Technically, the Korean War never ended, but is it likely that NK will actually break the cease-fire in response to joint SK and US military drills? It seems to me that Kim-Jong-Il is little more than a small dog with a loud bark. Technically, they could fire a shot if they will detonate an EMP bomb that they are building, according to leftist-leaning ABCnews. http://abcnews.go.com/International/electronic-warfare-north-korea-nears-completion-electromagnetic-pulse/story?id=13081667 The right wing FoxNews.com has yet to say anything regarding North Korea. In the face of Libya, they kinda put everything else on the back burner.
Unlikely since the end result of a war would be their destruction. They’d do a huge amount of damage thanks to all their artillery aimed at Seoul, but in the end the present regime would be gone.
Depends on what you mean by break the truce. Over the entire life of the truce, North Korea has made quite a few violations of it, most notably in the last few months with the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island.
A better question might be, “Will North Korea actually commit to a full-blown war against South Korea and the UN Forces?” I think the answer to that is, and always will be, “No. Never.” For one thing, China is very intent on keeping what the call stability in this region. Another reason is that North Korea’s armed forces, while large, are not equipped well enough to defeat the UN Forces.
Okay, sure. Will North Korea actually Commit to a full blown war against South Korea and UN Forces? I’m sure with all the nuclear material they have, they’ve got enough nukes to bring about the 2nd Ice Age.
No. Nothing much to gain (I’m confident the leadership recognizes that it has no realistic chance of conquering SK) and quite a lot to lose.
As for the second half of your remarks, was that supposed to be joke of some kind? I was under the impression that the general consesnus is that NK could build no more than about five low-yield fission weapons with its available stocks of nuclear material. Not trivial of course, but hardly enough to bring about a nuclear winter.
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Yeah, but you should NEVER take something at it’s face value, and if you didn’t already know, people lie. I wouldn’t put it past Kim Jong Il to have some more fissionable materials stockpiled away somewhere outside his country, ready to have it shipped to his palace when he needs it.