Not much is getting past in the next couple years anyway. The House will do nothing but investigate Hunter Biden, probably impeach Joe. The Senate will be good for nothing but confirming judges, for which Sinema’s vote is no longer needed. My advice to her would be don’t let the door hit you in the butt on the way out.
I suspect she thinks by running as an independent the Democrats will decide to not run anyone against her, just like they do with Angus King and Bernie. While that is a possibility if they feel it could cost them the seat I actually expect they will find the strongest possible candidate they can to run and hopefully win.
I also feel losing the seat for one term could be worth it just to get rid of her troublesome ass altogether. But that’s more of an emotional response than a rational one.
ETA @JohnT - But her vote is needed, at least for Senate leadership. If the Ds don’t have a majority they will have to arrange another power-sharing agreement with McConnell. That would stall any approval of judicial appointments.
So textbook Sinema.
Which Cabinet post should Biden offer her? Seems like a win-win-win.
That . . . is a very intriguing possibility.
It’s not a cabinet post, but how about appointing her as ICE Director? Right now, Tae Johnson is the Acting Director, so the position is open.
Intriguing but unlikely to take it.
Her entire schtick has been to keep as much attention focused on her as possible. Last Congress that was easy because of the 50-50 split. Since Warnock won she was at risk of being irrelevant so she pulls this stunt. I doubt she would have done this if Walker had won and the split remained.
This is all about Me Me Me! Not clear what post she could be offered that would feed her need to be the center of attention.
I won’t pretend to understand her motivations, but a Cabinet position or high-profile ambassadorship would certainly get her attention— though maybe not the kind she wants. It’s worth a shot now that AZ has a Democratic governor. Maybe wait until it’s clearer that she’s doomed in a three-way race.
She gets her face in the paper and on the news by trolling the Democrats while being a Senator. Playing up the “I’m just trying to be bipartisan” is a big part of her game.
There is no Cabinet position she is likely to get that would scratch that itch. She also doesn’t want to toe any party line it appears. What Cabinet or other position do you imagine Biden would be willing to give her and just let her go rogue and ignore his policy positions the way she has done while in the Senate?
I agree, if she were a reasonable individual this could be a good solution. I don’t see any evidence to suggest she would go for it.
Does she take that 10% away from the Democrat?
Two factors to consider -
US Senators qualify for lifetime pension after serving two 6 year terms. So, there is motivation for her to run again (and win) in order to complete her pension vesting.
As a Democrat, she has a responsibility to devote time and effort to meeting fund raising goals for the party apparatus. It is likely that she sucks at that (too), and wants out of that game. So, Independent it is!
But ultimately, this is another case of an elected representative playing out their personal psycho-drama (ala Trump). She’s always marched to the beat of her own drum, and to a pathological level doesn’t want to join any club that would have her as a member.
Who knows. She is deeply unpopular with AZ Democrats because of her BS. Personally, I think with the right person to run on the D line in ‘24 the amount she actually hurts their chances can be minimized.
But, as I already mentioned, I suspect this is a ploy on her part to keep the Democrats from running someone against her out of fear of losing the seat to the GOP. We will know more as soon as Gallegos or someone else files for the primary. Her reaction to that could be to go full on GOP.
Ruben Gallegos has already declared he will run for her seat in 2024.
Exactly this. Everybody here saying this was a stupid or irrelevant move is completely wrong. The effect it will have on the next election cycle is not irrelevant and it wasn’t a nakedly stupid move. I mean it probably won’t work for her, but it was her best shot at clinging to power. She continues to caucus with Democrats or at the least does not caucus with the GOP and she keeps her committee seats. She is now immune to being primaried out. And she can threaten the Democrats with a Hobson’s choice - run a candidate to her left, split the vote and hand that seat to the GOP.
I believe you are completely wrong here. AZ is as close to being evenly split as a state can be and the GOP in AZ is more MAGA than not. Sinema’s favorables in polling is abysmal - mid to high-30’s in September, but they cracked 40 in one case - independents. The Republican vote will be more unified out of sheer tribalism if nothing else. If the Republicans run someone non-insane (a high bar to hit for the modern AZ GOP, granted) and Sinema peels off even a few points worth of AZ’s dwindling centrists it will absolutely hand the seat to the GOP.
Now if the Democrat’s don’t run and throw their support behind her, I think she loses regardless. As noted most people think that she sucks, if for different reasons. But she has seriously fucked the Democrats in the next election cycle, because she almost certainly would have been primaried out by a more viable candidate. Well, unless she doesn’t run which seems rather unlikely.
I think it is telling she waited until after Warnock won, as I suspect that might have affected her choice of strategy. She has more leverage vis-a-vis committee seats et al if the Democrats hold the keys. Withdrawing from the party if he had lost would have burned bridges that she is precariously still propping up with Schumer et al.
Just have to point out that one way Sinema differs from Sanders and King is that they were honest with their voters about their independent status and didn’t pull a bait-and-switch after the election.
Also, fuck her.
She has no chance of winning a Republican primary.
It’s a guess at this point anyway. But I’ve seen polls with her favorability higher with Republicans than independents, and polls with nothing higher than the 20s for her favorability. I don’t think there’s any way she can win. We’ll see what happens, but I think this is desperation from a shitty (as in foolish) politician.
Expanding on the above, I don’t know about King, but the Democrats didn’t give up running candidates against Bernie until he’d proved multiple times that he could win a three-way race. I would support the same standard being applied to Sinema.
Did anyone else know she is the first openly bisexual Senator? I somehow missed that until I read the stories about her switch today. Yay, glass ceiling shattered, now go away. (Also, see flurb two posts up).
I assume both sexes can’t stand her?
He’s mainly conservative when legislation might affect his coal empire. Greed is the motivation, despite his handwringing about the poor mine workers in WVA.