Why the "emerging Democratic majority" isn't happening

This from one of the writers who first posited an “emerging Democratic majority” due to demographic change.

Another problem for Democrats is that they are becoming increasingly reliant on upper income, socially liberal voters to cobble together majorities. Since this group is very likely to defect if their taxes are raised too much, that limits Democrats’ options when trying to create a middle class agenda:

As always, predictions of demographic change are unreliable to begin with. It’s even less reliable trying to figure out how demographic trends will change politics.

Sorry, but I can’t take seriously analysis that suggests that wealthy liberals are likely to vote Republican. Wealthy liberals love it when their taxes go up – that’s a big part of their thing.

I have never met anyone who liked paying more taxes. It’s like a defining ethos of humanity. Perhaps there are people out there, perhaps even on this board, but in my experience they must be improbably rare.

Millionaires perhaps. If that was true of the $100,000-$500,000 range, Northeastern Democrats wouldn’t have been trying to shield that group from tax increases, both in the reversal of the Bush tax cuts(where they were mostly successful), and in proposals to raise the SS earnings cap.

Wallet issues always come before ideals for most voters. Millionaires can afford their ideals. People making $250,000 in the NE, less so. They’ve got private school to pay for.

Apparently rich minorities don’t like paying taxes either. Iiandyii, you can ignore the second paragraph since you’re sure that “lacking confidence in government” cannot possibly be happening.

And it’s not at all hard for Republicans to be acceptable to these affluent socially liberal voters:

When did I ever say this? Cite, please. I’ll repeat my recommendation that you refrain from making any factual assertions without including a cite.

I was a bit hyperbolic, but I’ve seen nothing to suggest that wealthy (or moderately wealthy) liberals oppose raising taxes on the top brackets.

You would think the author would have learned something about identifying “trends” with such limited data. But if it gives you comfort, whatever.

He’s not claiming that we are in an emerging Republican majority, or even that the Democratic majority won’t indeed emerge. Only that the last three elections have seen important voting blocs that Democrats were counting on shift to the Republicans, calling those predictions into question.

The point of the second article is to demonstrate how difficult it is to keep a majority together. You can’t please everyone. If you raise taxes on the affluent, then they will be less likely to support Democrats. But you need to raise taxes on the affluent so that you can trickle some benefits down to the working class that keeps on going Republican.

I pay a lot of taxes and I’m not especially fond of it. However, I vote for the democrats almost always because I believe that’s best for the country and mupy community, even if it personally costs me more.

I may support a democrat that wants to lower my taxes, but I can’t imagine voting for any Rebublican.

I’d bet that most people in your income bracket feel that way. But all it takes is for 1 of every 5 to shift, and boom, Republicans win.

Nobody likes paying taxes per se, but leftward voters are more likely to believe that the taxes they’re being asked to pay will be spent in a way that will somehow benefit them. In some of the bluer states and counties we’ve seen voters approve new sales taxes approved to fund transit and other projects.

Not if Hispanic voter turnout goes way up (or many other possibilities). And it will eventually, though maybe not in the next election.

I’m still waiting for a cite for your claim about me in post #5.

And as Latinos become wealthier, which they will, especially if overall immigration from the south drops, which it is, then Latinos become more Republican.

Sure, just like black people have become more Republican as they’ve become wealthier. Still waiting for your cite for your post #5.

They have not. African-Americans have been a reliable Democratic constituency regardless of income. Latinos, however, have not. Their voting behavior is motivated by the same interests as white voting behavior. they vote Democrat because they tend to be poorer. I’m sure you’re already well aware that they aren’t nearly as reliable a voting bloc for Democrats as African-Americans are.

and you get no cite.

That, and the fact that however bad things got in the Great Recession, a majority of people probably came out relatively unscathed. They didn’t lose their jobs, they didn’t lose their health insurance, and they didn’t lose their homes even if they did take an equity hit. As a result, enough of them may be secure enough in the feeling that everything’s just fine the way it is now, except that they want to get rid of Obamacare. This may change if wages continue to stagnate and more of the “office economy” workers realize their stake is shrinking.

Not now, but I have high hopes that if Republicans continue as they do, they will.

So you made an assertion about me that you can’t or refuse to back up. You know that that’s not a good thing, right?

I think it is happening.

Unless the Republicans wise up.