Solitaire - what are the odds?

Imagine playing solitaire and there are no moves available. One way it could happen is if the board has all of one suit, say clubs, with no ace and going through the deck it just happens that only spades appear (again with no ace).

What are the odds of such a situation occurring? Has it ever happened to you?

I suspect that it’s happened to everyone who’s ever played Solitaire, since that’s the condition to lose a game, and less than half of Solitaire games are won.

I interpreted the OP to mean that there were no moves available from the very beginning of the game.

But I have no idea what the odds are, and I suspect there’s no feasible way to calculate them besides trial and error (the “Monte Carlo method”). Besides, there’s more than one variation of Solitaire.

Yes, I meant no moves from the outset.

The variation of solitaire is the one implemented in the Solitare program that ships with windows - with the default three card draw option.

Can anyone at least calculate how many opening variations there are, discounting as identical any transpositions?

And why can’t it figure out that you’ve won without you manually moving all of the cards to the top row? Why can’t it, or any other version I’ve played, saw to itself, “Hmmm, no cards are in the pile, everything is else is face up and in the correct order. Looks like he won.”

If you right click when that happens it will move all the cards it can to the top row :slight_smile:

I’ll take this to mean “transpositions of cards which are inaccessible”, since if you discount as identical all transpositions, then all openings are identical. In that case, there are 7 cards face-up on the table, and 24 cards in the draw stack, of which 8 are accessible. This gives a total of 15 accessible cards: The first one has 52 possibilities, the second one has 51, and so on, with the last one having 38 possibilities. Multiplying them together, we get 52! / 37! , or 5.8610[sup]24[/sup]. If we also don’t care what order the face-up cards are in, and what order the accessible draw cards are in, then we also have to divide by 7! and 8! , leaving 2.8810[sup]16[/sup] possibilities.

I’ve been playing the same game of solitaire on my PDA since I got it a few years ago.

As of right now, I’m $27,992 in the hole. I should really try and find a strategy guide for Klondike somewheres.

[sarcastic] And do you know that because you READ THE INSTRUCTIONS? [/sarcastic]

Thanks! :smiley:

That’s what I meant as transpositional identicality (band name?)

I have been engaged in a solitaire experiment for the past couple of years. I want to find out what the average loss on a single deal is. I play the Las Vegas game where you pay $52 for the deck and receive $5 for each card you get up. The draw is one card and you go through the deck once.

So far I have played 916 games and the average loss/game is about $16.50. I have drawn a blank twice.