This may be more of a GD question, so feel free to move it there. If China were to assert its claim to Taiwan, it could trigger embargoes or possibly even start a war, all of which would be bad for China. If it were to slog through that, what would it have gained? The Taiwanese tax base? A focus for the population?
On the opposite side, if it were to acknowledge Taiwan’s de facto independence, what would the ramifications be?
Thanks,
Rob
There is too much business on both sides of the straits to really worry about either side taking action. Many Taiwanese companies do business with Chinese factories. No one in government or business really wants to change the status quo, but it is good for fomenting support if you’re a politician.
That said, China’s claim to Taiwan is about exerting power. Because of that claim, most countries do not have official diplomatic relationships with Taiwan. This gives China more power in the region. Besides, what does China have to gain by relinquishing the claim?
It would set a precedent that parts of China can become separate countries. “Countires” don’t like that in general; e.g., the U.S. Civil War.
It worked for Hong Kong, didn;t it?
They’d get trouble in Tibet and Xinjiang, as the Tibetans and Uighurs would want to become independent, too.
A generation ago, many/most people in Taiwan would have regarded conquest by the mainland Chinese with horror.
But today? I don’t know, but I can’t help wondering… given the wealth and power mainland China now has, and the RELATIVE freedoms the people there now enjoy, mightn’t more than a few nationalistic Chinese on Taiwan now WELCOME reunification, if the mainlanders would just stop being so heavy-handed about the whole thing?
If the mainlanders would use just a little charm, they could probably make reunification sound like a very desirable proposition.
Yes, re-unification without armed conflict would be a real possibility there. The governments on both sides are relatively sane, and their policies seem to be moving closer and closer. Unlike Korea, where the rulers in the North are clearly insane and doing nothing to move towards realistic relations with the South.
Well…China has claimed ALL of the continental shelf (PDF) (or out to 200 miles) off its coast to be its exclusive economic zone that only they can develop.
Any areas where this conflicts with a neighboring country they say will be settled in accordance with international law.
Taiwan is about 100 miles off the coast of China. So, you can see, China is basically saying they own all the resources of that island as well as around it and China needs oil that may be found there.
In practical terms China has zero chance of successfully invading Taiwan. The British of held on because of a mere 25 miles of water separating them from the mainland time and again. Including a very determined and geared up German war machine. China simply has nowhere near the sealift capacity to get a meaningful number of troops onto Taiwan for a successful invasion of any sort especially considering they need to cross 100 miles of ocean.
That said China may well tell Taiwan they will blow up any oil rigs in areas they deem “theirs”. Since Taiwan lacks international recognition China need not deal with them under international law and may well do with the area as they please…or try to anyway.
China doesn’t have anything close to relative freedom. The people on Taiwan be they Taiwanese or Chinese mainland refugees aren’t gonna give that up.
China has an OK navy but not enough to take Taiwan. Remember how Hitler couldn’t take Britian and the English Channel was much less of a challenge.
The big thing is China doesn’t want military action. As other posters have noted China like the trade. For example, anytime after 1950 China could’ve walked into Hong Kong and Macau with virtually no effort. But did they? After the Portuguese dictatorship ended in the mid 70s, Portugal tried to give back Macau, the Chinese didn’t want it. Portugal referred to it as Chinese territory under Portuguese administration.
One can alway find arguments for one country to claim another. China doesn’t want to encourage independence movements by allowing one part to break from it.
This was the same reason the Soviet Union wasn’t keen to recognize the independence of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Or why Yugoslavia didn’t want to let Croatia and Slovenia leave. Though it’s not an exact analogy, you get the point.
We have a similar thing in Africa. Colonial rulers drew those boundries and they are horrible boundries. They have little regard to any of the ethnic groups. But Africa is loathe to allow any changes to boundries. In fact the only real change has been seperating Eritria from Ethiopia.
Uh, no. Nominal GDP per capita in China is $3259 compared to $16,987 in Taiwan. The Taiwanese enjoy a robust economy with very good education, medical, and pension benefits. The country is fully democratic and ranks high in most measures of personal and economic freedom.
The Taiwanese would be nuts to give this up - either by seeking reunification or inviting it by acting in an overly belligerent manner toward China.
Taiwan has liberalized far more than China did. In the beginning it was a one-party system, basically. About 30 years ago I knew someone from Taiwan who said that pictures of Chairman Mao were forbidden on the island. Would they give up their one party system for Communism? Would the mainlanders allow them to maintain a two party system? Not likely.
Exactly. As of today, the PLAN (China’s Navy) does not have the power projection capability that would allow for a successful invasion and occupation of Taiwan, especially considering the US’s vow to defend Taiwan.
