Secret CIA documents show the US had plans to either give the Falkland Islands to Argentina and repatriate the islanders to Scotland or allow them become Argentine citizens because the spy agency thought the UK would lose the 1982 war. The papers, called ‘Solution to the Falkland Islands crisis,’ appear to the show the intelligence agency felt the UK had seriously underestimated the capabilities of the Argentine military when the two countries fought a short but savage war over the South Atlantic archipelago.
My question is when was this CIA paper was made and announced in 1982? Can you help me to find the exact date that this paper was made and announced? I just couldn’t find it on the internet. Thank you for your help in advance.
Where did you hear about them in the first place, if not the internet? Would your original source for this info have the answer?
It seems pretty implausible that a credible intelligence estimate would assess that the United Kingdom would lose the Falkland Islands to Argentina. Although the air forces and ground combat elements of both nations were involved in the war it was primarily a naval conflict and the British Navy was widely considered the second most capable naval power (after the United States Navy) at the time, and that the Argentines, regarded as having a third rate Navy and not very impressive air power capabilities were able to materially damage the MV Atlantic Conveyor and sink the HMS Sheffield (using Exocet anti-ship missiles) and sink the HMS Coventry with bombs dropped from obsolescent A-4C Skyhawks exposed massive holes in the USN-BN strategy for securing the North Atlantic in a hypothetical NATO-USSR conflict. Regardless, the Argentine Navy was largely sidelined after British upped their sea offense game and if they’d had a real aircraft carrier instead of “thru deck cruisers” that could only field short range Sea Harriers they would never have been able to even achieve that much control.
At any rate, the US had neither the legal authority nor effective means to to “give the Falkland Islands to Argentina” and US policy was largely geared toward encouraging the UK to negotiate a quick, favorable settlement with the Galtieri government largely to limit the perception of ineffectualness of the British Navy. Since Leopoldo Galtieri was removed from power shortly after the British retook the islands and the Third Junta collapsed soon after in 1983 it was a moot point.
I’m not clear where the o.p. got his information but there are a lot of “secret CIA documents” floating out there, many of the bogus but some genuine if representing a minority opinion or floating a hypothetical not supported by evidence. Just because there is a document with agency letterhead or a memo issued by someone employed by the agency does not make it accepted agency assessment which is generally provided as a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). The o.p. can, of course, make a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) for NIE or search the National Security Archive since intelligence pertaining to a 40 year old conflict that the US and Soviet Union were not directly involved with is almost certainly declassified by now.
Stranger
Copying the OP’s first paragraph into Google, leads me to the first hit here. Turns out it’s an article on the Independent way back in January of 2017. It’s pay-walled.
You are very good at this thing.
Not paywalled for me:
‘Titled “Solution to the Falkland Islands crisis,” … [i]t was written by Henry Rowen, then head of the National Intelligence Council, and are part of 12 million formerly-classified papers released by the CIA this week."’
I can’t see a date on the page, so I’m not sure when “this week” is, but googling a couple of quoted phrases within the article, it appears to be January of 2017. The earliest sources I find are The Daily Mail (CIA’s secret plan to give the Falklands to Argentina | Daily Mail Online) and The Sun, two British tabloids.
What “thing”?
Hell, Reagan wanted to give Thatcher an aircraft carrier group.
Asking for verification. Links. Did you pull this out of your hat, or what?
Seems more like a possible proposal than a set plan to me, but those more in the know might know better.
I want to the date the solution was made in 1982, but i couldn’t find it.
Instead, the U.K. fought and won, the islanders kept their British alignment, and a savage junta infamous for its Dirty War - Wikipedia was so discredited that it fell.
You know, sometimes fighting is the right thing to do.
Did he? I honestly can’t find a lot that Reagan had to say about it other than a dismissive comment about fighting over some ice-covered rocks (or words to that effect; I can’t find the specific context in a quick search). I know there was a lot of pressure for the UK to resolve this quick because this was at a point of rising tensions with the Warsaw Pact, and except for the UK and Argentina nobody really cared. All evidence has that Galtieri was actually just saber-rattling to distract from economic and social problems in Argentina and never actually intended to go to blows over it. The US ended up providing some satellite (and maybe signals) intelligence to the UK but I strongly doubt that the USN would have dispatched a carrier group to the South Atlantic while US and USSR pilots were buzzing each others naval vessels with increasing frequency, and they certainly wouldn’t have ceded operational command to the British Navy.
Stranger
I searched and found this: SOLUTION TO THE FALKLAND ISLANDS CRISIS | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov).
Based on the link, the publication date of the solution is January 1, 1982.
Yet, the Argentine invasion of the Falkland Islands happened on 2 April 1982. That’s why I want to consult SD.
That’s just a memo from Henry Rowen to Paul Wolfowitz (then on the Policy Planning Staff at the Department of State, later one of the architects of the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, what a sweetheart) and isn’t any kind of analysis; it’s just a “proposal” (loosely termed) with little apparent thought about implementation or whether and how the affected parties could be induced to agree to it. I mean, I can write a proposal to Hayley Atwell that she go on a date with me but that doesn’t mean I’m going to be runner up to Steve Rogers.
Stranger
Thank you.
Before Argentina invaded (if indeed that document was drawn up then), there had been all sorts of compromise suggestions, some given serious consideration by the UK government, but IIRC failing to get enough support in Parliament But the suggestion here isn’t compromise, more complete surrender to the Argentine view, and if it had emerged at that time, one can easily imagine the reaction from the tabloid press, the Scots and indeed Thatcher herself.
Some say that the UK government’s willingness to consider compromise or some way to shelve the question encouraged the junta to think they could get away with invasion. But, of course, once they’d fired the first shots, that changed the picture entirely.
The Argentines couid have negotiated some compromise if they had used diplomacy. Instead Galtieri wanted a patriotic war to secure his own position within the Junta. It was a stupid mistake. It is the kind of thing dictators tend to do.
The UK had a very close alliance with the US during this period of the Cold War. Thatcher and Reagan saw eye to eye on most issues. Facing off the Soviets was a much bigger deal for the US than the antics of some South American fascist regime whose military expertise lay primarily in persecuting its own people.
Casper Weinberger was very supportive of the UK and I remember seeing an interview where he mentioned lending a aircraft carrier if needs be. Chile also gave a lot of support. Pinochet was fearful that the Argentines would be coming after Chilian territory if they were successful in the Falklands.
The conflict showed up the vulnerability of warships to long range air launched missiles. I daresay this had a big influence on the development of warship air defence systems.
That is absolutely all that it is, a proposal. There were likely more proposals regarding the disposition of the Falklands, something we never had any say in to begin with. This one may have escaped the shredder because it was less moronic than the rest of them.
This paper was randomly pulled from a massive data dump (bolding mine):