Speculation seems to be that some Liberals wish to force an election in order to get rid of Dion. Dion appears to not desire an election, as the party is simply not ready.
Assuming there is no poison pill in the speech tonight that would cause Dion to direct the Liberals to vote against the government, what could his internal opponents do? If they join the NDP and the Bloc in toppling the government, do they get thrown out of the party? Does Dion quit?
Is it significant if Harper looks surprised at anything Jean reads?
Ms Jean is the GG, n’est-ce pas? Surely she shouldn’t be reading anything in her speech that could surprise Mr Harper? The convention is that the speech outlining the government’s plans is written by the government itself. The GG may phrase this in terms of “my government’s plans” but she has to read it verbatim.
If I’m the Liberals, I vote down the throne speech and hammer Harper over the anti-Kyoto portion of the speech. Harper seems to think that he’s trapped the Liberals on that, but I think that he’s really just given the Liberals the perfect piece of ammunition for an election.
I hate American news channels :mad: . There appears to be zero coverage on CNN/MSNBC/etc. Canada is quite literally our closest ally and it’s government might fall (yes, I know that’s not nearly as dramatic as it sounds) and nobody cares. So does the Canadian Throne Speech involve lot’s of pretty costumes and people walking backwards like in the UK?
OK. I’m hijacking. But what in the HELL is not to like about the Harper Conservatives? The economy is firing on all gears. The dollar is at a 36(?) year high. (Whether that’s good or bad is another argument.) Unemployment is similarly at an almost unprecedented low.
Kyoto, as prescribed by the Liberals is unachievable.
Afghanistan needs us: they even have pleaded us to stay.
The GST has been reduced.
We’re paying down the (Liberal) national debt.
I don’t want to, and am possibly not allowed to, get personal here. But what the hell is wrong with the present government, apart from the fact that they require a majority mandate to get ANYTHING accomplished?
I’d agree the Conservatives look weak there, but there’s three problems with that strategy:
The Liberals did nothing to meet Kyoto themselves, so Harper can always, well, harp on that.
The Conservatives were weaker on this six months ago than they are now,
The simple fact is that the majority of the elecorate likes Kyoto in an abstact, cute-teddy-bear sort of way, but if presented with the actual cost of meeting its targets, they’ll vote to keep their jobs and standard of living every time, and
The Conservatives will likely be able to use the “Hey, we didn’t want an election but they forced it! Did YOU want an election! No! Jerks!” card to great effect. Two elections in two years is one thing, but having yet another will cause a bit of backlash against the Opposition.
Less objectively obvious, but I think a serious concern for the Liberals, is the simple fact that the Conservative jockey is riding a much better horse. Like him or hate him, Harper’s a savvy politician who ran a fantastic campaing in 05/06 and has a strong party apparatus behind him, while Dion has not proven to be up to the task so far, and his party is not in a good state.
And, more simply, here’s the real thing: Governments generally lose elections because they did something to lose them. The Harper government just hasn’t screwed anything up, of any significance. They’re spending most of their time on easy stuff; they successfully parried the “Quebec as a nation” thing and deliberately shanked the gay marriage issue with great success. The Liberals and NDP won’t be able to play the fear card like they did in 05/06 (OMG they’re going to ban abortion!) so they’ll have to hang their campaigns on track record, and there just isn’t any track record right now to attack. The NDP can use the war in Afghanistan and America-hating, but the Liberals started that war and the party won’t support a unilateral withdrawal. The Conservatives have really not made any hard decisions except reversing their stance on income trusts, and attacking them on that would be insane - 99% of the electorate’s not going to be really impressed with the Liberals saying “Hey, you should not have asked those multizillion dollar businesses to pay taxes.”
The Liberals have serious, serious problems in Quebec right now, down to the grassroots level, and with the BQ not looking great, forcing an election raises the very real possibility of handing the Conservatives 20 or more seats there and establishing them as the dominant federalist option.
The Conservatives WANT an election. The Liberals would be insane to force one. Force Harper to play his cards - force his government to serve a term and let them make mistakes. Don’t force an election the people don’t want, because if you piss them off they’ll take it out on ya.
I think the Supreme Court judges attend in their formal red robes with white fur trim (commonly called the Santa Claus suits), but that’s the only fancy dress. It’s been a while since the Governor General wore the Windsor suit, the formal civil uniform of a representative of the Crown.
