Why not? Look at what happened in Russia after Communism fell there.
Thanks I understand now.
Cuba and Berlin are different situations in many ways, not least of which is that Cuba is an island, where routes in and out for people or information are much more easily controlled by the government. Also, I don’t know what was the final straw that allowed the Germans to take the step away from communism, but I can’t imagine what that step would be for Cuba. Cubans literaly starved to death during the Special Period, and the most we could muster up was one demonstration in Havana, the government then eased up some of the controls on food and electricity and Havana has not seen another demonstration against the government.
But that wasn’t the American mob taking over! Those were homegrown Russian mobsters.
The Sicilian mafia is most certainly not waiting to take over Cuba as soon as the embargo is lifted. Come on people, use your heads. The mafia doesn’t care about the embargo, for crying out loud. How does the existance of the embargo deter American mobsters from operating in Havanna today?
No, what prevents American mobsters from operating in Havanna is the Cuban government who now runs the hotels, casinos, and so on. There’s no unfilled niche for mobsters to open up their own resorts any more than there’s a niche for mobsters to open casinos in Las Vegas.
The only opening for mobsters is with the cooperation of the Cuban government. But what incentive does the government of Cuba have to cooperate with the mobsters? Any amenities that the mobsters could provide the current or future Cuban government could also provide. Gambling, whores, rum, goons to crack the skulls of the uncooperative…there is nothing the mobsters can bring to the table.
Sure, there will be organized crime in Cuba. But the American mafia isn’t going to control Cuban organized crime, any more than it controls organized crime in Mexico, Russia, Haiti, Jamaica, Belize, Venezuela, or Columbia. The glory days shown in “The Godfather” are long gone. Sure, the Sicilian mafia still exists, but they are a shadow of their former selves. They aren’t expanding ANYWHERE, and they certainly aren’t going to expand in Cuba. There will be a homegrown Cuban mafia, and you can bet your boots that when the current Cuban regime crumbles that the core of the future Cuban mafia will be people who are powerful in the Cuban government, military and police today. These guys have put the squeeze on Cuba for 50 years, they aren’t going to be scared by a couple of goombahs from Jersey.
Are you asking if organized crime will exist in Cuba, or if organized crime will take over Cuba?
The Russian mafia was pretty well established. Does Cuba have a similarly well-established mafia? I honestly don’t know. I googled “cuban mafia” but it’s mostly about Cubans in America.
As far as I know there is not organized crime in Cuba, in the same sense as an American or Russian mafia. There is plenty of crime, but no organization beyond a few criminals operating together here and there out of convenience.
The American MAFIA still needs places to launder cash. When Cuba opens up, the existing hotels/casinos will be sold off on the cheap, and will be bought by Mob-controlled firms. If necessary, the mob will start small-(by buying up service companies, restaurants, etc. this is how they bough into the casinos in the Bahamas, years ago.
Cuba has the added attraction of cheap wages and low costs-the mob can make a fortune there, just as was done in the days of Meyer Lansky.
Well, if the mob controls hotels and casinos, and I’m not saying they don’t, they’re doing a pretty good job of running Las Vegas. I’m not scared to go there.
Cuban hotels, there are no casinos so far, are owned either majority owned or completely owned by the Cuban government. The only way any organized crime will buy anything in Cuba is with the approval of the Cuban government, I think that’s unlikely.
I think we’re talking about after the Castro regime collapses.
But if these hotels are such a good deal, how is the mafia going to outbid Carnival Cruises and Club Med? If the Cuban government is selling off nationalized assets they don’t have to sell them cheap, they can sell them on the open market. Sure in Russia national assets were sold off to mobsters for kopeks on the ruble, but these were instances where the officials selling the national assets were already creatures of the mafia. The russian mafia already had sufficient control over the collapsing government to sell these things to themselves.
Does such a situation seem likely to occur in Cuba? No, if national assets somehow get sold off to organized crime syndicates they’ll be sold to syndicates that have connections in the old government. The Jersey mob doesn’t have any inside men in the Castro regime and that’s what you need when you’re trying to loot the collapsing government.
Sure, the mafia needs ways to launder money. Why aren’t they laundering it in Haiti or Jamaica? What makes post-Castro Cuba such a great place to launder money? Cheap wages and low costs exist all over the Carribean and Latin America.
Look, the mob had extraordinary influence in Cuba during the 40s and 50s. But those days are over and there’s absolutely no reason for them to return. I know some people like to imagine the mafia returning Cuba to what it was during the 50s, but that was a generation ago. The American mafia hasn’t taken over any other small countries in the 50 years since the Cuban revolution, why is that? Why is Cuba but only Cuba uniquely suited to mafia domination? It doesn’t make sense.
And lastly, the notion that “once Cuba opens up the the existing hotels/casinos will be sold off on the cheap” is just laughable. You do know that Cuba IS ALREADY OPEN, right? Those hotels are already packed with tourists from Canada and Europe. They are a cash cow for the Cuban government. Only Americans for some reason have the idea that Cuba is like North Korea. It just isn’t. Even when the Castro regime collapses, tourism dollars will be the primary revenue stream for the new government, why would they sell their only moneymaking assets to some guys from Jersey? There are all sorts of foreign investors in Cuba RIGHT NOW, making money hand-in-hand with Castro. It’s just that these investors aren’t Americans. And if the Cuban government liberalizes and reforms and even denationalizes these firms are the ones that will reap the benefits. After all, these firms already put up the money to build these hotels, why would these foreign firms sell their shares to Pauly Walnuts for pennies on the dollar?
This is like imagining that if Saudi Arabia collapses, the mafia will come in and buy up all the oil wells cheap. Or expecting Chiang Kai-Shek to be unleashed any day once Red China collapses. Or expecting Meyer Lansky and Lucky Luciano to rise from their graves just because Fidel enters his. It don’t make no sense.
The US isn’t cutting off their internet access or stopping them from leaving the country. That’s a direct result of the Cuban communist government. The people have no choice in the matter and cannot vote in a different political party.
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My apologies for what part I might have had in that impression – like I said, yes we have a dreadful economic quagmire, but my point here is it’s one that results from a failure of US domestic policies – as things are going Detroit may end up worse than us by the Spring – rather than comparable to one in a proper sovereign nation.
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Still, however, you DO have the point that saying “Cuba becomes another Puerto Rico” is not necessarily a desirable development, save for a small group of Floricubans who are thinking of annexation. We’re a US jurisdiction that’s doing badly; what you want to get some day in Cuba is a Latin American sovereign nation that’s doing well. Parameters differ.
And speaking of that, I’m sorry but I think ralph is grossly overestimating what easy pickings Cuba would be to the American Mafia these days. With most forms of old-school vice already legalized in much of the USA, economic globalization opening up tax/laundering havens all over the place, and indeed globalization of organized crime itself, they dont need it *that *much and in any case would have to compete with Mexicans, Colombians, Panamanians, Russians, etc. And who knows, maybe the future transitional government would still be tough on law-enforcement…