So...what's/where's/who's it going to be?

Hi there, SDMB paranoid anxiety sufferer checking in…

I sat around with hubby and friend last night speculating on where…when and what the ‘next attack’ will be, as so cryptically alluded to by John Ashcroft yesterday while I was trying to enjoy a nice walk outside.

I say Hoover Dam or Vegas. Although I have no idea what in the world they would do since plane bombs seem out of the picture.

Hubby says overseas interests, but if that’s the case, why are they putting the fright into those of us on the ‘mainland’?

What’s going on?! When’s it going to happen? I live in Target, Illinois on Target Avenue, two buildings down From the Target Hancock Target. I feel like that woman in Airplane! who has to be slapped by all the passengers.

jar

Naw, they’re targeting the political and financial superstructures of America, and much though I love the Windy City, I don’t think it qualifies as part of America’s political and financial superstructure.

[here endeth the mudslinging from Downstate]
[hee]

but–STAY OUT OF THE MALLS TOMORROW!!

[jumps out from behind door at Jarbaby]

OOGA BOOGA!!

:eek:
[sub]hehe [/sub]

I’d guess the Olympics are a pretty darn big target.

If and when it ever happens again, I believe they will hit small town America. Just to show the world that no place, however small, is safe.

Except that Ashcroft said it will be within the next week.

Your house, Jarbaby.

Now doesn’t that sound silly? You are in NO danger, so please stop worrying because we love you and don’t want to see you fret over imaginary dangers.

I went to the National Gallery two weeks ago to see the “Virtue and Beauty” exhibit of 15th and 16th century Florentine paintings of women. As I walked through the gallery, it occurred to me what a great target the Smithsonian museums in general would be. Naked torsos, pictures on unveiled women, representational art, pictures of God, all of which would offend the fundamentalists sensibilities of OBL and the Taliban. What a slap in the face to the Western world to destroy centuries of art at one blow, not to mention the chance to kill lots of Americans.

More likely would be an attack on an outdoor stadium, or perhaps an attempted assassination of the president. If I were a terrorist, I would have found a way to contaminate subway air conditioning systems with anthrax spores, or maybe smallpox.

I’m in NO danger? 0? I don’t think so. You know my mom calls and tells me this. But my mom’s BANK isn’t in the John Hancock building. My MOM doesn’t have tickets to the Bears Packers game, Bulls opening game, Blackhawks game AND Bears Browns.

I’M GOING TO BE in outdoor stadiums. I’m going to be in indoor stadiums, later today I’ll be in the second tallest building in the city. there are two embassies in the building I WORK IN.

So, no I’m not a prime target, but don’t say I’m in NO danger. because I am. I’m just trying to get an idea of what’s going to be next. Precisely since last week we were talking about OBL and his nuke possibilities.

jar

So **jarbabyj ** want to be friends?

Seriously, I doubt Chicago is a target. While I love the city and while it is a financial and political center, I don’t believe it is viewed that way by foreigners. I think NY, DC or LA are much more likely targets.

Well, since I have some experience with living with terrorism and risk, let me try.

(a) Thinking about this stuff does you no good. None of us have the data to predict with any reasonable certainty upcoming targets, ergo there is no real action for you as individual to take. I rather dislike these announcements for just that reason, although I understand the reason (gonna leak anyway).

Some reasonable guesses, like gobears (and unlike Reeders), can be made based on past pattern but you, I, gobear, can’t do fuck all about it. Unless you want to live in quivering fear.

I’ve spent a good number of years in the Mid East. Last year in Egypt, site of numerous terror attacks. Things got real fun when the intifada started again. And the US embassy helpfully warned US citizens that we were (are) at risk and should avoid public places.

The folks who suffered were those expats who couldn’t stop thinking about it. One takes reasonable actions to limit risk (See large crowd with shouting. See the blue tin cans rolling up with the security forces, start moving the other way.) and then forgets about. Just like driving a car.

Could you drive if you spent all your time thinking about what if that Explorer or that Mac crushed me? etc. You’ve internalized actions to avoid as much risk as you can – defensive driving and all that-- and have forgotten the risk --in fact a larger one than a terror attack-- that Mr. Ford Explorer or Mr. Overweight Mac truck ain’t gonna see you, or will drop hot coffee on his lap and make a sudden that you can’t compensate for. And you’re dead.

Fear does you no good and just leads to mental suffering on your part.

(b) No, you’re not in no danger. But the % chance of you dieing from a terror attack is a whole fucking lot lower than say a car accident. Your risk is low.

© There are no embassies in Chicago. Consulates, yes, but consulates are rarely well-known. There’s no reason to get worked up about consulates. In any case, if the consulates are of “high profile” nations, you actually are probably safer around them given Sec. Serv. surviellance is very high nowadays.

(d) ObL is unlikely to have nuclear capacity. If he does, in an effective way, then we are all in world of shit no matter what you do.

I recall taking a desert taxi across the Sahara, in the Egyptian Western Desert. Now these guys, well just imagine taking a jeep across fine sand at 100kph on bare tires. Now imagine you’re sitting in an open jeep with no seat belts and you’re going up and down dunes and the driver shows little consciousness of center of gravity and rollover concerns.

