I mean, it’s not even a wild possibility. And while riding the bus today, I was thinking, given the result of the Confederate States leaving the United States, or even the more recent breakup of the Balkans, to quote Bob Dole, “Where’s the outrage?”
Is it that old saw that wars don’t happen between democracies? Why not? What gives democracies immunity to war between themselves?
Is it that the European Union doesn’t feel like a solid nation like the United States, and so there’s no sense of treason? It’s just an association like NATO?
Or is Europe just too civilized for war these days? (Pardon me for wetting my pants laughing.)
Probably because when the EU was created, they also hashed out a way to leave it: Article 50.
When the Confederate States it was somewhat sudden and the Union didn’t necessarily agree that them leaving was possible. There was no negotiation. Article 50 gives something like 2 years to negotiate a withdraw agreement.
You might get your war, as a renewal of “the troubles” in Northern Ireland. If theres a big push for NI to re-unify with Ireland so they can stay in the EU then the Orange Order and loyalist paramilitaries are likely to violently resist.
It’s just the start. The EU threw out hundreds of years of European tradition, now they’ll return to their natural state of hatred of all other European countries and we’ll have a war soon enough. If the Germans and Brits are smart they’ll team up and meet in the middle of France to save a lot of time.
Quite a bit of Western France is, in fact, English territory … The Netherlands are entitled to Belgium … there’s the eastern provinces, they have a long history of belonging to Germany …
The sad part is that all these European powers used up all their bullets in Libya and it’s going to take them a few decades to build up their supply again.
Because there is nothing to go to war over. The British economy will take a hit. The economies of England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland will take a hit. So will the economies of the EU. There will be tough times ahead. I expect the British to come together and create an even greater Great Britian.
These are reasonable people, for the most part. They’ve overcome greater obsticles than this. No one is under physical attack. There are no bullets flying and people dying and there’s no reason for anyone to start a actual war.
OTOH, Putin may chose to expand Russian territory or influence???
Meanwhile, back in 1861 U.S.A, southern states had chosen to leave the Union. One by one they had rejected the current federal government. They then chose to join together and create their own federal Confederate government. So far so good. Some economic difficulties/hardships for both sides but no one died and there was no reason for war.
And then someone decided it would be a good idea to attack the Union troops at Ft. Sumter.
The citizens of the northern states didn’t care if the southern states left the U.S.A… Buh bye. Have a nice day. So long. Get well soon. But the citizens of the northern states were not going to stand by and let any (now) foreign power attack them. If YOU want a war, then YOU shall have a war.
This is absolutely false. The North was furious over secession and was not going to allow it; Fort Sumter was a match, but the gasoline was already being poured.