And yet how is this different from the “If only Hillary hadn’t called those people ‘deplorables’ they might have voted for her” argument?
The underlying problem isn’t what progressives are doing. The underlying problem is that, much like the Southern Strategy courted racists, the GOP is currently courting assholes and they are coming out in droves. And right now the Alpha Asshole holds the White House. The Democrats don’t have an effective counter for that, because neither calling those people out for their assholery nor pandering to them will woo them to the Democratic side of the fence.
Yes, the Democrats need to understand the reality of the situation but if you’ve got a solution to make people stop being selfish assholes, let’s hear it. Otherwise, stop trying to place the blame everywhere except where it belongs.
If that’s true then give some concrete examples, it should be simple to do if what you say is true.
And you got it backwards if you truly believe ‘snowflake’, and ‘war on xmas’, references are used as jibes against Fox news. THEY manufactured both and there is nothing trite about repeatedly pointing that out.
And unless you can produce some actual reference points this seems just like more manufactured nonsense for poor down trodden white men to get their victimhood on.
I don’t think this is representative of the real world as much as it represents the places where you tend to hang out. I don’t do “social media” – I wouldn’t touch Facebook with a twenty-foot barge pole and the only tweeting that goes on around here comes from the birds in the trees – and I have no such impression. What’s driving some young white men to the GOP is partly the ignorance that comes from getting too much fake news from social media and generally not giving a damn about politics except for uninformed knee-jerk reactions to emotionally charged issues like immigration.
But fortunately they’re in the minority and this isn’t a trend. As a Pew Research study showed in 2016, millennials are overwhelmingly Democratic and, if anything, became even more so between 2004 and 2016. Even Generation Xers have been pretty consistently Democratic, though with smaller margins.
And my “ignorance/fake-news” hypothesis is supported if one uses education level as a proxy for political awareness (and also anecdotally if you ask any of these doofuses to explain the facts behind their opinions: it tends to sound like one of Trump’s speeches). Even as Republicans gained more support from white men in general, support from college graduates and beyond dropped year by year from 49/45 for GOP/Dem in 1992 to 41/53 in 2016. For postgraduates, the Dems already had a 45/50 advantage in 1992 and this rose to a remarkable 36/59 by 2016.
Yes, this. Change “assholes” to “ignorant assholes” and it’s pretty much what I said.
Set aside for a moment your feelings about OP or his diagnosis of this shift in “millenial” sentiment. In the poll result he cites, white male registered voters between the ages of 18 and 34 were asked the question
“If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for U.S. Congress in your district where you live?”
In 2016 young white men answered this question Democrat over Republican by a whopping 48 to 36 margin.
In 2018 young white men answered this question by preferring Republican over Democrat by a 46 to 37 margin. Almost an exact reversal. :eek:
When I use bold-face or large fonts, Dopers ignore my message and just make sarcastic remarks about font size, so I ask Dopers to use the Zoom feature of their browser and reread that statistic enlarged. There was 21% shift in favor of the GOP.
In the other thread, a Doper seemed to think this statistical change was “noise.” I know noise; I dealt with noise during my signal processing career. Noise was a friend of mine. And this 21% shift is not noise.
And in 2016, voters were faced with the “normal” backlash against the perceived incumbent party. In 2018 we have the full incompetence of Trump and his party on display. Yet, young white males have lurched sharply toward the GOP.
And liberal Dopers’ solution? The problem isn’t that progressives are too eager to paint whites as racist or misogynist, but that they aren’t painted as racist or misogynist enough!
Do Democrats think elections are scored like golf? That success comes from inducing voters to vote against the D’s? I think I’ll start calling it the Masochistic Party.
If it’s not this kind of thing that has led young white men to shift from supporting Democrats only two years ago to now hitting a nearly double-digit lead for Republicans, what is your explanation or at least hypothesis? This is at the same time as young women and minorities are moving even further in the other direction.
Yes indeed.
A lot of people seem to believe that argument! But I’m with you. First of all, many people ignore that she had three buckets of Trump voters and that was only one of the three. But in any case, I am not really looking to convert deplorables or any Trump voters. I’m trying to get white guys on our side when they are young, just like advertisers do — before their preferences are hardened. And a pitch of “your kind of people suck, but if you grovel enough and mostly defer to us, we will tolerate you but still make fun of you” is not very enticing.
I am very familiar with their origins. But they are so ridiculous that among educated progressive people, riffing on them is a jibe against them, no further explanation necessary. It’s implicitly mocking the people who use these tropes, and rightly so in many cases.
But how does it make sense in response to a post like mine? It’s a lazy move to reach for a canned response that doesn’t remotely apply here. I may not agree with PC progressives’ identity politics, but I am an atheist and strong ACLU supporter who finds the notion of a war on Christmas absurd, and I am also someone who is married to a millennial and would cop to being a helicopter parent myself. So how does it make sense to throw those terms out there in this thread?
But you want examples. Fine. My email, unlike the “podcastosphere”, is searchable, and I dug up this example from last year, sent to the friend I mentioned upthread:
ETA: Wolfpup, please note that your numbers are from 2016, and then carefully consider the post below yours from septimus. And it’s not just one poll: Pew found a similar shift among young white men, masked by an opposite shift among young women. The millennial gender gap has suddenly become gigantic.
I’m not panicking over a single sub-demographic in a single poll (and an online poll, at that). If it turns out to be accurate, that’s concerning, but I don’t buy that it’s because of “sneering” or anti-white attitudes, which I’ve never actually encountered as a white man. And I hang around tons of lefties, including even the “fringe”, such as the Secular Social Justice conference… I’ve never felt marginalized, or unwelcome, or unwanted, etc., due to being a white man.
