One often reads that a smoker is much more likely to get lung (or other) cancer than is the non-smoker. No doubt this is correct.
But I’ve never seen an estimate of how likely it is that a smoker will get cancer. My suspicion is that (I’m making up the numbers to make the point) smokers are, say, four times as likely to get cancer, but that “only” one in six smokers will get cancer. I suspect that we don’t hear the figure for how likely smokers are to get cancer because the authorities figure (correctly) that smokers–who virtually expect to get cancer–are thrilled to hear that the odds are less than 50-50 or whatever. Odds that seem to a non-smoker to be a death warrant will be welcomed by the smoker as permission to smoke.
Obviously, the figures will be more complex, dependent on how much one smokes. but the point remains the same.
I’s be most grateful for any answer to be emailed to nighttrain@nyc.rr.com
Many thanks,
S.J. Estes