Trump is also a bullshit artist though. He has enhanced ability to declare victory and get out. OTOH, the final deal will be worse than Obama negotiated. That’s gotta hurt, but the conservative capacity for cognitive dissonance - avoiding thoughts that are too unpleasant to think about - is almost without bound.
My temperament makes me lean towards the declaring victory and getting out scenario, but honestly I don’t know how to analytically weigh that against Hari_Seldon’s perspective. It’s hard to imagine this conflict continuing into August, but that’s the way of all wars. I lack reliable intuition regarding war, my only strength being knowledge of that.
Iran gets a vote too, and it’s difficult to conceive of them not wanting their pound of flesh, especially if they apply their decades long smuggling skills and evade the blockade to a limited extent. I’d expect ostentatious attempts to openly export fertilizer, as well as ostentatious wavering if the world slides into recession.
Another factor: Trump’s short and declining attention span. He would much rather be fighting Cuba. Bullies are often surprised to encounter vics who punch back. The regime change may be his own.
There’s only one letter available for Trump to take here and it’s an L. This has been the case since the first hours or days of the conflict when Iran’s government didn’t fall and it took control of the Strait of Hormuz which was something the White House had not planned for or anticipated. Critically, it became clear that Iran could hold out on a timeline much longer than Trump’s. Everything since has been fall out of those essential facts.
… Everything that happens now is a matter of Trump’s inability to accept something that actually happened more than two months ago.
And now the US has violated the ceasefire. I’m going to guess that some sort of AI told the USA that ships were planting mines, so they blew them up. This seems to be their go-to strategy.
So now the 60-day clock has again reset, meaning Trump/Miller/Hegseth can continue to do what they want without any repercussions from Congress, except hand-wringing and, of course, stern looks.
It appears to me that he actually thought he could bomb the crap out of them for a week or two and get them to meekly knuckle under and submit to his greatness. Apparently, his obvious lack historical knowledge in general and the Middle East in particular coupled with megalomaniacal delusions of grandeur have put him in a very bad position. He needs to get out of this war looking like a winner and Iran, being stubborn and unbending, is not cooperating.
Under the circumstances Trump might be listening to Israel, which is known to have that attitude towards ceasefires; a “ceasefire” is when the other side isn’t shooting at you, but you are still shooting at them. It’s the kind of one-sided “deal” that would appeal to Trump.