Someone help me understand commodities futures

I’ve been trying to get my head round this for years; I get it up to a point, but then it all goes fuzzy.

Here’s what I understand about the subject - please correct me if I err:

A producer, e.g. a copra farmer, can sell his future crop to an investor at a predecided price, to be delivered on a set date. This is in effect a loan that allows the farmer to purchase seeds or whatever to make the harvest, and thus stimulates the rural economy.

That investor can then resell this potential crop on a futures exchange to someone who feels they have a better understanding of what the price for the goods will be on maturation. Thus if I feel that copra will go up in price, I can buy it at what I consider to be a bargain price and realise profit on the crop when it matures.

Practical questions: do individual farmers make these deals? How do they physically do it - paperwork, etc.? Do they work as a conglomerate or as individuals? Imagine I end up with a future that matures today. Do I now have to take delivery of the crop in order to resell it? Is this now a tradable commodity? How do I do this? Who pays the shipping costs? Does every trade mean that someone has made a loss?

Things that really confuse me: I gather that, to stimulate the market, there are futures being traded on the exchange that don’t actually refer to real stock; furthermore that they expire simultaneously with another future, and “cancel each other out”. How on earth does this work? What possible advantage could an investor have in buying one of these things?

:confused:

Poke around at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange web site

Especially under the ‘Education’ menu item.

If you’re looking for ag products, www.cbot.com is a better starting point.

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page1/1,3248,1060,00.html Look for the Introduction brochure, this will explain the mechanics. The crib sheet (and answers to your questions) is explained below:

The futures contract is not a “loan.” The money changes hands only when the product is delivered/received. That is, if I am a farmer and I will be harvesting 5000 bushels in November (1 contract), I have a good idea of what the cost will be for me to farm it. What I might not know is what the market value of that soybean crop will be (there are lots of factors for this, which we can go in to later), but I know for instance that the current price of Nov Soybeans (symbol: SX04) is $7.386/bushel as of Friday’s close. If I think that this price will drop, I can short (sell) a contract at the market’s price which may or may not be the price on Monday. If I think the price will rise, I can wait and hold out for a better price.

If someone else thinks that the price is going higher, he will go long (buy) my contract. Depending on what he wants to do with it, he can hold it for delivery (i.e. until the contract expires in November 1) and gets the 5,000 bushels at $7.386 ea., or he can, if he is a speculator, sell the contract to someone else.

Having sold my contract, I basically owe someone 5,000 bushels of soybeans at $7.386/bushel.

The (simplified) way they make the deals is they call their broker, who sends the order the the trading desk where a runner takes it to the pit where a floor trader trades to another guy…and in November, you deliver your soybeans to a CBOT-approved grain silo where it is inspected for quality and quantity and someone picks it up and you get a check.

If you’re a speculator, you have no intention of taking delivery of the crops and you’re not obligated to do so…so long as you trade it before Nov 1. Then, you have to take delivery (or beg your broker to retender, which is, I understand, a pain). You can trade a given contract as many times as you want. If you don’t want to take delivery, you simply sell your contract to someone else.

Commodities is a zero-sum game, for every dollar made, someone else loses a dollar.

I don’t understand your last question. Rephrase it and I’ll give it a shot.