China is, however, spending a substantial amount of money on modernizing the PLAN and transforming it into a blue water navy with amphibious warfare capabilities. The types of units the PLAN is acquiring definitely point to an interest in developing the capability for a Taiwan-type invasion scenario, and China certainly wants Taiwan to feel this pressure.
It’s not really an issue of China claiming Taiwan. From a legal standpoint, the government in Beijing and the government in Taipei are in agreement that there is only one country and they both state that they are the sole legitimate government for the whole country.
Imagine that back in 2000 the election dispute had been a little more heated and both Bush and Gore claimed they had won the election. Both candidates were inaugurated on January 20, 2001. The red states would recognize the Republican Bush Administration and the blue states would recognize the Democrat Gore Adminsitration.
But they’re not officially dividing the country. Both sides are claiming to be the sole government for all of the United States even if some parts of the country don’t recognize their authority. So it would be wrong to ask why Bush is claiming New York or why Gore is claiming Georgia - they’re both claiming the United States as a whole.
What has always puzzled me is mainland China’s claim that Taiwan is a renegade province. Given the communist regime has never ruled Taiwan, it can hardly be said to have reneged on anything. They failed to conquer it in 1949 (when perhaps they could have) but speak as if it rebelled out of their control. What advantage is there to them to use a factually inaccurate term?
This is the Straight Dope, can we please use the proper name Democratic and not the improper “Democrat” that the conservative press seems to prefer.
To turn the question around, what does the west gain by accepting China’s denial of reality?
What I don’t get is why the entire west doesn’t stand together and say “actually this is kind of crazy Taiwan is for all practical purposes a country and we’ll recognise them.”
Yeah sure if France or Australia alone were to try this China could hurt us economically but if the EU, US, Canada, Au, NZ were all to recognise Taiwan in unison theres not much China could do, who are they going to sell all those electronics to if they try to embargo all those countries?
A while back Taiwan’s government sort of informally acknowledged that Beijing controls the mainland. China’s government has not reciprocated vis-a-vis Taipei’s governance of Taiwan.
The funny thing is, if Taiwan’s government said formally that “you’re right: our government here in Taipei has no connection to any constituency on the mainland and from now on, in fact and in law, we will mind our own affairs here in Taiwan while you mind yours in the mainland” . . . the result would be China declaring war on Taiwan. 'Cause it would be effectively declaring independence, which the PRC will not tolerate.
So I wouldn’t put too much stock into the two governments being “in agreement” about jack.
The Chinese political class live in fear or “War lord-ism.”
You see, in the early years of the last century, China was broken up by local governments who paid only lip service to the center. This, the Chinese thinking goes, led to the domination of China by Europeans and the disastrous war with Japan. (Others hold the war lords were a result of the break up of the center, rather than other way around.)
So separatism is huge no-no to the people in Peking. It is something they are willing to go to war over.
This line of thinking is made stronger by the so-called "peaceful rise"of China. Mao said something to the effect that after China was liberated, they would then help the (separate) peoples of Tibet, Taiwan and Korea. WHen China was poor, nobody thought those nations were part of China. Now that it is possible, the idea is almost irresistible.
A sidelight of this doctrine is China’s desire to overturn the unequal treaties""with various European nations, especially Russia.
By the way, now that mainland tourists are able to travel to Taiwan, they’ve turned out to be a bit of a disappointment to local merchants in one respect: rather than staying out to sample the local night life, they’re absolutely ga ga to hurry back to their hotel rooms to turn on the TV and watch Taiwan’s raucous political talk shows and their consistent theme that all politicians (including the ones in Beijing!) are preening clowns worthy of ridicule.
Can’t get that kind of thing back home, you know.
Let’s clarify this shall we please? In recent decades, China has always officially paraphrased something along the lines of “China reserves the right to take all steps necessary including force should ROC/Taiwan claim formal independance.”
slightly different from the “China will invade 2 minutes after Taiwan makes a declaration of independance.”
I would turn the OP’s question around and then it should be clear. What does China gain by renouncing claims to Taiwan?
From a China point of view, there’s a lot of downside and frankly pretty poor upside by doing so. The world including Taiwan already invests heavily in China. I can’t think of any significant nation that recognizes Taiwan and not China.
Paul in Qatar: interestingly enough, I’ve never ever heard a mention of Russia and the unequal treaties. Nor any mention of needing to re-unify Outer Mongolia. Ironically enough, it is the Republic of China in Taiwan that claims Outer Mongolia, which is the biggest chunk of the unequal treaties that Russia gained. At least they did in the 90’s and not sure if that’s changed recently. ROC maps drew Outer Mongolia as part of China. Here is a Wiki linkthat shows the different claims that ROC has to Outer Mongolia, Russia, Burma, India, Bhutan, Afganistan & Pakistan.
Both the PRC and ROC claim the Spratleys and Diayutai Islands. PRC has claims down to the Natuna sea area around Indonesia as well.