Well, given I had no way to get anywhere except with one of these motherfuckers, and walking in the Western Sahara ain’t too smart, I just had to suck it up. I spent a lot of time enjoying the view and doing little mental games to not think about what a fucking stupid thing it was to come all the fuck out in the Western Sahara.

I’m not a brave guy, but experience has taught me that obsessing about risks you can’t change does you not one fuck of good and a lot of harm.

Enjoy your game, put your trust in security. There is nothing else to do. Nothing, nada, rien, walou, nothing.

By the way, thanks everyone, but I’ve sort of got my terror under control, and i wasn’t really looking for ‘comfort’ this time. I genuinely wanted to debate where we thought the next important target would be.

Thanks Collunsbury for the clear up. All this time I thought consulates and embassies were the same!

jar

Jar, I hope you’re serious and I didn’t accidentally patronize you. If so, I apologize.

In case not, I just thought I would add that the consulates in Chicago are probably (a) visa clearing centers for countries with large numbers of citizens in Chicago – it’s been years since I’ve been in Chicago but I’d guess Latin American (b) commercial service centers dealing in business community services (visas, commercial clearances, trade services.). Consulates are not even necessarily staffed by diplomats. I could be a consular officer for a country. They just need to deliver me some representations, register me with USGov and I have limited diplo immunity in regards to my consular duties.

Of course some consulates are in fact like mini-embassies. Those in NYC, for example, are frequently so (of course they’re often part of the UN missions).

In re future targets debate: we know too little to have a GD, IMHO but I suggest that given past experience in re the groups which make up al-Qaeda, high-profile targets (for them, not necessarily for you) like those gobear listed are most likely. Urban area is most likely simply for cover reasons. Precision I suspect is impossible even for the folks with security clearances.

No, Collunsbury, I mean it. I didn’t know they were different.

I told you before I’m a theatre major…I don’t know jack about anything :slight_smile:

jar

Ah good, I was concerned I was being more, well you know, than usual.

In re embassies and consulates, as a general matter only representations to the political capitol of a nation are embassies, while all other representations are consulates. Consulates is a grab bag term which can cover the whole range noted in my prior message.

Note, my statement in re me being able to be the consular official for a for. country is based on my general recollection of international practice. I frankly don’t recall what specific rules the US has established.

In any case, this is all quite esoteric if one is not dealing with it regularly.

Just for you, jarbabyj:

http://63.74.123.104/report.asp?rec=78

partial quote:

Hey, jarbaby, stay :cool:

Yankee Stadium, World Series game 3, 4, or 5. What better way to strike at Yankee imperialists? But if I had tickets, I’d still go.

Today’s warning.

CNN’s Major Garrett offers the following insight.

Okay, how many of you out there remember theOctober 11 warning? Hands?
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Neither did I, actually. I had to go look it up. And the reason I don’t remember it is–nothing happened. I’ve been sitting here rummaging around, and the only thing I could find that fits the time period would be that Tom Daschle’s anthrax letter was postmarked October 9. But this is not blowing up a Bulls game, or ramming a Ryder truck filled with explosives into the John Hancock building.

All I can think of, in terms of high-profile “ugly American” targets, would be the space shuttle, and the next space shuttle launch isn’t scheduled until November 29.

Next would be the World Series. Bush is going to be at tonight’s game, so you can bet security will be tight.

Next would be putting something into a water reservoir for either D.C. or New York. Security–ditto.

Next would be the Academy Awards show, but they aren’t until next spring.

Well, if you’re going to steal horses, steal thoroughbreds. If I wanted to do noticeable, long-term damage, I’d blow up all the fire departments, then have some fire bombs go off elsewhere in town.

'course, that’s a whole lotta car bombs… maybe they could do it for one large city, or a couple dozen small, isolated ones (where there’s only one fire station).

Since they haven’t revealed what form of intelligence they are basing the “credible threat” on, I’m hoping for this relatively positive scenario: Maybe they are close to making arrests in the Anthrax investigation, and worried about coordinating things to avoid any “last-ditch” action by those responsible.

More pessimistically, maybe there’s no intelligence at all, and they are thinking that it’s “credible” to assume that someone might take advantage of the ability to walk around in full disguise during halloween for some nefarious purpose.

Who knows? Ashcroft may as well have said “Be afraid. Be very afraid.” :wink:

Judging from the results of the other warnings to date, my guess would be “Nowhere, USA.”

I don’t think there is going to be an attack.

If there really were going to be an attack, they would give us some kind of advice…like “avoid public places” or “keep tuned to the radio so you know what to do” or “stock up on bottled water”. Instead, they give us vague whispers that something somewhere may or may not happen. Gee thanks…a warning that vague would apply to every single day of human history. It doesn’t do me a lick of good.

It can do John Ashcroft some good, though. He’s got several bits of contriversial legislation that only have a chance of passing if there is enough fear and hysteria that we will give up civil liberties. Unfortunatly, I no longer consider Ashcroft credible, and I have a hard time believeing his warnings.