So, it’s 2011, and I got a silver quarter in change at the local 7-11. Is there a way, even a rough one, to calculate the probability of finding a circulating silver coin?
There are a finite number of silver quarters, in theory slowly decreasing through loss and destruction, and a finite but increasing number of regular quarters. Most of the silver coins are now non-circulating, and have been so since mid-1968 [this is in Canada but I assume the answer for the US would be similar]. To be a silver coin in circulation today it has to be one of the small number that have remained in circulation for 42+ years, or else re-introduced from someone’s coin collection, and I would think the clerk, at least, would notice. Additionally, the US mint says “the approximate lifespan of a coin is 25 years,” whatever that means. Any thoughts?
Following Gresham’s law, silver quarters have been taken out of circulation, either for bullion or for coin collections, since they stopped being minted. So any silver quarters currently in circulation will be from coin collections, introduced by people who didn’t know their real value (or who were really desperate and couldn’t get to a coin dealer). That means it’s pretty hard to know what the numbers are.
No idea the odds, but I got an actual silver dime in my change about 6 months ago. I thought it was fake because the sheen was different than the other coins and it was noticeably lighter in weight. I looked at the reeding on the side, and saw there wasn’t a copper core on the inside. The minted date says 1964.
I didn’t know the name of this law, but I guess that’s what I’m asking about. Gresham’s law isn’t instantaneous or even mechanized, so I don’t think it’s true that “any silver quarters currently in circulation will be from coin collections.” That certainly wasn’t true in 1975, though I suppose it could be by now. Is there any way to know? Have there been studies on how fast Gresham’s law takes out the “good” money?
What they mean by “lifespan” of a coin is how long it typically lasts in circulation without becoming so worn you almost can’t identify it. Worn out coins get removed from circulation the same way ratty paper money is, except it takes a lot longer.
I don’t think the ones floating around now are necessarily from collections (some, but not necessarily all) . The mintage of these coins was high enough that the premium over face value is pretty low unless they are proofs or uncirculated coins in really great shape (and even then they’re not super-valuable), circulated coins are more likely to have sat around in someone’s change jar until someone wrapped the coins to exchange for paper money.
A lot of people I’ve met don’t know the difference ( or even think the silver ones are fakes!) so chances are the silver coins out there will be floating around for a while yet.
I’ve noticed an uptick in old coin appearances around two holidays, New Years and 4th of July. My hypothesis is that kids raid coin collections to buy what’s even more desirable to them, fireworks.
but to put that in perspective that site lists the melt price of dimes at around $2 and quarters for around $5. I haven’t used any of those precious metal buying places myself but I’d be surprised if they give you the full melt price of the coins. Granted that’s more than the numismatic value but it seems to me it would be more of a PITA than it’s worth unless you had a lot of them.
That’s how I notice silver quarters, as well. I’m so conditioned to what a modern, clad quarter feels and sounds like, that a silver quarter feels “off”, almost phony.
I’d estimate that I get one or two silver quarters a year, simply through getting change.
At work, I remove the silver coins as I get them (usually as change from vending machines) and keep them in a separate container, more just a curiosity than a collection. I counted them up and I had gathered 17 since January 2010. (I took home the ones I had gotten by then.) They are rare, but definitely out there. Also, a quick look at them makes them seem as if they had been circulating for most of the last 45+ years, as they were more worn than most of the other quarters. I just say that to counter the “recently re-introduced into the monetary stream from a collection” theory.
I did not keep track of the number of quarters I received in 2010, so I cannot answer the OP’s question directly.
Wow, you folks are all luckier than me or you get more quarters in change than I do. I acquired a habit of hoarding quarters when I lived in an apartment complex with quarter-fed laundry equipment (there was no change machine, and I never got a roll of quarters from a bank, this was all acquired via change when purchasing stuff). I set aside bicentennials (just for kicks) and silvers and used the rest in the machines. I probably found about 5 silvers in the whole ten years or so I was renting and tracking quarters closely. After a few years my hoard outgrew my routine laundry needs, but I kept hoarding them.
It’s been three years since I’ve been out of apartment living and I’m slowing drawing down my quarter hoard…but I’m willing to guess I’ve still got at least $300 of quarters in it.
I’m a coin collector and a cashier, so I am hyper-aware of silver in circulation. It is very rare. I open at least one roll of dimes and one roll of quarters per day, as well as receiving change from customers. In the last five years, I’ve found maybe two bucks face value of silver. I find way more wheat cents and pre-1964 nickels.
Here’s my go at providing a rough approximation. If the number of coins still in circulation from a given year decreases exponentially with time, and “average lifetime” of a coin is N[sub]life[/sub] years, then the fraction of the coins in circulation that are older than N years is e[sup]-N/N[sub]life[/sub][/sup]. If N[sub]life[/sub] is 25 years, as implied above, this implies that about 19% of the coins in circulation today should be from before 1968. Obviously this is not the case for silver coins due to the external pressures mentioned above. However, it also seems a little high for non-precious coinage such as pennies or nickels; my guess is that the “exponential decrease” assumption I made above isn’t a good one, and also that the figure of 25 years provided above might not actually be an average in the sense I’m assuming.
Having worked at a convenience store (many, many years ago), your odds of getting silver in your change, compared to general circulation, are pretty good, especially if you have an unobservant cashier. As others have noted, it’s pretty common for kids to bring in the contents of coin collections (either their parent’s, or obtained in even more nefarious ways). Probably happened a half dozen times over the 2 years I was clerking.
Which means that even at the 7-11, your odds are extremely low. Assuming that silver ends up in the till maybe once a month and the clerk probably snags it 50% of the time, I figure your odds of getting silver in your change are roughly like 1/15,000 at best.
I acquired a habit of hoarding quarters when I lived in an apartment complex with quarter-fed laundry equipment (there was no change machine, and I never got a roll of quarters from a bank, this was all acquired via change when purchasing stuff). I set aside bicentennials (just for kicks) and silvers and used the rest in the machines. I probably found about 5 silvers in the whole ten years or so I was renting and tracking quarters closely. After a few years my hoard outgrew my routine laundry needs, but I kept hoarding them.