem nominee, as she will.
Sorry, James Buchanan beat him to it.
Larry Sabato has a neat table outlining the pluses and minuses for most the D and R potential candidates.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/only-700-days-to-go/
A better analogy would be if Nixon’s brother ran for president a decade after Watergate.
On Christie: Disadvantage: Roots for the Dallas Cowboys 
Rubio is the only one who is bound to the issue, who can’t not talk about it, a lot, from the losing side. Several others have made statements against Obama’s action, but apart from Rubio they’ll be able to largely ignore it later.
Rand Paul has seized the engage-Cuba position among likely Republican contenders. Christie has been carefully quiet.
Most of the more libertarian oriented Republicans seem to be backing the administration.However, the Democrats’ only Cuban Congressman, Bob Menendez, is none too pleased.