Overheard by a colleague at Lloyd’s of London (the massive insurance market):
Broker 1: This big storm we’ve just had*
Broker 2: Yes
Broker 1: Well, they’re about one in seven years aren’t they?
Broker 2: Yes
Broker 1: So we won’t have one for another six years! We’ll make a fortune!
Broker 2: Oh yes!
pause
Broker 2: No, hang on. The storm might have been at the end of the seven years, so we might get another one next year after all.
Broker 1: Oh yes. Damn.
These are the people handling your workers’ compensation contracts, folks.
pan
*He was referring to the 1987 UK storm, fact fans! Shows the age of the anecdote.
Surgeon to patient: This operation is very risky. In fact, nine out of ten times the patient dies on the operating table. Fortunately for you, this will be the tenth time I have performed it and all of my other patients died.
Interestingly, these assumptions are very commonly used by athletes and sports fans, who frequently assume that the fact that someone has been in a slump means that they are “due” for a hot spell.
Reminds me of the scene in The World According to Garp where a small plane crashes into the house as the realtor is showing to the Garps, and Garp immediately says, “We’ll take it!”
Although in a situation as psychological as sports, this might actually be true, given that either a slump or a streak can end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Along the same lines, I don’t know how many times I saw the late Ann Landers express dismay that (her words, I’m not making this up!), “50% of the doctors in this country graduated in the bottom half of their class at medical school.”
I guess if Ann had her way, medical schools would tighten up their standards so that EVERY doctor would graduate at the top of his/her class!