What percentage of the cost of an EV is a 300 mile battery versus a 100 mile battery? In other words, how would a reduced battery affect the price?
In theory the coal plant might be more efficient and coal plant’s emissions could be better captured/scrubbed than the emissions of all the cars it’s powering… in theory. I suspect in practice this does not happen.
^ This. Between the issues with quality control/safety and the potential for backdoor mischief installed at the factory I am very uneasy at the prospect of Chinese EV’s making market penetration in the US. China is not our friend even if they are a trading partner. China would love to have us completely dependent on them for manufacturing because then they would have us by the short n’ curlies.
Heck, just better insulation will improve the situation regarding residential - I would love it if the owner of the building I live in could retrofit some insulation into the walls and ceiling. Which highlights a problem with our current incentives - they are mostly directed at private home-owners, we could use a stick-and-carrot for landlords, especially in the lower socio-economic sectors (which might require more carrot since money is always a factor).
One problem is that they want both: rock bottom prices and high-paying middle class jobs. Unfortunately, there’s a basic conflict there in that if you keep wages up prices can only go so low before businesses are out of business. Too many people do not see a connection there, or they don’t care if there’s a massive underclass (heck, some of them desire a massive underclass to oppress and torment).
China wants control. If they can get that without war, sure, why not? But I don’t doubt that if they decide fighting is in their best interests they would do that.
Efficiently producing shitty vehicles really isn’t a “solution”. Also, we still haven’t solved the issue of people who live in rental housing (about 100 million according to a quick Google) who can’t, at present, set up a home charger. Even if you just outright gave me an EV I’d have to get rid of it because I have no means to reliably charge it. Until that problem is solved I’m locked into ICE’s.
Does that take into account the diminished range in cold weather? I need a vehicle that will start and function down to -20 or -25 F. According to my EV owning sister in Buffalo, NY who has owned a hybrid for over a decade typical winter cold of even 0-20 F greatly diminishes the range.
I think the thing is that only 5.8% of that overall total is passenger cars; putting that much effort into them is probably not cost effective versus maybe concentrating on industry or residential/commercial.
Heck, the amount of emissions by light duty trucks is almost twice that of passenger cars (37% of the transportation total, 10.73% overall) - that’s another obvious (and ripe) place to drop the Federal hammer IMO.
I agree, but I also think it’s worth figuring out where the lowest hanging fruit is, and concentrating on that first. Passenger cars are NOT low hanging fruit at this point. Neither are aviation, ships, or rail, which combine for 14% total of the transportation sector, which is 4% overall.
“Should EVs be more common” and “should China be the source” are two different questions. We could make them ourselves, get them from other nations, or get them from multiple sources including but not exclusive to China.
That’s never stopped warmongers. And China isn’t the only factor, the West seems pretty eager to pick a fight with China, too.
The beauty of a PHEV like a RAV4 Prime is that there’s still an internal combustion engine, capable of much more distance so even if the cold diminishes the EV-only range, you’re not stuck.
Yes, my sister has such a hybrid which enabled her to actually use her EV all year round, even in winter, but without that option there would have been times she was stranded. Granted, she had a relatively early, low-range EV but then we’re talking about low-range EV’s.
Keep in mind that for much (most?) of America, “light duty truck” is equivalent to “the family car”, thanks to the rise of the pickup and SUV in American car-buying tastes (and various incentives to keep US-based car production focused on what can be categorized as a “light duty truck.”)
I’m well aware. That’s kind of my point- most of the little Chinese EVs would be competing in the passenger car space, and I doubt they’d have much impact overall.
We’d get a lot more legislative bang for the buck if we could just reduce light truck emissions some (or any number of other emissions reduction measures), rather than have to get into the whole minefield of letting Chinese cars into the country.
I think the relevant measure is NOT the average driving distance.
For my own use I’d want a car that has range equal to WAG two standard deviations of my personal driving habits. IOW 95% of my driving days. Which for me here in warm FL is probably 150 miles range with air conditioner running and most miles covered at high speed.
For a societal-level adoption we need this range to be adequate for ~1 standard deviation of the populace’s driving habits. So about 2/3rds of the populace.
Putting that together, a vehicle that can cover 95% of the driving days of 2/3rds of the populace is the minimum buy-in for nationwide mass market adoption. Assuming we get price and infrastructure solved along the way.
Contrafactually … if I could recharge a nearly drained battery in 5-10 minutes, like I can refill a gas tank, then I think we could cut back to range equal to 1 standard deviation of my driving days, so ~2/3rds. Just like an ICE.
There are two-car households that can get by with one long-range car and one short-range car. Regardless of the tech details involved. But for far more households, they only have one vehicle, or they need two long-range vehicles. In either case it needs to meet their 95% daily use case, not their 50% daily use case.
Whatever else we say about EVs, and I’m a fan in general, solving the cost problem by leaving the car crippled for range is IMO a dead-end non-solution.
Maybe Americans could buy fewer large SUVs or pickup trucks? Certainly some need a large vehicle but a huge number of Americans are driving a ridiculously large vehicle.
