Trump is just utterly incapable of under playing his hand. He could have presented this as a hopeful first step on which to continue building a just peace, and he would have deserved some credit for that.
But no, he’s got to get up there and brag about solving “3000 years of violence”, and creating a peace that will last forever. I’d say that when it blows up on him, it would cost him, but we all know it won’t.
I have read that Netanyahu is expected to be back in court three days a week (to make up for lost time) as of November. So I’d expect the ceasefire to hold until about Oct 31st at the latest.
As far as I’m aware, this “deal” is not that dissimilar to what hamas had proposed to release the hostages quite some time ago but Israel would not agree to releasing the Palestinian prisoners. Trump has perhaps twisted arms enough (and Gaza is in ruins anyway) that it’s now more palatable.
I agree with the jist of your post, except for the part about Israel wiping out Hamas, which was Israel’s ostensible mission. They never did get around to that.
Hamas proposed amnesty in return for their committing to peaceful coexistence and decommissioning weapons (point 6)? When was that?
See:
A Coordinated Squeeze Play Forced Hamas to Accept a Deal It Didn’t Want
In five or ten years when memoirs and some of the early histories have been published, I predict we’ll find out that Trump was a noisey bystander while Hamas lost the war. Am I sure? No. I think there’s more to learn.
What proportion of Hamas prisoners in Israel were released? Did Hamas get the people it wanted most?
World leaders need to give Trump credit because he’s too dangerous a man to anger. But it is easy to overestimate the U.S. role here.
Fair enough, I apologize. I thought my comment was still relevant but I see now how I was mistaken. Thank you.
So…is there going to be a Palestinian diaspora where they’re all shipped to some 3rd party country? Wasn’t that the trump plan, to turn it into a resort? According to trump, afa Gaza is concerned, he doesn’t have to buy it, because there’s nothing there. Worthless land.
Mike Huckabee, US Ambassador to Israel and associate of an alarming number of pedophiles, is upset that anyone other than the Golden Calf he worships is getting credit for the Gaza ceasefire:
However, Steve Witkoff, the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, says otherwise:
Wasn’t that pretty much what they did with them way back when all this started? I seem to recall it didn’t work out so well.
No. That isn’t in any way part of this particular agreement.
Nope.
That was the Trump TikTok video; I don’t think there was ever any actual plan other than this one.
The purpose of putting out a video like that and sabre rattling about casinos was to threaten Hamas with something that would actually scare them. Did it work? I highly doubt it; I think the largest factor was the diplomatic work with Qatar. Trump gave Qatar a security guarantee; and of course he gave them access to that airbase for training. Those are the carrots. The stick, it sounds like, was a threat to pull US bases out of Qatar, which could potentially leave Qatar vulnerable to the Saudis or Emirates who have had their eyes on the tiny nation for decades.
I don’t think whether Hamas is on board or not matters much for these or any other negotiations. You need to convince the adults in the room - that being the Qataris in this case, though first you have to drive the other adults (Iran) out of the room.
From Trump? No; for Trump it’s always about him. It was about him trying to rationalize some way he could profit from the situation. He’s a malignant narcissist, everything he says and does is about him, and only him.
Nothing Trump does or says is going to be motivated by any concern for Israel or the Palestinians; they are not Trump, and therefore are only of worth insofar as they can be used to profit and glorify him. Assuming he’s on your side is a mistake, no matter what side that is; he’s only on his side.
You think the video came from Trump? You think he knows how to prompt AI, cut together separate videos that came from separate prompts, etc?
He has minions for that.
…anyone not named Donald John Trump Sr. 
Yes, exactly! Minions who know “Trump wants the credit that comes with a peace deal” and who, being smarter than Trump, can figure out how to get that.
No; minions who know Trump only cares about himself, and so will present any proposal in a way that looks like it will profit him. So, casinos.
Do you think he actually cares about peace? Of course not. If he could make some money from it or a Noble Peace Prize, he’d happily see the entire region reduced to a heap of ash. No one there is Trump, so they are of no value.
It has been suggested that the current ceasefire is basically the same one previously negotiated by Biden and Blinken:
That would make sense if, for example, Trump was currently pursuing the Casino plan.
I think he cares about giving himself credit for peace.
Did the prior plan include the disarmanent of Hamas? If not, it’s really not the same plan at all, is it?