Thanks!
I Am Not An Accountant, but…I’m personally not very persuaded by that analysis.
They seem to be looking at profits from each Disney-era film in the year it was released. The numbers don’t budge from the original to the 2020 update, for example, they just tack on the numbers for The Rise of Skywalker. According to their analysis, Disney didn’t make any money on the Star Wars franchise in 2013, 2014, or 2015, which seems…unlikely.
And going film-by-film, they’re just ignoring any other revenue not directly attributable to them. Star Wars is a big franchise, and the IP extends well beyond the tentpole movies. I’ll grant you the licensing fees from Dark Horse Productions’ The Old Republic comic books are trivial in this context, but the licensing fees from the Battlefront II and Jedi Fallen: Order video games are probably significant. Not in the billions, certainly, but probably enough to make an impact. And the Original Trilogy is still generating revenue, which they don’t take into account at all.
They also explicitly ignore profits from theme parks and attractions, and classify that as just savings on licensing fees. It seems to me like a pretty odd assumption that if Disney hadn’t bought Lucasfilm, the “Galaxy’s Edge” attraction would have been built anyway, and the only difference would be that Disney would be paying licensing fees to Lucasfilm.
And they don’t take into account any ancillary benefits, like how many subscriptions to Disney+ are driven by The Mandalorian and access to Lucasfilm’s back catalogue.
And sure, Disney hasn’t released any new movies for Indiana Jones, but that analysis just ignores all licensing and merchandising from all Lucasfilm properties other than Star Wars.
In short, I think that analysis is an interesting first cut, and it makes a pretty good case that the Star Wars film franchise isn’t close to the MCU-level juggernaut Disney was hoping for when it made the acquisition of Lucasfilm, but I just don’t buy that Disney is currently still down $2 billion on that acquisition.