Tomorrow, the Hague Permanent Court of Arbitration will rule on the Philippines 2013 “argument that China’s claims over much of the sea, a strategic waterway in the western Pacific, are illegal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.” tomorrow, July 12. China has, of course, already rejected the ruling (it’s pretty much accepted that the Hague is going to rule in the Philippines favor on this one). Here is an article from the NY times on the subject if anyone is interested.
I guess my question is, will any of this make any difference at all? China has already rejected the findings of the tribunal (before the report comes out tomorrow), and has said they won’t honor them. The findings are pretty much non-binding, again as far as I can tell, and they don’t touch on sovereignty in any case. So, is there any point to any of this? Does anyone care what the ruling will be or give it any weight at all? What’s the point of things like this when a country like China (or the US, or any other major power) can just ignore the findings and do what they want anyway?
It seems like the South China Sea is going to be a major flash point if things keep up as they are…and it doesn’t seem that the Philippines trying to go for arbitration at the Hague has accomplished much to calm that down.
Stuff like this (China rejecting the arbitration because they view it as a sovereignty issue) is exactly why international law is more of a polite fiction than anything else.
Without the ability to enforce sanctions/punishments on offending parties, it’s just a bunch of legal hot air.
Put another way, if you and your neighbor go to arbitration, and your neighbor violates the terms of that arbitration, the courts can use the powers at its disposal to enforce those terms- fines, legal action, police, etc…
The Hague Permanent Court of Arbitration doesn’t have the ability to send the US Navy and Marine Corps to go stomp on the Chinese and kick them out of the Spratlys or Paracel Islands, and nor can it compel signatory nations to levy sanctions on China either. However, I suppose if nations decide to sanction China, then they have that little bit of legal backing for those actions.
I’m not sure what the Phillipines are supposed to do- they can’t really fight China, and even if they win in the Hague, that ruling has no teeth, for reasons elaborated above. They’re essentially getting bullied in international politics, and since China’s a nuclear power, nobody’s willing to go to bat for them.
Well, since there has been an overwhelming response to this thread (:p), I figured I’d update it on the latest. From the BBC:
As you said, Bump, “Stuff like this (China rejecting the arbitration because they view it as a sovereignty issue) is exactly why international law is more of a polite fiction than anything else”. Looks to me as if little to nothing will actually be resolved by this ruling, so it was pretty much a pointless exercise in the end.
China’s claim to the whole South China Sea is akin to Wisconsin claiming all of Lake Michigan - a lake also bordered by Michigan, Illinois and Indiana.
It’s a process. Possibly one without an endgame but still a process.
Now the concerned parties can irritate the PRC with continual Freedom of Navigation acts and see if the PRC has the stones to intervene. If they do there’s now a precedent for the other regional powers to intervene. It wouldn’t come to war - unless the Chinese really lost their shit - but it could become expensive and uncomfortable.
The endgame of the Philippine’s going to Arbitration in the Hague was never just to “win”, because, as stated, there is no such thing as an international order or means of enforcement between states. States are free to ignore this ruling however they feel like.
The purpose is to:
Internationalize the issue. You’re certainly talking about it now, aren’t you? Unlike before, where the issue was simply a naked display of power in a little-known area of the world, now China cannot act without being judged in the court of public opinion (and especially as China wants desperately to be considered as a “legitimate” power). Think of it as how the Solomon islands uses its existential threat to garner sympathy on climate change. Sometimes international opinion matters.
Legitimize the claim. Whereas previously it was merely a “he said, she said” between two states, the Philippines now can claim that legally it was found right by a neutral arbitrator. This will turn into something that the Philippines (and other parties) can beat China over the head with in every international forum from now till decades in the future.
Leverage. Before this decision, the Philippines had nothing on China. Now it does. While China is unlikely to do a complete turnaround immediately, this leaves the door open to negotiations between China and the Philippines where both sides can “conveniently” say they resolved their differences domestically in a way that is palatable to their respective publics. China won’t leave, but perhaps it may be more flexible in allowing access to Philippine fishing vessels, joint oil and gas exploration and the like.
None of the above, of course, precludes the possibility that the Arbitration decision will drive China into a corner and become more hardline in its defense of its position. They could, for example, go rogue, decide to opt out of UNCLOS all together, build up military installations in the disputed area and alienate all its neighbors. However, all that’s going to do is drive Asia towards the US and Japan, possibly increase US presence in the Pacific, and increase the threat of some miscalculation leading to violence. It would behoove all parties for it not to come to that.
I get that. I think your points are sound, and that probably (almost certain) is the rationale that the Philippines used and their expected result. My guess is that the Philippines might be able to use this as a bargaining chip with China to get something out of China’s defacto ownership of some of the reefs/man made island that are clearly in their (the Philippines) territory. Also, I’m guessing several other claimants have been following this closely, and might do something similar now that this ruling has come out in favor of the Philippines.
