So the house passed a bill 217-215 that can cut taxes by up to 4.5 trillion and cut spending by up to 2 trillion over the next 10 years. My understanding is those numbers are dependent, so if they can only find 1 trillion to cut, they can only cut 3.5 trillion in taxes.
However its also my impression that there is nothing actually in the bill, its just numbers. The GOP can cut taxes for whoever they want or cut whatever taxes they want, and they can cut spending wherever they want. Is that correct? So right now they could cut corporate taxes and income taxes, or they could cut some other taxes (but realistically they’re going to cut taxes for the rich and the powerful). Meanwhile they can cut 2 trillion in spending from whatever they want. Is all that correct?
Its also my understanding that extending the 2017 tax cuts alone will cost an extra 4 trillion dollars. So wouldn’t that mean that simply extending the 2017 tax cuts would mean the GOP couldn’t really enact new tax cuts, just keep the ones that currently exist? Its my impression that just keeping the 2017 Trump tax cuts will cost 4 trillion in 10 years, which means the GOP can either repeal the 2017 tax cuts and enact new tax cuts, or just extend the 2017 tax cuts. Or extend some of the 2017 tax cuts but not others.
Also aren’t the GOP trying to increase spending for things like immigration enforcement, if so how would that fit into the bill since this bill is supposed to be about spending cuts and tax cuts?
Am I correct in thinking that the Senate has to pass this bill before it goes to the president for signature, or it has to go through reconciliation? Is the Republican held Senate passing the House’s budget bill as it is currently written a fait accompli? I think I remember hearing the Senate had their own budget bill, but Trump favored the House’s version.
My understanding is that the GOP passed a bill giving themselves permission to give 4.5 trillion in tax cuts and 2 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years.
But we have no idea who they actually are going to give tax cuts to or what spending cuts they are going to enact.
I mean, we know ‘who’ they are giving tax cuts to (corporations and the wealthy) we just don’t know what kind of tax cuts they’ll do it with (corporate tax cuts, dividend tax cuts, income tax cuts, capital gains tax cuts, etc). And we don’t know what spending cuts they’ll use. We don’t know if they’ll cut 2 trillion from Medicaid and the ACA, or what they’ll do. Also I don’t know if they’ll had hundreds of billions for border control and deportation to the bill too.
The senate will be far easier to pass a bill. There are only 101 members (100 senators and a VP tie breaker). The GOP can lose 3 votes in the senate and still pass a bill with JD vance as the senate tie breaker.
in the House with its 435 members (currently 433 due to vacancies, I think) the GOP can only lose 1 vote and still pass a bill.
Any shortfall that risks the tax cut can be covered by just borrowing more. I’ve said elsewhere that we’re witnessing the greatest act of theft in human history. They’re going to borrow trillions of dollars, then ship it all out to their rich friends via tax cuts. And the vast majority of US citizens won’t see any benefit from this, but they will be on the hook for paying back those loans. Shades of Goodfellas.
As the OP says, it’s (at best) just a light outline of what direction they’d like to go, with the specifics meant to be worked out once they’ve agreed on the top line numbers. The current effort is just (in theory) to arrive at those top line numbers.
In theory, they’re planning to increase defense spending, increase border protection funding (particularly the Coast Guard), cut taxes, but make that all balance out better than current by decreasing overall spending elsewhere.
Initially, they were saying that Medicaid would get the hatchet but, currently, they’re saying that it will largely be left alone and are denying the earlier statement.
In general, I’m expecting them to trim 0.5% of the total Federal budget, at most, while adding 2-3% more to it. Including tax cuts, that’s basically going to do what happened with Trump the first time and balloon our debt.
To my knowledge, none of this is based on any math that demonstrates any particular good outcome from any of this. (Though, of course, neither was the existing Federal budget.) I also expect decreased tax revenue, if we succeed in deportations of large percentages of the work force which would further exacerbate the problem.
