I’d say, all of the above? Sure, they’d really like to be President, and if a miracle occurs, and the MAGAts finally see through his bullshit, one of the other people running will become the nominee for President this year.
But if that fails, as is likely? Then any of the other results would be acceptable. Do you think either would turn down the nomination just because Trump was dead or in jail? Do you think either would turn down the VP position, knowing that this would set them up as the presumptive nominee in 2028? And as others have said, if Trump runs and loses, then they have the built-in narrative that “I would have won!” when they run again in 2028.
All of those scenarios counts as some kind of a win for either of them. They’re both young enough to know they’ll get another kick at this particular can, and it’s a safe bet they’ve both been planning their route to the Presidency for most of their lives; that’s just how people like them think. Another four years until 2028 isn’t a huge setback for their plans.
Of the three possibilities, I put the vice presidency last. These are people with colossal egos and aren’t in it to be #2. I think they just miscalculated the mood of the Republican electorate, thinking that the voters were ready to move on. They aren’t.
What keeps them in? I think most likely to get the name recognition and establishing a ground game for 2028. They know they can’t get the nomination this time around. But they’re establishing contacts in the states that make a 2028 run more viable.
If you gave them truth serum, they’d like for DJT to be in prison and have the party turn to them as the white knight to save the day. But I think should a conviction come before the convention, the party would double down and nominate a convicted felon.
My early pick for a VP nominee: Kari Lake. She’s got the election-denying and utter loyalty boxes checked. Plus I bet Donnie thinks she’s hot, his defining criterion for any woman.
Running for office, unless you are an incumbent, is almost always a high-risk job search technique. There’s not much more explanation needed than that.
Haley got into politics by beating, in the primary, an incumbent Republican. So she has a history of beating the odds. Why not try again?
I know this is an accusation thrown out often, where a candidacy is dismissed as a publicity stunt. And there are some campaigns that seem like they have to be a publicity stunt because there is no other explanation; they have no real chance at winning and often there is a book or something else they are pushing that would benefit from the publicity. I don’t see anyone actually admitting this often, though, so finding a cite for the claim wouldn’t be possible.
When someone gets less than a percentage point in polls and might not even be eligible (such as not meeting age requirements or not being a natural citizen) then it’s just common sense that they must have an ulterior motive. Unless they’re just delusional.
Whether or not the “vast majority” of people running have an ulterior motive, that I’m not sure about.
My bet is on Sarah Huckabee-Sanders. She was part of the initial team of his admin.
As for Haley and Desantis, while I agree their egos are keeping their campaigns aloft for now, how soon will their donors, who enable the campaigns in the first place, continue writing checks for an inevitable loser? Surely some of those donors are not as delusional?
The donors play the long game too. If either is still viable for 2028, there will be a few sidling up to them with bags of money, and reminding them of how they were supported the last time, even up to the point that they lost.
Yep. trump could die, get very sick, be disqualified or be in jail/etc.
They aint hoping for Veep.
No, the voters told us in 2020 they were ready to move on, but trump has a hard core MAGA group that will back him no matter what. Even if he is in jail.
I think Haley and DeSantis think they can convince MAGAs that they are New-Trump while convincing moderate Pubs they are Not-Trump. As Iowa showed they are 0 for 2 on that.
I’ve been hearing rumblings about Stefanik for VP, but I just don’t see it. Whatever her personality is actually like, I think her face has a warm and welcoming look. There’s a softness there, particularly in the cheeks and jaw. I think her figure has somewhat the same look. And she has dark hair and brown eyes. Trump wants more angular, sharper looks in women, looks more typical of women who are models or at least are in the modeling field. Moreover, he has a pretty strong preference for blondes. I don’t see Stefanik having these “qualifications”.
Loyalty is just as important to Trump, I speculate, and Stefanik has that in spades. She pretty much completely repudiated her own past to become a Trump cheerleader. But for women, I don’t think Trump could let go of his preferences regarding physical appearance.
It will be interesting to see how that particular issue comes out.
Yeah, there’s a bit of a “Stefanik for VP” boomlet going on right now. And I think your analysis is spot on. But if there’s one lesson I think that Trump took from his failed insurrection, it’s the importance of absolute, slavish subservience in his VP. That’s why I can’t see him choosing Haley, DeSantis, Cruz, Hawley, or some of the other names that have been mentioned. They’re all too clearly ambitious to be President and ready to stab him in the back if it serves their interests. He needs a complete bootlicker who he can count on to do his bidding without hesitation.
How about somebody who is ambitious, but in another field? Tucker Carlson, or Sean Hannity, for example. In their case, ambition perhaps isn’t a problem. Though, entertainers do tend to get a lot of attention, and that might rule them out as options.