That’s only true if it’s happening on podcasts and video, but not in Twitter, blog comments, etc.
It would help make your case that this phenomenon you describe actually exists.
You know who I really have issues with? People who lazily throw around vague terms like ‘PC progressivism’ as if they were a magic debate-winning wand.
What elbows said.
Well, we still don’t know what you guys have gotten fed up with.
Rational people tend to avoid irrational thought. Details at Eleven. :smack:
Whenever I read an intelligent Doper discuss why he or one of his smart friends isn’t one of the stupid and gullible Trumpistas I think we’re having a failure to communicate. Getting enlightened people to vote Dem is NOT the problem. We need to enlighten the unenlightened.
I’m not sure how to do that. But whining “Don’t blame us; blame the nasty GOP liars” is NOT the answer. The D’s need to come up with a positive message that appeals to mainstream whites. Why is this so hard to accept?
Yeah, you weren’t asked to show that people ARE switching sides. You were asked what was said, that you believe so offended white males that they then switched sides.
But you don’t seem to be able to do so, not a single example, after being repeatedly asked.
And that broadcasts very loudly exactly how lacking this silly theory actually is.
My bad, the thing I was thinking about from Pew was just about gender, not race:
I do really think this is a related problem, though. There is a very vocal cadre of feminists online who make a lot of men feel targeted as the presumptive enemy. I am positive that if they were a little more chill, or just less visible, millennial men (which here includes all races) would be closer to their female peers in political outlook, just as men are closer to women in all other generations—cohorts that don’t see nearly as much of this online and college campus stuff.
SlackerInc, I have no doubt that some progressives sneer at white men. The reason I have no doubt is that I’ve seen the evidence – a handful of people who do the sneering, which is then screencapped, shared, and discussed ad nauseam in the alt-right community, who seem intent on convincing each other that they’re the real persecuted victims in America.
I’ve debated with these alt-righters and I have no idea how to get through to them that their perception does not match reality. As a white man myself, I go through day after day without feeling one iota of the sneering that they seem to think is everywhere. As a (mostly) Democratic voter, I vote for candidate after candidate, for platform after platform, that features none of this white-male-sneering that you’re attributing to Democrats in your OP.
So the problem isn’t that progressives are sneering at white men, it’s that low information voters are being manipulated with lies and exaggerations into supporting the GOP. I can’t convince white men that they’re not actually under attack any easier than I can convince them that immigrants aren’t causing a massive crime wave, or welfare recipients aren’t causing their high taxes. It’s not like we can go to leaders in the Democratic party and say, “Hey, knock it off with the white male sneering, take it out of your party platforms, stop campaigning on anti-white-male rhetoric,” because they’ll just stare at us blankly because it isn’t happening. The problem lies entirely in young white men who are buying the bullshit they’re being sold.
Oh, I’m sure they love you. But not everyone wants to play that role. Most men, I think, would balk. Even if they support higher minimum-wage, sharply increased taxes on the wealthy, universal health coverage, strong environmental protection, etc. (all things I strongly support by the way).
ETA: Steronz, your post is a strawman. Democratic Party leaders aren’t doing that because they know better, they understand politics. But the progressives I’m talking about hate Democratic Party leaders and talk shit about them every chance they get, which also doesn’t help defeat Republicans.
It’s a “God of the Gaps” theory: since nobody else is proposing anything, it must be the podcasters who pwned Slacker that are dooming Democrats. It’s all their fault!
Except there’s no gap. The OP’s cite gives us a possible explanation:
So we’ve got two competing theories:
Some really obscure podcasters on the far left are driving national politics; or
The Republicans’ signature achievement, the tax cut, is making some young people happy.
Which theory is supported by evidence? Which theory is likelier?
No, a recent (March, 2018) Pew poll does NOT support that – in fact it indicates even stronger Democratic support among millennials (the context of that poll was party support in the upcoming midterms).
Even if the Reuters poll was accurate – and it doesn’t appear that it is – I’d put more credence in the year-by-year steady increase in support for Dems among millennials over a 14-year period than in an alleged reversal over the past two. One can account for the long-term trend by Republicans shifting ever more toward the lunatic fringe. There’s no credible way to account for the alleged Reuters results. I’ve already explained why I reject your hypothesis, and in any case, social justice warriors are not a new phenomenon that suddenly popped up and influenced millennials over the past two years.
I don’t doubt that the tax cut is part of it. I warned anyone who would listen that demonizing that tax cut last fall was a really stupid mistake by Democrats. And in this case, the actual elected leaders share a lot of the blame.
That’s not to say I like that tax cut. It’s shifted absurdly towards the rich and big business. But that was also true of the Bush tax cuts. What Democrats needed to do was just bide their time, bite their tongues, and then when they get power again do what Obama did: repeal the tax cuts on the wealthy and keep the tax cuts for lower and middle income people. The end result is a tax code that is even more progressive than it was before the Republicans started fiddling with it.
It’s not a strawman, I’m trying to get you to identify the problem. If it’s not party leaders or an organized platform, then who or what? Some unorganized group of progressives? If they’re not organized, how do you propose to control them? To get them to stop their sneering? How many progressives are doing the sneering? What percentage?
You’re suggesting that there’s a problem but you haven’t defined it’s scope, measured its impact, or offered any suggestions on how to solve it.
There’s 300 million Americans, if there’s, say, 100 vocal progressives sneering at white men, and alt-righters are sharing tweets/videos/tumblr posts from those 100 vocal progressives at an incredibly disproportionate rate, is the problem that there’s 100 people you disagree with, or millions who can’t properly perceive reality?