Then there’s the ceremony of the Gentleman Usher of the Black Rod being sent from the Senate to summon the Commons to the Senate chamber to hear the speech, a custom borrowed from the British Parliament. Since Black Rod is the emissary of the Crown, the door of the Commons is slammed in his face and he pounds three times on the door to seek admission - a symbolic assertion of the Commons’ privileges and independence from the Crown. Black Rod only is allowed in when the Speaker of the Commons grants permission.
Unless the head of the party steps down for health reasons or something like that , they usually dont get the knives out until after the election is done and the cost is counted.
Declan
So far the only sop Harper has made to the social conservatives is to kill the decriminalization of marijuana, and the throne speech has more ‘get tough on crime’ stuff. Every other so-con issue has been <ahem> aborted.
And really, the only reason Canadians worry about Harper and his conservatives is because of the social conservative agenda, which will never get passed with a minority government.
So right now, Harper holds almost all the cards. Election call now? He’ll win – the Liberals are in disarray, and the economy is doing well. The NDP is fighting to fill the vacuum, and could displace the Libs as number 2 party in the house.
Election call in a year – Harper will win as long as the social conservatives are kept under wraps. If they’re allowed to speak out, they’ll lose the election for Harper. And it gives the Liberals a chance to firm up their ranks and find a leader with spine – or a spine for their leader.
According to every account I’ve read, the problem with Dion is not that he lacks spine, but that he’s simply not good at party organization and management. It appears, at least at this point, that he’s been Peter Principled, and is being asked to do things he just isn’t good at. The Liberals did so well under Chretien in part because Chretien was excellent at leading the party apparatus and finding managers who could keep the big red machine running from the top all the way to the grassroots. A lot of that was destroyed in Paul Martin’s brief and disastrous reign, and Dion is sitting among the debris and doesn’t seem to know how to reconsctruct it.
That said, it’s not impossible Dion could grow into the job. Things could be dramatically different in 2 years. Stranger things have happened. The Conservatives don’t really HAVE a socially conservative agenda - Harper will talk the good talk to Western social conservatives and continue doing nothing about it, as has always been his plan - but sooner or later they’re going to have a scandal or three, and the economy will likely slow down next year or in 2009. That would be the time for the Liberals to strike.
I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of that speculation is coming from Conservative supporters trying to make any breaks in the ranks of the Liberals seem more serious. The media too seems to want to set up Dion:Ignatieff as the new Chretien:Martin feud. Bitter infighting really makes for better newspaper sales.
As Rickjay said, Liberals don’t want an election now and they especially don’t want to look as if they forced it themselves. If at all possible they would want it to look like Harper forced it due to his uncompromising style. I’m sure they’ll pass the throne speech and just take Harper to task on specific issues that will play well with the public and only vote for non-confidence if they think it’s a real election winning stance.
Nice to see you are jumping in with both feet to your adopted country’s politics.
Not to take anything away from Harper (I think he has been an astonishingly astute player so far), he’s kind of the skipper of a boat that’s sailing seas of milk and honey. I would say a large part of Canada’s success right now is due to the United States’ failing.
I didn’t hear anything in the throne speech that could force an election. What party wants to be the dudes that tell their constituents that reducing the GST just didn’t sit well with them? (As opposed to flat out lying about getting rid of the GST. )
Irrespective of what someone does or doesn’t think of Stephen Harper, Canada cannot succeed because the USA fails. The world doesn’t work that way. Canada could succeed DESPITE the USA failing, but that isn’t the same thing.
Top answer Leaffan’s question, I voted for Harper and I was very displeased by the last budget. Far too much spending, not enough tax cuts. I want less spending and fewer taxes and instead got more spending. But at this point he’d get my vote again, barring some unexpected meltdown. I’ve voted for 3 different parties in federal elections, so I’m open to the evidence, and more high-spending budgets will make me less inclined to cast my vote that way.
You’re right; I should have been more specific. What I had in mind was that in some respects, Canada appears more successful because of how the U.S. is floundering right now (our strong dollar compared to the U.S. dollar that is taking the hits of the sub-prime crisis and Iraqi uncertainty, for example). Our economies are strongly linked, and the U.S. tanking is not good for Canada’s economy.
The problem is that party management in my opinion dont see him as viable for an election , okay in a caretaker role but not someone that has the charisma to take it over the top.
Also i think that the big red machine was kinda expecting McSquinty to be available, before the Ontario Tories imploded with that fundie crap leaving Dalton running Ontario for another couple of years. Since unlike the States were Governors can run and win the presidency , provincial preems dont seem to do as well, but at least the TorSun did make noises the day after the election about Dalton not being around for the whole ride.
