This is petty, I’ll admit to that, but it’s got enough juice to get me to start a thread about it.
Ok, here goes. I’m in an office confidence pool/league (all playoff games and the superbowl are worth 1-11, you place a number next to the team you think will win and the higher the number you use, the more confident you are of that pick) for the NFL playoffs (I can hear you guys leaving the thread already) and I picked all four correctly this weekend . I put 4, 5, 8, and 9 points respectively on the winning teams giving me 26 points so far.
There are about 30 people in this thing and 5 of us picked all four correctly but I had the most points out of that group. Another guy picked three out of four but since he used higher numbers (9, 10, and 11) he has 30 points so far. However, he missed an 8 point pick so his 8 pts is off the table (he can’t use the number 8 anymore so the most he can get is the total-8 or 58 pts instead of 66).
I however am in the catbird seat and can still get all 66 points (like the other four in my group).
I claimed that I was effectively in first place since I am leading the group with all correct picks so far and have a better winning percentage than the guy with 30 points. I also can still get the maximum of 66. He can’t.
My co-worker insists that I’m not in first place because the other guy has more points than me.
Whose right?
See, it is pretty petty, but you guys are the best at solving pretty petty arguments like this, so help me pretty-please.
What determines the ultimate winner? Number of points of percentage of correct picks plus points.
If it is just total points that will decide the outcome than he is in first place.
I vote that whoever has the most points at any given time is “winning” and you should settle for being smug that you got all the winning teams correct and still have the potential to get the maximum number of points in the end.
Just because you still have the potential to get a higher total does not mean you’re “winning.”
Think of it this way. If a handicap was given at the outset, so that that guy was unable to reach the total of 66 points before anyone won anything, he wouldn’t start the game losing. His odds would be lower, but based on the winning condition (number of points) he’d be tied with everyone at zero.
That’s actually a common debate in Bar’s across the country. I have always been a follower of the “least points lost” school, but the majority seem to follow the “most points made”.
It does get complicated in pools for elimination tournaments, but you do have to include future unwinnable points(picked a teamn in the second round, that lost in the first) in points lost version, and that can’t be represented in a most points made scoring.
I think your coworker is right. Even though you may have a greater probability to win than he does, he’s winning right now.
Analogy time: you are both running a marathon. He sprints for the first five miles and ends up half a mile ahead of you. At that moment he is winning, even though you are pretty sure his actions will hurt his overall time and you’ll pass him down the road.
Anyway, I guess I was looking at it like the guy with 30 points really had 30-X (x=some number - I was trying to find a way to punish him for being wrong, but that way doesn’t make sense) but that isn’t the correct way to view it since you can’t take points away from his current total. He may finish with only 30 and I may finish with only 26 (if we both guess wrong the rest of the way) and there is no guarantee that I will pick wisely enough to pass him, although I have the greater potential at this point to pass him.
If I had to pick the two situations to be in I’d probably pick mine, since I’ve still got the potential to go all the way, he doesn’t. And I don’t like the way he laid his heavy points down so early in the playoffs like that. The match-ups were too close to be putting your highest confidence in the early games like he did.
Ok, so the new question is which spot would you rather be in, mine or his?
And believe me, I give two shits about the actual outcome, this is only for fun and your input is just an excersize in logic, nothing more.
