Me? Not so hot. I do believe this is the same government that, at best, tacitly condones a brutal program of genocide within its borders.
I know the question has been asked before, but are these Iranians truly nuts? Does the slow, steady slaughter in Darfur not bother them? Are they aware of how provocative the idea of “nuclear aid” to Sudan might be? Is every despotic third world regime supposed to have fissile, perhaps weapons-grade material at their disposal now? That seems to be the attitude of Iran’s head cleric. To me, this gesture may be a line in the sand, a deliberate attempt to force a response. It looks like brinksmanship to me.
I’m afraid I’m a bit too dense to understand the strategic benefit of Iran inviting a military strike on itself, so I don’t think I can help you there.
It seems pretty clear that Iran is attempting to send a message that if the US is indeed contemplating a pre-emptive military strike of some kind, that Iran is in the process of dispersing at least part of its nuclear efforts to ensure that such a strike would less effective. It’s just more jawboning, and I wouldn’t go much further than that.
I presume that if questioned, Khameini would say that he was “of course” referring to transfer of technology for nuclear power generation. I don’t necessarily believe that, but I will point out that at no point does the article discuss Iran’s efforts as anything other than a “nuclear program” and “uranium enrichment”.
If they’re nuts, would it really surprise you if they don’t are about Darfur? I can certainly believe they don’t care, or don’t care much compared to the benefits they imagine from a nuclear Sudan.
I’m not going to argue against the Iranian government being at least a little crazy, but I wouldn’t call them stupid. You don’t hold on to a dictatorship for decades by being stupid. So I say yes, they are aware.
I think we - on this board and in this country - are in a panicky mood on the subject of Iran. They’re deliberately saying a lot of alarming things. While those things shouldn’t be ignored, they shouldn’t be taken literally either. They’re not afraid to overdo it with the bluster.
I have no idea why people say Iran is stupid or crazy for doing what it’s doing these days. I don’t like it at all, but what they’re doing is understandable and intelligent.
Let’s put this in perspective. Saudis are considered slightly whack* by most Westerners. Saudis Consider Iranians quite whack, and the Sudanese very whack indeed.
*To use the clinical term.
I think with other administrations it might be. Unfortunately, we’ve got a bit of a nutter here in the White House, and that has changed the rules considerably. My suspicion fits with those above, that Iran’s declaration to supply “nuclear aid” to Sudan can only be taken semi-seriously. However, considering how very “whack” the Sudanese govt. clearly is, that Iran should juxtapose the words “sharing” and “nuclear” with reference to Sudan should have the hawks in Washington, and perhaps some parts of Europe, on pins and needles.
And that’s not a good thing. Brinksmanship has worked for North Korea largely because they could rain destruction on Seoul any time they like with conventional artillery. Now that they (quite probably) have nukes, any armed conflict with N.K. involves planning for the complete destruction of one of the world’s largest cities. Fortunately for everyone (except the North Koreans), N.K.'s regime is not an outward-looking one, and they seem uniterested in projecting power except as a bargaining chip.
Iran’s leadership keeps talking about destroying Israel. Again, largely bluster, but in a nuclear M.E., that bluster takes on a different meaning, not the least to the Israelis. Iran is basically threatening to meet pressure with proliferation, and have picked on of the most dysfunctional nations in the general vicinity to share its nuclear technology with. While Iran lacks the bomb, it has no deterrent that would prevent us in all circumstances from attacking their nuclear program. The more they ratchet up the rhetoric, the more tempting, I would imagine, it is to the hawks to take this opportunity to end nuclear proliferation in the M.E. (and Islamist environs).
I take it most people shrug at this latest provocation. I’m a bit more worried.
Yeah, I am a bit myself. I think that there are certain folks on this board that tend to blow off whatever Iran says as if its not serious, or as if they don’t REALLY mean it.
Perhaps thats the case…maybe threats against Israel, the pursuit of a nuclear agenda despite almost universal global condemnation, and now this latest minor issue of perhaps giving nuclear technology (for power only, to be sure :dubious: ) to those happy and stable folks in the Sudan…maybe all this adds up to much ado about nothing. Or perhaps, just perhaps mind you, there is a pattern here…
Not that we can do a whole hell of a lot about it right now. GW has fucked us wrt a real military option in Iran (both from a logistics perspective as well as a credibility perspective)…and the Iranians know it. They are free to do whatever crazy thing they want with the US’s hands basically tied. The only thing they have to worry about at all is Israel…and Israel is a bit far away from the perspective of an invasion. The Israeli’s, like just about every other nation on earth (with the exception of America pre-Iraq) just don’t have the logisitics assets to mount a full scale invasion of Iran. Air strikes, sure…but not an invasion.
With China and Russia hemming and hawing about doing anything, with Europe being, well, Europe, and with the US’s crank firmly trampled by our own golf shoes, Iran is basically testing the bounds of what it can do by pushing the envelope as far as it will go. The fact we can’t do anything about it is no cause not to be alarmed by what seems to be a rather grim trend from my perspective. Maybe the folks who feel Iran is just kidding feel better about thinking of it from that perspective. Myself, I’m starting to get more and more alarmed as this crisis drags on and the Iranians keep upping the ante…
But that’s exactly why they’re doing this. They think he’s crazy and they think they need nuclear weapons to keep him (and future Presidents) away. I see most of their other comments regarding Israel, and now Sudan, in the same way I saw North Korea’s remarks a few years ago. They’re saying whatever they can to improve their bargaining position.
I’m not saying I’m not worried about this. Iran is much more likely to share this technology with terrorists than Iraq ever was. And while I know Iran is aware of the consequences of working with terrorist groups and other bad eggs these days, that didn’t stop A.Q. Khan.
