In light of what’s happened in Ukraine, should the three Baltic countries cut all or most roads and rail connections to Russia (including Kaliningrad) and Belorus? Russia has demonstrated that it’s willing to invade the “near abroad”, which includes the Baltic countries. Is it feasible to cut off roads and rails now, to make it more difficult for Russia to invade in the future? Or cut off most of them, and leave the few connecdtions heavily guarded? They would then be relying on the connection to Poland and to the Baltic Sea for their communications to the rest of Europe.
If I were them, I wouldn’t physically cut all the lines, because the hope would be that at some point in the future, Russia gets its head out of its ass and becomes a civilized trading partner once again.
But what I would do is make very public and ostentatious preparations for destroying every bridge, tunnel, and overpass within a hundred miles of the border, so that Russia knows the minute their army crosses the border, we’ll demolish every single one of them.
Just so you know, the country’s name is Belarus.
How quickly can the governments of the three countries mobilise the destruction forces? If Russian tanks are rolling down the roads, with some air support?
Have explosives rigged ahead of time. If the Russians start to invade then push the button, there’s a big BOOM, and the land routes are cut.
The Baltic states are tiny and have long borders with Russia and long coasts to the Baltic sea. Russia is a major trading partner for all of them. Two capitals are on the Baltic sea, vulnerable to the Russian navy, the third is just around 20 miles from the Russian border and can be shelled from within Russia. The Russian exclave of Kaliningrad pressumably has a lot of traffic to and from Russia going through Lithuania, so even if demolishing all the roads wasn’t seen as a massive provocation for Russia, cutting land access to Kaliningrad surely would.
I don’t know what they’ve already done in this crisis, and I’m not a military strategist, but it doesn’t seem feasible to me except in the face of imminent invasion.
The Belarusians resistance pulled off shutting down rail, mostly by breaking smaller things, especially the electronic-based stuff. But that works primarily because it’s the easiest route into Ukraine. I don’t know if there’s enough to do that for all of them.
It also might not be necessary, given how much Russia’s army has stalled.
“within a hundred miles of the border”? That’s easily well over 50% of every bridge, tunnel and overpass in each of the three countries!
I treated Belarus as Russia in thinking of the borders here. Which it might as well be at this point, but was a glaring error nevertheless!
Well, it’s that or welcome our new insect overlords.
If Russia decides to invade the Baltics countries, I would think that their best strategy would be to welcome them with open arms, and then pray that NATO actually follows through with its commitments.
The OP is right to think a few steps ahead. Even so, I don’t think the roads and railways should be closed.
Russia won’t be able to build up its forces unnoticed on the borders of the Baltic states and then mount an invasion that takes everyone by surprise.
However, if a NATO-Russia war starts, I could imagine a surprise air attack on Baltic airfields and military bases.
Military grade explosives are military grade because of their stability not because they are more powerful. But even with the greater stability I would not want to expose them to the elements for a prolonged period of time even without initiators installed. For multiple reasons.
Plus, what about the citizens of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania who are crossing the bridge or using the road at the moment the button is pushed? Kill your own citizens
It seems like the border between the Baltics and Russia/Belarus is mostly sloping plains, light forests and a couple of fairly shallow rivers. I’m not sure that blowing up bridges would present that much of an impediment.