Yeah, but it becomes kinda a semantics issue. A Taiwanese monarch with ties to the old Ming regime surrendered to the Qing monarch and received a nice title and commission and Taiwan was declared a prefecture. That said monarch had never controlled more than one chunk of Taiwan and Taiwan generally remained a poorly assimilated hotbed of revolt was neither here nor there as far as the Qing themselves were concerned. An unruly, rebellious prefecture was still just a prefecture in their eyes, not a distinct state with any standing.
It’s a bit like speculating whether the Great Plains acquired by the U.S. via the Louisiana Purchase in 1803 was actually part of the U.S. when it was still filled with hostile, independent tribes like the Lakota. You could argue either way depending on your POV.
The country is the People’s Republic of China. The Chinese Communist Party is a political organization that runs the country.
The People’s Republic of China is technically not a one-party state. In order to maintain the fig leaf that they allow dissent, the country is ruled by a coalition of nine political parties. But the one that’s clearly in charge if the CCP and the other eight are just tokens.
I think, that the government of Taiwan should be very wary of antagonizing China because of current events.
The question really for Taiwan is : who can it count as an ally ? The US has clearly stated it’s policy of America first even to NATO. The US has clearly ditched the Afghans and thrown them to the wolves. China has been quietly and steadily buying businesses in the US since the COVID crisis and although China’s influence is invisible, it is very much there in US politics.
Australia and much of Africa is in China’s pocket and Russia will support China blindly. UK wields political influence a mere shadow of its former self and will be dealing with BREXIT a long time to come.
With that premise, The real question is what will Taiwan gain by joining this observer group ? And what will it lose ?
I don’t think you’ve been keeping up on current events wrt Australia. Far from being in China’s pocket, they have really pissed the Chinese off with their call for an international probe. To the point where it’s possible their meat exports to China are in real danger (though I understand the US, given our current shortfall in meat, is in discussions with the Aussies about buying that for us). Even Africa (which is a bunch of different countries that are hardly in lockstep with each other over anything, including China), at least in several countries, have pushed back against the Chinese over how badly many of their nationals have been treated in China at various points in this crisis, and how badly they have been portrayed in a lot of Chinese media and propaganda. This isn’t to say that China doesn’t have a lot of countries by the short and curlies, but I think there is more push back happening against China atm than you think.
As to the US and Taiwan, I’d say…depends. Right now, US/Taiwan relations seem to be at a high point, with many US officials actively praising Taiwan and even trying, against China’s fervent demands, to get Taiwan reinstated as an observer…which is what this thread is about, after all. We have also done several recent sales of arms, again over the protests of the Chinese, as well as a bunch of ‘freedom of navigation’ exercises which sent US warships into contested areas in and around Taiwan…again, much to the displeasure of the Chinese, with several confrontations happening (and less anyone think this is just academic to me, I have 2 sons in the area, both on ships doing these things, which has freaked me and my wife out quite a bit).
No, the Republic of China has never officially renounced the One-China Policy. Although they have strongly hinted they would be willing to if the People’s Republic of China did not object.
Exactly. The real issue isn’t that Taiwan wants to or even thinks, realistically that they COULD claim all of the mainland, it’s that the CCP won’t LET them renounce it. Hell, they have directly threatened them if they even talk about it. Currently, the CCP is blustering (with real steel behind the bluster) about taking some of the islands that Taiwan has citizens on and claims if the Taiwanese don’t toe the line or if ‘secessionists’ don’t shut up and stop talking about this stuff.
It’s not a choice for Taiwan to renounce their claims on the mainland, as that would pretty much throw into question the entire One-China Policy. This has been so for a while now, as China is really pushing this One-China, Two Systems thing…specifically with Taiwan in mind.
XT - I admire your enthusiasm and optimism but I am not buying it.
There is a lot of political posturing going around all over the world but that won’t amount to much. People want to go back to business as usual and China’s domination is business as usual. Have you been to Australia or Canada ? Many of the key businesses are owned by the Chinese.
There was a lot of talk about taking Saudi Arabia to court over 911 or even recently over the murder of a reporter. Lots of political posturing but see how it all went away ? Convince me that this time it’s different.
That said, it is a different issue, if the results of renouncing claims to China, Mongolia, India, Nepal and elsewhere might set off a belligerent neighbor to annex islands/invade/set off a nuclear strike on both sides.
Taiwan, certainly under threat of retaliation, could
The Chinese government has stated that while it is willing to voluntarily forego using military means to bring Taiwan back under Chinese control, there are two things that Taiwan could do that would end this policy; declare independence or develop nuclear weapons.
In other words, Taiwan can renounce its claims to the mainland and declare independence. But the cost would be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Taiwan has less than 300,000 troops. China has over 2,500,000 troops. It’s easy to predict what the outcome would be.
So Taiwan’s free will in this situation seems to be pretty meaningless.
It goes further than that. China has also announced before that Taiwan entering into a formal military alliance with a foreign nation (e.g., America or Japan,) or falling into domestic turmoil or chaos, or indefinitely refusing to move towards unification, would also be triggers for Chinese military action.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not likely to succeed. China has very limited amphibious and airlift capability and technology today favors the defender, not the attacker, in a D-Day type of landing. Only a fraction of China’s army would be able to cross the Strait and even then very few beachheads would be suitable for a landing. (Ian Easton, a defense analyst, recently published a book that examines this topic in exhaustive detail.) Having 2.5 million troops is not meaningful; the true important number is the number that makes it across the Strait *and *manages to push inland. Furthermore, it would be a lot easier for Taiwan to muster regulars and mobilized reservists to the point of attack than it would be for China to send reinforcements to that point of attack (a Chinese landing at Taoyuan or Keelung, for instance, would be only a few hours’ walk or bike or vehicle away from many hundreds of thousands of reservists.) Taiwan also owns several big islands in the Strait itself (Kinmen, Matsu and the Pescadores) which also serve as tripwires and could attack a Chinese fleet from behind (if China neutralizes them first, it would take days or weeks and would bleed a lot of its military strength while also losing all element of surprise for the subsequent main attack on Taiwan proper.)
A Chinese blockade, on the other hand, would stand a far better chance of success. Taiwan has only 2 modern submarines versus China’s 70+, and a surface fleet that would be heavily outgunned by China’s. In addition, a blockade could be done by interdicting Taiwan-bound shipping far from Taiwan itself (most of Taiwan’s warships lack much reach or range.) Taiwan, having almost no coal or petroleum itself, is also heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels, and would be starved out of fuel within months.