Steve, are you saying that the number of homicides in Britain has remained roughly at 600-700 throughout the 20th century? If that’s true, then something you guys are doing appears to be working, since the population of the kingdom is probably, what, two or three times greater than it was at the start of the century?
Beer, the kind of social modeling you’re talking about is pure quackery, as I’m sure you’d acknowledge in practically any other setting. Any such model require hundreds or thousands of assumptions, all of which are subject to second-guessing by everyone else. Let’s face it, you ain’t accepting any model put forth by the Brady Center, and I ain’t accepting any model put forth by the NRA–nor should we, because any model simply reflects the assumptions and biases of its creators, and is basically nothing more than a semi-informed guess. So if social modeling is right out the window, what are we left with except experimentation? It ought to be well-informed experimentation, of course, and comparisons to other nations are a hell of a lot more helpful in gathering such information than any model pulled out of the ass of any social scientist.
Fenris, how 'bout you not refer to people in favor of gun control as “gun grabbers” or “the anti-gun crowd,” and I won’t refer to people in favor of gun rights as “gun nuts” or “the gun-loving crowd”? Also:
First off, only a small number of states have “shall issue” laws, so your figure of 34 overstates the number of states where CCW permits are easily available.
Second, I don’t think your assumption that concealed carry = more guns is true–the data I’ve seen show that nearly all people who get CCW permits already owned guns.
Third, why should we expect to see a “HUGE” jump in gun-related deaths anyway? Hardly anybody has a CCW permit even in those states where they’re easily available, and next to nobody actually carries on anything resembling a consistent basis. If your assumption were correct, wouldn’t you also expect to see a “HUGE” jump in criminals shot and killed in self-defense? Where are the statistics that show such a jump? (Note: I’m looking for statistics, not anecdotes.) I haven’t seen anything that indicates that’s true either–I tend to agree with you that CCW is a wash.
pldennison, note that I didn’t say Britain was conclusive evidence. But it’s easy enough to compare homicide rates to gun ownership rates worldwide and see that there’s a significant correlation between fewer guns and less homicide. Not too many countries have gone from widespread gun ownership to anything resembling a ban, which means that causation is going to be terribly difficult to prove in any particular instance. Let’s wait a decade or so and see how Australia goes, eh?
