Speaker of the House after 2014

Politics & Elections
1

I think most of us, regardless of political leanings, can agree that John Boehner’s tenure as Speaker of the House has (so far) been rather difficult for him. He obviously faces opposition from the House Democrats, but unlike most recent Speakers he faces a lot of trouble from within his own party. The latest polling/predictions I’ve seen suggest that the Democrats may pick up some seats in the House in 2014, but the majority will almost certainly remain with the Republicans.

What is the likelihood that Boehner retains his position as Speaker, and if he loses it:
[ol]
[li]Who are the likely candidates to take over, and,[/li][li]What do those potential candidates mean for how the House will be run?[/li][/ol]

I suppose the first big question is: does Boehner even want to remain as Speaker? In his position, I’m not sure I’d want to. OTOH, would he be content to not run again, and go back to being just another member of the House (albeit a senior member)?

I had wondered (briefly) if there was a possibility of a fractured Republican house caucus leading to a Democratic Speaker, but House rules require that the Speaker be elected by an absolute majority, so that couldn’t happen. The rules do provide that the Speaker does not actually have to be a member of the House, but by custom it has always been so, so it seems exceedingly unlikely that it would be anyone other than a sitting member.

Can Boehner appease enough of the Tea Party/far-Right caucus to retain his Speakership and, if so, what will that mean for the legislative agenda for the next few years? What are the odds that he might decide to abandon the Hastert Rule and try to build some moderate (or Establishment, if you prefer) Republican/Democratic coalitions to move a few pieces of significant legislation forward, knowing it might cost him the Speakership (and potentially even his seat)?

Since I started the thread, I’ll just say that I have no clue what is likely to happen. I get the feeling that the right-most wing of the Republican House might be happier with Eric Cantor as Speaker, but I don’t know enough about Cantor to have an opinion on how he’d run the House, or if he really wants it. I’m just really curious as to what others might think.

2

I’ve heard of dark horse candidates, but now we have a crazy horse candidate. None other than Ted Green Eggs and Ham Cruz. There is nothing that requires that the Speaker be a member of the House, apparently, and Cruz’s Deranged Army is apparently ready to crown him as Speaker.

3

Boehner’s staff was floating that he would step down as Speaker after the mid-terms regardless of whether his party keeps control of the Chamber, so it seems likely this will come up even if there isn’t a coup.

4

I figuring - from his behavior - that Eric Cantor wouldn’t mind giving the Speakership a go. But I think he’s foolish to believe he’d have a better time of it than Boehner.

Cantor has spent a significant amount of time working with the tea party right in the house, both to establish his bona fides and to weaken Boehner. Should Boehner fall or step aside, Cantor is one of the top candidates to replace him. However, I think Cantor would find that those who elevate him - the furthest right in the House - would be just as ungovernable for him as they’ve been for Boehner. The Speakership - in the end - is about making things happen and finding middle ground. Combine that with the fact that there is about 20-25% of the republican caucus that is simply ungovernable…that views any sort of compromise as a betrayal of core principles and cannot be tolerated…and the basics of governing become impossible without a strong contingent of democratic votes.

Once Cantor takes his first step down that road - finding ways to work across the aisle - the people who helped him get his leadership post will begin sniping at him. Then he’ll find himself in the position that Boehner’s in now: hoping to get legislation passed but unable to actually get it there.

5

I was thinking roughly the same thing. I think he enjoys the thorn-in-Boehner’s-side role much more than he would actually enjoy being Speaker. What’s the saying about having a thing not being so nice as the wanting?

And this is why, in my opinion, the next Republican Speaker ought to not hew to the Hastert Rule so closely. If your party is the majority, and it’s a cohesive majority, you can make a credible claim that your party’s ideas and proposals represent the will of the majority of the people. Boehner’s not really in that position nearly as often as Hastert was when he established that pattern. I suspect there are bills that could pass the House with combined Democratic and Republican votes that are not being put forward because of Tea Party recalcitrance (immigration reform comes to mind), and that could be said to be representative of the majority of Americans. It would, however, take a Speaker and a number of Republican Congresspeople who were not afraid to take a Tea Party primary opponent head-on, and I just don’t see that happening for a while.

6

Yeah, I’m doubtful that would happen. The real fear for most Representatives is a primary challenge from the right, not the general election.

As long as that’s the case it’ll be hard for the majority to challenge the minority.