Recent events have gotten multiple anonymous Democratic sources to say that they’re resigned to losing the Presidential race. The words themselves don’t carry as much weight with me as what they mean for action; I have an entire thread about this.
So what action would such words translate into? As someone on another thread pointed out, that could mean that money and effort would leave the Presidential race in favor of Congressional races in order to blunt the effects of a second Trump administration as much as is possible.
It won’t happen. Democrats need the Presidential race to be as competitive as possible to boost turnout that’s vital for the lower races. It’s impossible to believe that the billion or two that goes to the President would ever be transferred to the Congressional or state races. That’s wasted money without turnout. Far more likely that donors come to their senses and spend as always no matter what the situation on top is.
I’m in the camp that believe the presidential race is slipping away from the Dems, and yet I agree entirely with this:
It’s one thing to basically abandon a single doomed Senate or House race in order to funnel funds and support to other winnable races. Abandoning the presidential campaign is a different matter entirely, and would have massive knock-on effects all the way down the ballot. The White House must be contested to the end, even fruitlessly, because with a sitting President the Dems have a publicity pulpit like no other.
Whether they use it effectively is a different question. But simply turning their backs on it would be madness.
It might be possible to devote some resources to share data with downballot campaigns. Normally presidential campaigns have much better (and closely guarded) voter data than congressional campaigns, let alone state & local. But it’s kind of late for that sort of effort, I think?
The way these things work as I understand is these companies collect the data, and charge $$$ for access. So either pay more $$$ to release the data, or pay more $$$ to have consultants in the presidential campaign advise your downballot campaign.
$90M was spent on McGrath to unseat McConnell and $50M was spent on Harrison to unseat Lindsay Graham and they lost by 20 and 10 points respectively. Beyond a certain, fairly low threshold, money simply does not move the needle on downballot races. Because of the FPTP/EC system of American elections, there’s only a few races that actually matter and everyone knows who they are and there’s enough money in the system from small donors that flush those campaigns with cash. Big donors should be smart enough to know that adding more firepower downballot is just setting their money on fire.
“About both candidates” meaning “there are already plenty of quotes from anonymous Democrats that Biden can’t win and that Trump has already won the presidency.”
So I was wondering how these people would put their money where their mouth is (literally), and if they weren’t, then what is the point of their going crying to the media?
Right? What the heck is their problem. There’s no way Republicans would be publicly talking about getting ready for another four years of a Dem president. I cannot believe how badly the Democrats are handling this, at all levels – politicians, advisors, contributors.
I raised this point in another thread, but in the last two Presidential election cycles, in only one instance did a state vote for a President and a Senator of different parties. That’s unprecedented since the 17th Amendment required the direct election of Senators.
So yes, it would be foolish to think you can cast aside Biden and still save the Democratic Senate majority. The top of the ticket drives turnout for your party, and ticket-splitters have all but disappeared in federal races.
Even if they wanted to change who they paid for, I can’t see why that would lead them to say these things out loud. It would be the type of thing you’d just do.
Are we sure it’s not still about trying to pressure Biden to step down?
To be clear, I’m not saying that anyone has actually said directly that they want to divert money (at least, not that I’ve seen). But when I read all the “the presidency is lost” quotes because of both Biden and Trump from anonymous Democrats, it made me wonder what they’d be doing right now if they were sincere, and this was one of the few things I could think of (besides, as you said, pressuring Biden).
Only in states where Biden is a lock - and, at least in California, they probably already do. I can’t remember the last time I saw a Senate ad in California for either side. In fact, I am convinced that one of the reasons Ohio “suddenly” went from Kerry to Bush in 2004 (which led to the whole “The Diebold machines were rigged!” thing) was an influx of money that wasn’t used on any advertising for the Republican Senate candidate in California that year. In fact, San Francisco’s PBS station offered something like two minutes of free air time to every Senate candidate that wanted it, and while it included a candidate whose platform was pretty much “abolish income tax and replace Federal Reserve currency with United States Bank currency,” pretty much the only candidate absent was the Republican one.
I would argue the opposite. If you believe insider accounts, there was months where it was increasing apparent to an ever widening circle of insiders that Biden was going through spells of not being himself and the party was able to maintain internal discipline to never let it leak and concertedly shut down anyone who insinuated anything was going on.
That people are blabbing now isn’t a sign of lack of disciple so much as the same disciple applied in the other direction.