Arizona is R+2. West Virginia is R+22. Cite. I’ll carry water for Manchin. I won’t for Sinema because a) AZ is a swing state, not a red state and b) her strategy didn’t work and was never going to work. It was poorly thought out: it was Green Party level dumb.
Sinema wanted to be the next McCain, when being a bland Dem would have improved her electoral chances. Because unlike McCain, Sinema had terrible political instincts. McCain voted mostly Republican, but broke with them over campaign finance reform and branded himself as a Maverick. Campaign finance reform is popular. Defending the filibuster and the carried interest loophole is not and furthermore attracts nobody to your side, other than funders. Who can’t help you if half the state actively dislikes you.
High profile pandering on immigration could have been politically viable for Sinema. Or she could have sided closely with an AZ defense contractor. Or she could have pushed for… campaign finance reform while attacking unions and teachers. I wouldn’t favor any of these things policy-wise, but they could have made sense for keeping a Dem in AZ. As it is, Sinema was a doorknob who thought she was Machiavelli.
Democratic incumbents tend to do well in the primaries. Sinema had 20% support going into November. What a waste of space.
There was never any logic to her face-heel turn. It was pure ego and nothing else. For some reason she thought she could be the next McCain, but she had no rational basis for this belief. You’re right about Manchin, but good riddance to her.
-peers through the cycles of time, dimly mind you-
My very much IMHO read on Sinema, was that she figured that post-Trump, the Republicans would return to their traditional values and abandon Trump. In hindsight, yeah, laughable, but not absolutely so at the time she made her choices. If that had been the case (see her inability to read the room politically speaking) she might have thought that her actions would indeed let her be a bridge between neo-neo-conservatives and “moderate” Democrats. But she -got- to that point by burning most of her ships behind her to the waterline, without accurately reading the intents and will of the people she thought would embrace her.
So yeah, failed. In a different universe branch, maybe she would have made the crossover, as multiple democrats on the state level have (a pox on them btw) - but in an increasingly polarized political climate it was almost certainly a bad call from day one. Especially when the MAGA majority blows up any true efforts at good government out of spite.
Sinema was really trying to inhabit the “Mavericky Maverick” lane that John McCain had occupied for three decades in Arizona politics. She figured in a purplish state, she had to put together a coalition from both right and left to keep her seat for a while.
Problem is she’s not a tenth the retail politician that McCain was, and running without that (R) next to her name made the donor class inherently suspicious of her. McCain could get away with his heresies on campaign finance reform because the donors knew the rest of the party would keep him under control, and on most other issues he was a rock-ribbed Republican vote. Sinema ended up sucking up to donors and ignoring her grassroots support - I don’t think she did a single general constituent availability event in her five-plus years as senator.
This gave her a steadily decreasing base to draw upon, even as her fundraising was solid. Ultimately her last, best play was as a dealmaker who could get things done for the state by talking to both right and left - hence her move to Independent. Since Arizona has no runoffs, and a Republican party taken over by loony MAGAheads, she might have had a shot at putting together a coalition of nonattentive Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans for 35-40% of the vote to earn another term.
But Donald Trump’s scuttling of the border funding deal left her with nothing to run on. She may have thought, at some point, that her relationships with her Republican colleagues, and the prospect of Ruben Gallego taking her seat, might have given her some dealmaking power, but if so, she was surely fooling herself.
According to your link, Maine is light blue, while Arizona is light red. So by the logic where one condemns politicians for being Republican if their state leans Democratic, Susan Collins is a worse human being than Sinema.
I reject loyalty tests. I would rather every Senator vote and identify center left, but no one has a responsibility to maintain party loyalty.
I appreciate the opportunity to clarify my views. I don’t expect Sinema to be AOC. But if she’s going to tack to center, she should do so in a way that – wait for it – increases her support rather than decreases it. I’m no fan of Susan Collins. But her strategy has worked in the past. Sinema showed her independent streak by breaking with Washington tradition and… not giving Senate hallway interviews, not having constituent meetings in her state, and dressing like a Christmas tree decorated by a five year old. Out of the box? Sure. Effective? No. Very much unlike Susan Collins.
You could argue that Manchin had to oppose the filibuster because he was in an electorally precarious position. There’s no such argument for Sinema. Nor was there a compelling policy reason for it. Sinema was playing for optics, which is all fine and well but you need a certain minimum level of political competence which she lacked.
Contrast with Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ). He makes moderate bipartisan noises -and takes a few positions that are to the right of mine- but without a lot of attention seeking drama. That’s how it’s done.
ETA:
I would argue that every party member has a responsibility to vote on certain procedural issues with their party. But Sinema did that. Gaetz et al in the House did not.
I could see Manchin as a lobbyist, or even just relaxing in retirement.
Sinema is 100% going to be a pundit somewhere, her ego and desire for attention makes that the only possible destination. The only question is Fox or MSNBC.
After the House did its volte face on the border issue/Ukraine spending bill I wrote her office asking how she felt about reaching across the aisle now. Never got a reply.