No it doesn’t, Yes I can, and No I don’t.
Who the hell appointed you the arbiter of what is and isn’t a logical and reasonable distinction?
I never said there was no possibility of ever predicting violence in a person. I said people who attempt to make such predictions do a dismal job of it.
Let’s look at the situation with the kids first (for contrast value to be used farther down-post). I would be inclined to authorize temporary removal of the kids based on my belief that the patient is a danger to them. This willingness is predicated on the following beliefs or assumptions, though, and if I have sufficient reason to doubt some or all of these, I’d probably flip my decision and NOT authorize the removal of the kids:
• that the relevant child welfare authority has a safe place to put them, where they will not be at high risk of being traumatized by coercive or abusive individuals as an outcome of having been removed
• that the patient will most likely be reunited with the children without undue invasion of family privacy if there’s no additional suggestion or reason to believe the patient might harm them
• that the patient herself meant that she thought there was some likelihood that she would act on what the voices were telling her to do
Now with regards to holding the patient herself. I’m possibly unusually zealous about incarceration in general. (To me, it seems like our society is jaw-droppingly blasé about it. We actually have activists running around trying to stop capital punishment who don’t appear to have any problem with life imprisonment. If I were ever convicted of the type of crime for which those were possible punishments, I’d want to escape just to go torture and maim those idiots for such a stupid-ass position. I don’t think it should be legal to incarcerate anyone for 5 years or more without at least giving them the option of death instead. Putting people in some kind of cage is incredibly cruel and it should be vanishingly rare). Then, on top of that, there are many associated outcomes, possible side effects of short-term psychiatric incarceration if you will, that I’d consider significant risks were I to act to commit her under the described circumstances:
• she’d be someone on whom an involuntary hold had been secured for anticipated violence and, as such, I don’t think they’d release her simply because 72 hours of observation elapsed during which she did not threaten to kill her children any more. I think she’d be at risk of being held involuntarily for a comparatively long time and her release would be contingent on manifesting signs of “change”, and not as she would necessarily define it for herself.
• I think it extremely likely that she would be pressured to take psychiatric drugs of the class generally described as “antipsychotics”, and/or those described as “antidepressants”; I don’t share the psychiatric profession’s generally high opinion of those; and the right to refuse psychiatric medication without medication compliance being made a requirement for discharge (or even the attainment of “privileges” as an inpatient) is one of the areas in which self-determination is most at risk in an involuntary commitment situation. Even if we stipulate that she’s already taking psych meds, the general experience of pro-treatment mental health “consumers” with involuntary situations indicates that patents tend not to be consulted about which medications they do or do not wish to take.
• it very often creates a revolving-door profile, in which the institutionalized person internalizes a sense of self as belonging in an institutional setting and damaged or sick in the head and incapable of taking care of self, and in which the relevant police and psychiatric personnel view the person as someone already demonstrated to be a person who quite properly needs to be locked up on occasion, hence future involuntary incarcerations are more likely than they would be for someone else all other things being equal