Yes. The lack of (publically available) confirmation that the Russians did it isn’t the reason for us not wanting to confront Russia; rather, the West’s lack of willingness to confront Russia over this is the reason why no information on the perpetrators has been publically released.
If we sank the Yantar, Putin would be in exactly the same boat. He’d know that it’s us, of course; but he wouldn’t be able to reveal that publically without forcing himself into a confrontation that he simply isn’t prepared for.
Right. That’s the problem. Putin knows that even though the West is far more capable at shooting wars than Russia is, we are so terrified of our own shadow that we will never confront him as he, inch by inch and provocation by ignored provocation, destroys the post-Cpld War global order.
Maybe the UK (and the US and Germany and France and…) SHOULD be in a shooting war with Russia, and should have been in one since 2014, or even 2008. But better late than never.
The Russians want to be able to turn off internet communication at will. Not just between European countries, but the USA (and Canada too). Going that far won’t be the first thing he does, yet it will be in the first reel of the film.
I’m sure the various militataries have secret backups - and if you know of any Putin would like to add them to his maps. The Internet started as the Arpanet and we’ve likely replaced every cable and router from the 80’s, and now we have satellites (and killer-satellites) yet I’m sure even Sun Tsu would tell you cutting off communication amongst your enemies is crucial.
I agree three are very good reasons why the US shouldn’t leave the rest of NATO to fend for themselves, in this matter or any other.
But in terms of choosing a battle, it really doesn’t seem like a good one. I don’t think Trump is going to fulfill his obligations for joint defense under NATO whatever. But to deliberately escalate things and force his hand, in a situation where he can point to the UK and say “look they are just escalating things to protect their own selfish economic interests!”
Once that line has been crossed, and the US has abandoned the rest of NATO in the face of Russia, the whole of Europe will be less secure. The possiblity that Trump might actually decide to grow a spine and support US allies matters a lot, and would be the difference between Russia being favourites to win a military confrontation and a pile of smoldering scrap metal by the end of the first day.
To be clear, I do agree with you on the practicalities. The UK is in no position to call Russia’s bluff, and while the US can and should do it, we are being led by a buffoon who is either compromised by Russia or aligned with them.
I was opining on what should be happening if the US had proper leadership, not on what is realistic for the UK to do. I could have definitely been clearer on that, but this being the pit, I was mostly just venting.
If that was the case we wouldn’t be in this situation. If there were USAF planes with the RAF ones tracking this ship they would not be shining lasers at them.
All this behavior by Russia is predicated on the fact that they have the POTUS in their pocket and he’s not coming to the aid of US allies.
It wouldn’t take anything being blown up to stop it, just a performative demonstration that the US intends to the stand by the UK.
There are E-2 Hawkeyes - the one with the dish on top (the closest use-plane I could come up with similar features of the P-8 - though rather older) exist, yet not in Europe.
Wiki says they’re stationed in VA, CA, and Japan, so Uber-Commander-of-Warfare Hegseth would be the first to call up, and I reckon the deal-killer is “We are using these as bait for a harmless fishing vessel?” and that won’t get past the Oval or Trump’s red phone to the Kremlin.
And the thing is, you’re right, they wouldn’t laser paint the cockpit of an obvious propeller plane that they knew was coming. Just checking out the fish. Proof!
A Russian research ship recently pointed lasers at Royal Air Force patrol aircraft and is believed to have attempted to jam GPS signals while operating in the vicinity of the U.K.’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Russian research ship Yantar conducted unprofessional and nuisance behavior in North Sea waters near the U.K., the Royal Navy and Ministry of Defense said Monday. From Nov. 5-11, frigate HMS Somerset (F82) shadowed Russian research ship Yantar as the research ship sailed northwards towards the Faroe Islands. The RN frigate worked with NATO allies to conduct surveillance on the Russian ship, according to Royal Navy and Ministry of Defense news releases issued Monday.
Northwards towards the Faroe Islands? They are high-tailing it out of the area, back to Kaliningrad or Kronstadt. They’ve got undersea maps and some info gleaned from Popular Mechanics on “GPS jamming.”
There are maps of the undersea cables, yet they look like the NYC subway map - some trains/cables are close/parallel/same tracks, and this is not to be taken as accurate GPS maps. And anywhere you might scamper by near the waters - they’re already buried and eventually fall to the ocean/sea floor. Just where is the best place to plant a radio-signallable cable-grenade, is the info you want to know.
So, a million rubles (not much), the Captain can distribute to the crew and and an “I fucked with the British and I won” medal from Putin.
Yup though that’s also a sign of their weakness to a degree. Russian covert activities have been wayyy more successful than their overt military activities (not that that is hard)
Has anyone seen season 2 of The Diplomat? “The quickest way for Russia to penetrate our naval defenses is steaming from the Arctic to the North Atlantic…”
Hadn’t heard of it. Who is Alison Janney playing, Sec Def?
I’d prefer they had a globe to show the great circles and make sub-continents like Greenland look smaller. Unfortunately, buying into her character having any voice in a contemporary White House which will - fuck the Nuclear Card - take on Russia.
Also surprised Trump hasn’t given her a nickname yet.
No idea if all that stuff about Nuclear Arsenals in Scotland is true. yet that is where the P-8’s based in Lossiemouth came from to test out Putin’s pen-laser capabilities, is true, along with what she said about Iceland:
There’s no diplomacy with Russia, the USA, and Ukraine if you cannot have a three-party (or tripartite) diplomacy to accomplish whatever “shuttle diplomacy” was - wherever that term comes from. And the EU has said they do not approve of the 28 Putin Points. Who asked their opinion?
I asked my Russian wife the same question about tripartite negotiations, even if only two sides could speak Russian, and she (I think) jokingly replied that there would be too much cursing. I replied (paraphrasing Tom Hanks), “There’s no cursing in Russian!”
Vice president in this episode, lecturing the US ambassador to the UK.
I looked it up. The nuclear sub base is next to the Firth of Clyde at Faslane. It isn’t named “Creegan.” I guess they made up that name for the show, but it’s obviously Faslane.
Who was played by Keri Russell? Who will return to Number 10 and tell whomever is PM that “Russia is still evil, even if not an empire” and (hey if I’m writing this season) is attacked by (Eastern) NATO and broken up and Putin visits the Hague.
The “great circle” map from Scotland to, oh let’s say Moscow, will fly over Norway, Sweden, maybe a bit of Finland and soar just south of Estonia and Saint Petersburg. That is the most efficient route to fly there.
The USA basically just shoots, I mean flies, almost directly over the North Pole (true for Moscow to Alaska, so adjust as appropriate. It was notable to me that Putin basically flew an inefficient train route along the north of Russia till he absolutely had to leave it’s confines to fly into Alaska)
When I’ve flown from JFK to Helsinki (HEL), it’s rather remarkable how much of barren North Canada and Greenland you can see.
