Finnish police last month seized a tanker carrying Russian oil and said they suspected the vessel had damaged the Finnish-Estonian Estlink 2 power line and four telecoms cables by dragging its anchor across the seabed.
This tanker captain clearly either had to be completely shitfaced drunk to be dragging anchor in the Baltic or was on a mission. My suspicion at the time - being more of a network guy than a drunken sailor - was Russia was perhaps monitoring how redundancy kicks in.
Assuming it’s not just vandalism for its own sake, it could also be a test of what NATO is willing to do in this area which would include international water.
Then today in the BBC:
It’s not even plausibly anything but an oceanographic spy vessel (Yantar means “Amber” in Russian) - it can even launch robotic and manned submersibles.
So Russia has the capability to cut the cables - and if you cut enough there won’t be any redundancy. They also have tech that can tap into the signals though I’m not sure if they can decode them.
No matter what they’re currently up to - I reckon it’s a Scientia potentia est - knowledge is power - thing.
Can anything be done rather than tell Putin to “Quit it!” ?
My first instinct is to say “cut a Russian cable or two, give an insincere ‘oops.’” But a little googling shows the Russians don’t really have any undersea cables. I guess that’s a function of their size and location. Maybe drop a sack of flour or two from a Western-nation military plane onto Yantar to say “We know where you are, we know what you’re doing, and it may well not be flour next time.”
Part of the problem is that the ships doing the damage seem to be independent and just carrying Russian oil or goods. Putin can just shrug. The Yantar is a different issue and should perhaps be searched? But I suppose it’s hard to come up with a workable solution.
You’re dealing with a lawless bully. Sound familiar?
They’re difficult to deter; you have to punish, either directly or indirectly. But make sure they understand the linkage between their tit and your tat. And that means you will spend your entire life in continuous low level combat meting out that punishment in hopes of steering their behavior to be a little less beastly.
Said another way, they’ll be pooping in your pool all day every day while you’re just trying to have a nice afternoon in the sun.
There’s nothing wrong with countries surveilling from international waters. That is a normal part of how countries maintain awareness. But damaging other countries’ property is an act of war.
I expect Russia is clever enough to not use a surveillance vessel for attacks.
Not being noticed is probably rule #1 in any criminal conspiracy. The Russian poison assassins dispatched to Salisbury UK were at first a couple tourists there to see the “world famous 123 meter cathedral.” Yet they never quite got there, spending some time in the neighbourhood of their victims before they simply had to get back to Russia.
So plausible deniability would of course be rule #2. That Russian (but not flagged Russian) tanker had just come through the Gulf of Finland after traversing the Neva past St. Petersburg. Someone forgot to raise the anchor (oops!) and some cables were torn up. The closest land equivalent I can think is driving my car 10 miles before realising I have not disengaged the parking brake.
And these suspicious vessels likely have enough rods and reels to plausibly say they were just out fishing and had no idea they were right above fiber cables. I reckon boarding the Yantar Spy Vessel might be a bit of an incident, yet would they expect to find anything besides oceanographic exploration equipment? Supposedly the Royal Navy is going to surface a sub really, really close to the Yantar.
If Russia is attaching devices that can tap into signals or perhaps just be remotely activated to shut down the cables, the Royal Navy better get some proof. And once again, “Quit it!” rather than declaring it an Act of War is much more likely.
The concept of having data being dependent on cables far underwater that could be affected by myriad different factors always seemed rather unsustainable.
Mapping the cables is harmless and can even be the responsible thing to do (a responsible nation would want to know where they are to ensure that they don’t accidentally break them, like calling 211 before digging in your yard).
Not that I have any illusions that that’s why Russia is actually doing it.
I assume that whomever lays and owns the fiber and other cables would have the capability to control whether they are active. If every three-letter-org in every superpower is mapping cables and possibly mucking around with them, then there must (or should) be counter-measures. Same thing in space - there are satellites and there are satellite killers. Yes, pretty much Reagan’s “Star Wars” which was ridiculed; yet in any war, if you can intercept the enemies messaging or block it, you are off to a good start.
Sabotage is an act of war. Get caught doing it or try the “drunken captain dragging anchor” thing again you might just get a couple torpedoes and a chance for a real close look at the sea floor. That of course goes for the “everybody” who is doing it.