Thanks for all the replies so far. A lot of good info and thought-provoking discussion. I see how EVs are not going to be a panacea for climate change by themselves, but they could end up being a foothold for more impactful changes that lie ahead. Also, I appreciate the comments around Chinese manufacturer skullduggery and our current relationship with their government.
What if some other, currently trusted manufacturer, based in a country on friendly relations with the USA, were to develop an inexpensive EV for import to our streets (e.g. Volkswagon making a car like that in Mexico)? It may still pose a problem for American industry, altho as pointed out, the US car makers have abandoned the small car market, but that may be an opportunity as well for someone. It seems like a lot of consumers are ready for personal EV transportation, but the main barrier to entry is the upfront cost of owning an EV.
Haven’t you also noticed that a number of Americans are huge and ridiculously large as well? Its like asking an XXL person to fit into a X size tee shirt, not a pretty site.
The other problem is that “Second Cars in the Family” often don’t get bought with the intent of being second cars. If you buy a brand new car, you’re going to want it to have 200-300 mile range for road trips from Minneapolis to Chicago. Then it ages and gets downgraded to the 2nd car when you buy a new, more reliable primary car with 300 miles of range for road trips to Chicago. Your 2nd car still has that range even though you only drive it 10 miles to the station.
I mostly disagree.
The show-stopping problem is that people of limited means overwhelming live in rented accommodation. An pure EV only makes sense when you can plug it in at night at home. Anyone who already owns a detached single-family house has passed the threshold test of being able to afford a used modern tech (not beta tech) EV.
There are apartments (and condos) with charging facilities. I live in one. But the charging infrastructure is sufficient for the EV fleet to total maybe 5% of the total residents’ fleet. Could it be expanded? Probably, at least in a fairly new facility like mine. Will it be expanded as the EV fleet grows? Who’s to say?
It strikes me that a couple of EV charging spots is one of those square-filler amenities like a pool or a gym. Yes we have one, but there’s no assurance it’s well-maintained or adequate to the total demand for its services.
The second half of the ownership equation is that lots of Americans buy used cars, not new cars. Especially at the lower end. The problem is that (Tesla excepted), mainstream EVs are only a couple years old now. Even the mainstream Teslas (Models 3 & Y) are only at most ~8 years old now.
So the EV fleet is still aging into being prime used car buying age. And the number of e.g. 8yo EVs for sale today is limited to however many were sold new 8 years ago in 2016. In a market that’s experiencing significant year-on-year growth, which EVs have done, the graph of fleet size by year of age is a very lopsided curve.
There is no value in trying to price a new EV at the price point where new ICE’s don’t exist. Mass adoption of any car model depends on mass presence of that car model among the used cars for sale.
I think you’re ignoring the bit that for people who live in apartments an even more significant barrier is the complete lack of a place to recharge them at home and no legal means to install one for the tenant. (The landlord could do that, but I don’t see any incentive for them to do that. Locations that have such chargers for residents are NOT for the “lower middle class”, they’re high end, expensive, “luxury” rentals.)
Again - even if you GAVE me an EV it would be completely useless to me due to a lack of anywhere to charge it where I live. The nearest charging publicly accessible station is about 10 miles away (yes, I did research that) which means I would have to take time out of my day, every day or every other day, to drive there and sit and wait while it recharged. How many hours of my day would that be?
A not insignificant portion of that “lower middle class” demographic you’re aiming at is in my position.
I said “a lot” of consumers, not “all consumers”. Basically, most people living in a single-family home in a suburban neighborhood, of which there are a lot, may be able to afford and justify an around-town grocery-getter EV, if it were priced low enough (of which most EVs today are not). Of course there are going to be exceptions and yes, there is not a universal answer yet for those living in apartment buildings and condos - that market is not ripe yet. And not everyone in a suburban single-family home neighborhood is going to want an EV, either. All I am suggesting is there is likely a market for a cheap EV in the US.
But there are lots of 2-4 year old EVs for sale out there. Granted, not as many as ICE vehicles, but we had little problem finding them when were looking for used. We’ve since switched to looking for a new EV. But it’s not hard to find a 2 year old used Chevy Bolt for roughly $20K.
Seems like the perfect place for government intervention. Stuff like tax breaks for landlords who install electric car chargers for their tenants, for example, or like California’s Right to Charge law which says that if a tenant offers to pay the cost of installing an EV charger the landlord cannot refuse.
(Varies by state, as noted)
What does the service look like on these Seagull cars?
Is service for any EV car much different than ICE cars?
Will Chinese cars be produced using parts familiar to the US service market? (I know cars is cars but still you have to take your Saab to a special garage)
OK, I get you. I just didn’t derive that from what you had written.
There are times I wonder if it might help to force all hybrids to be PHEV. The Toyota Sienna, for instance, is now only available with a hybrid drivetrain, but it can’t be charged via a station or outlet. Seems a shame to not allow charging and running in full-electric mode - a 40-50 mile battery would allow a lot of drivers to avoid gas for the bulk of their use.