The cold war between Armenia and Azerbaijan appears to be heating back up.
Background:
The dispute is over the region between their two countries. Its population is mostly ethnically Armenian but it was legally part of Azerbaijan from back in the Soviet era. After the Soviet Union broke up, the region declared its independence from Azerbaijan and formed a de facto country, the Republic of Artsakh. Azerbaijan still claims the region as its territory. If I’m understanding the Armenian position correctly, it doesn’t have an official position. It denies Azerbaijani sovereignty over the region but doesn’t recognize Artsakhi independence either. And it doesn’t officially claim the territory for Armenia although it does occupy a good piece of it.
Diplomatic situation:
Russia has backed both sides while favoring Armenia more. Russian goals seems to be just keeping the conflict unresolved.
Iran once favored Azerbaijan but now seems to favor Armenia. They appear to be following Russia’s lead.
Turkey’s position is the clearest. They have consistently supported Azerbaijan.
America has shown some support for both sides without really offering aid to either side.
What’s happening now:
Last Sunday shooting started across the de facto border. Azerbaijan claims Armenian forces in Artsakh started the shooting. But most sources are saying the Azerbaijanis started the attacks.
What does this mean:
My belief is that Azerbaijan started the recent round of fighting. Armenia and Artsakh had no reason to restart the fighting; they were both relatively happy with the status quo. And despite Azerbaijani claims of Armenian attacks, it appears Azerbaijan was prepared for fighting while Armenia was not.
My guess is Turkey pushed Azerbaijan into restarting the fighting. There are reports of Syrian mercenaries, who previously fought for Turkey in Syria, now fighting alongside the Azerbaijanis in Artsakh.
