You know the drill.
Without any context, I’ll assume it’s co-ed tag-team arm-wrestling. I call it for Shawn and Gus. Shawn and Adrian are of no effect one way or the other, given the wussiness of their given names (all I really have to go by). Natalie, of course, is a scrapper to the bone – find me a waitress from Joisey who ain’t – but inevitably Gus’s ham-sized Milwaukee forearms (bulked from 20+ years of pork butchery) will carry his team through. No thanks to Shawn, of course.
In a fight or competing to solve a mystery?
Hmm. Well, Adrian is smarter than Shawn, but Shawn has the advantage of being younger, fitter, not afraid to touch things, and, well, sane. Gus will be reluctant to hit Natalie, which she’ll realize quickly and exploit for her own amusement. So in a fight it may be a draw.
If they’re competing to solve a mystery it could go either way. Their basic schtick is the same, but Adrian has a broader range of knowledge. If the two teams are not permitted to interact, the Monk crew take it. If interaction is permitted, it’s Shawn & Gus, as Shawn will mess with Adrian’s head, and while Natalie will try to stop him, Gus will distract her with his cuteness. So in that case it’s the Psych crew–unless their respective cop buddies are the. Strottlemeyer is fairly protective of Monk, so he may well decide to kick the crap out of Shawn if the mind-fuck goes too far; Lassiter, contrariwise, can just barely tolerate Shawn, and thus is unlikely to help unless a gun is drawn.