I thought this would be all over Straight Dope Chicago, but I guess not.
I must admit to being torn at the thought of Rahm as Da Mare. I actually kinda like what I hear about the guy, although I don’t think I’d want to work for him. But the City Council could use some buttkicking.
But still, as a Chicagoan, I don’t appreciate the “done deal” assumption of this. Like Rahm is just gonna waltz in from Washington and all of Chicago will be at his feet, at least that’s what the media talk sounds like. I think the next mayoral election is going to be one down and dirty fight, and no way does Rahm have an automatic lock on this.
Sure, Rahm is a Chicagoan, but he’s more an outsider than any of the others considering a run.
I just don’t like it when national types take Chicago’s acquiescence for granted. I mean, Marshall Field’s? Fuck you, it’s Macy’s now.
I gotta say though, a great poster slogan for Rahm would be “Vote for me or go fuck yourself.”
My suspicion (and I am, by no means, an expert, though I’ve been watching Chicago politics for two decades, having moved here a few weeks after Daley II took office) is that Emanuel will suck a lot of the oxygen out of the room for the Democratic candidates, particularly the non-black ones. There are several blacks considering runs, and, if most or all of them enter, it seems likely that they’ll split most of the black vote between them. If that happens, it seems to me that Rahm would likely get the nomination.
Kenobi, there is no nomination. It’s a non-partisan, anyone-can-enter-who-wants-to, election. If nobody gets over 50%, the top two have a runoff. In the scenario you describe, the top black candidate and Rahm would be in the runoff.
Personally, I’m not so sure that Rahm will get that many votes. Chicagoans consider themselves a breed apart, and don’t cotton to outsiders, even outsiders who were born here. I suspect someone with better local bona-fides could kick Rahm’s ass at the polls.
I no longer reside in Chicago, but my $0.02 is that Rahm seems like a crafty and opportunistic carpetbagger. This is not to say he wouldn’t be an effective mayor, but it doesn’t help his chances of being elected.
Again from afar, I can’t help but think the black community in Chicago would really prefer a black man/woman.
Don’t know about the Latino community. Might it not hold the key to someone getting elected, similar to how the independents hold the key to national/presidential elections?
Does Rahm’s candidacy not put Obama in an awkward position? On one hand, Rahm has been a loyal Obama supporter, but will Obama take heat from the black community if he supports a white candidate, especially a north sider?
Hi SDT- I may be wrong here, but I believe the white, black, and Latino factions are pretty much equally balanced in Chicago these days. Nobody can grab power without forming a coalition with at least one other faction. That was Daley’s genius: he managed to appeal to everyone. At least, enough to get their votes.
I don’t see anyone else with that kind of cross-faction appeal today. Maybe Rahm thinKs he will get black and white support through his Obama connection. It will be interesting…TRM (who lives in the city and WILL vote… at least once)
First of all, there’s an election in a month. I want to get through that one before I even think about February.
Emanuel and Obama don’t exactly go way back. There’s no real reason Obama has to endorse anyone for Mayor, and I don’t think he will.
Emanuel was my Congressman before taking the WH job, and he’s hardly a carpetbagger. He was here a lot during that time, and was effective in getting stuff for the district. This does not mean I am automatically voting for him–I want to see who else is running, I want to weigh my options.
I’m a Chicagoan, and I will be somewhat surprised if he does walk away with it. I’m not saying he can’t win the nomination, obviously, but I’m having a real difficult time seeing Chicagoans relating to him. I think it’s going to be a very close race, and I don’t think Rahm is going to end up on top. We’ll see indeed. I’d actually be happy to give him a chance to captain the ship (I haven’t decided who I’m voting for yet), but the word in my neck of the woods seems to be mostly negative so far.
I ran into a Rahm minion collecting signatures for him at Clark and Diversey today. I asked him, what are some of Rahm’s platform positions? What does he plan for the city? Where does he stand on some of the issues?
He said Rahm hasn’t formulated any positions yet, and isn’t even sure he is running yet. I told him, no thanks, I’m not interested in signing.
I heard Gery Chico interviewed on the radio yesterday (WLS). He seemed very prepared, with some well-thought out ideas that sounded like they would be good for the city. He’s my new favorite. For now.
I’m thinking of throwing my hat in the ring myself. So far, it’s a bunch of lightweights. I can compete with them!
Another theory: the city is in a budget crisis. Whoever is the next mayor will have to face it, and will no doubt go down in flames for failing at an impossible task. And the city will then cry out for a savior. Maybe Richie will (grudgingly) come back to save the day after a one-term vacation?
At this point, it seems Rahm is the foregone conclusion, with Dart out of the race. We’ll see when the candidates list is official, but with the current group of probable candidates, I will revise my prediction to Emanuel winning handily.
Now there seem to be a bunch of challenges to Rahm’s eligibility, based on his lack of residency in our fair city for the last two years. I’ve heard many arguments on both sides of this equation. Does anyone have the straight dope? What exactly *are *the residency requirements? And does he meet them? And if he doesn’t, does he have the clout to get approved anyway?