Note that as the Permanent Court of Arbitration has ruled on facts involving the case, China’s arguments now are to undermine the integrity of the process itself, “poisoning the well” as it were. I think this is dangerous, as the only power an international body has is that its perceived to be relevant. The international order of the UN, UNCLOS, etc. is an elaborate fiction, however its a fiction that is necessary or else the rules devolve into chaos.
Sort of reminds me of the Hogfather quote, really:
This has been the Chinese party line ever since the case was filed. China is going to keep on doing what they’ve been doing, bullying the smaller countries in the region, overfishing the waters, destroying the ecosystem. To do so otherwise would be to admit they were wrong. And China is never, ever wrong.
I can’t wait to see what our new president is going to do. This is the guy who promised, during the presidential debates, to hop on a jetski and personally plant the Philippine flag on Scarborough Shoal.
The Chinese government has stated its official position. It has declared ownership of the South China Sea islands to be an irreversible position they will hold. China has said it will not renounce its claim, negotiate away its claim, or recognize any agreement that denies its claim. Their only issue is how they will get other countries to recognize Chinese ownership of the islands.
So other countries have the following options:
Delay the settlement as long as possible. That seems to be the current overall policy. It’ll work for a while but time is on China’s side. It’s developing its presence in the region at a much faster rate than any other country is.
Negotiate a settlement. Let China have the region and get the best possible terms for it. Taiwan seems to be leaning in this direction.
Fight over it. Not likely to happen. Nations in the region are forming alliances but the reality is that China is stronger than all the other countries in the region combined. The only way an anti-Chinese alliance is going to be credible is if Russia or the United States commits to it and neither is likely to happen.
The 4th option is the one the US is taking…which is, basically, treat the area as what it is, international waters, and continue to operate our own military there regardless of what the Chinese claim. You make it seem like the only course of action are to accept that the Chinese can simply, by fiat annex a huge swath of territory, or they have to fight the Chinese in a war. The US seems to be taking a middle position between those extremes, while continuing to support regional allies and putting diplomatic pressure on the Chinese to take a less hard line.
Of course, considering global warming and the fact that the region has already been hit by unusually large typhoons this year, it might be a long term moot point, since it’s hard to believe that some artificial islands barely a few feet above sea level and without a lot of protection from the elements (or sea level rise) are going to be long term concerns anyway. One good (or really bad, depending on your perspective) storm could make them a moot point and sink hundreds of billions of Chinese dollars to the bottom of the SCS.
Worst case scenario on this is that China doubles down and finally builds a military outpost in Scarborough shoal, which is less than 200 miles from the Philippine capital. The Philippines will freak out. The longer this goes on, the higher the chances of this happening, hence I suspect this was also a consideration in going for arbitration at this stage. There has been some rhetoric from China in doing exactly this later this year.
It seems to be where the Philippines is going as well, but I doubt it’ll be in terms of “letting China have the region”, more like “I just got a new highway system the Chinese built. Oh, by the way, I’m not mentioning my totally justified international dispute for now”.
There won’t be a war. The Philippines is a mutual defense treaty ally of the United States, and while the US does not have much incentive to go to war with another nuclear power over the Philippines, the mere threat of this makes deliberate, large-scale conflict between the US and China very unlikely. Of course, this does not preclude individuals from *either *side of China or the Philippines to act stupidly, one can imagine a standoff situation like what happened in Scarborough shoal in 2013 happening again, or worse, something like the shooting skirmishes between Vietnam and China over the paracels in the 70’s. If that’s going to happen, China’s going to win, hands down.
That’s just Option #1. We’re just ignoring Chinese claims while not taking any steps to resolve those claims. Meanwhile China continues to build up its military presence. At some point China is going to feel it’s strong enough to assert its ownership and tell American ships they will no longer be allowed to pass unchallenged through what they consider to be Chinese territory. And at this point, delaying will no longer be an option and the United States and other countries will have to decide between Options #2 and #3.
Only if you believe that, somehow, China will or would be in a position to be so overwhelmingly strong in the region that the US would back down. That doesn’t seem reasonable to me, to be honest. It also presupposes that China’s military and economic trajectory is ever upward and they will be able to do things like this years or decades into the future without consequence. Again, that seems, um, overly optimistic to me, knowing where China is today and the things that are impacting the Chinese economy, military, regional position and internal pressures in China.
It’s hard to say. The Philippines have reached military agreements with Japan and Vietnam. (Japan has no claims in the South China Sea but it has agreed to support the Philippines against China in exchange for Filipino support in Japan’s dispute with China over territory in the East China Sea.) But these might just be creating a stronger position from which to bargain.
Step one in resolving Chinese claims is identifying *what *those claims are. China claims the *entire *South China Sea, without specifying any coordinates on its “territory” whatsoever. It literally drew lines on a map. That’s it. Meanwhile, the rest of the claimant states in the region (including the Philippines) are using UNCLOS in delineating specific coordinates for their maritime borders, which China is also a party of.
This Arbitration decision just called China on this. Next move is on China, whether it’s a law abiding country or whether it will prove itself as the “regional bully” that many countries already think they are.
