Are there any statistics that show that intentional walks really work to the advantage of the defense?
That is a pretty detailed stat; you would probably have to pay for it. Just to clarify the OP, intentional walks almost always work, since their only purpose is to avoid pitching to the batter being intentionally walked. Occasionally a batter will lean out and crank an intentional ball, but that is rare (an Oriole did it not too long ago, though).
The problem with trying to answer this with stats is that you don’t know what the batter who was intentionally walked might have done. If I intentionally walk Barry Bonds with two outs and nobody on base, and then Jeff Kent comes up and gets a single (Bonds to third), but then J.T. Snow comes up and pops out … I might consider that intentional walk a success.
Our perhaps I intentionally walk Bonds with two aboard. Kent comes up and drives in one run, but then Snow grounds out to end the inning. One run scored, but that is much better than a possible Bonds three-run homer.
This wouldn’t be too tough to simulate on a computer. Set up a position–say runner on second and 1 out. Then enter the pitcher and batters’ stats, and run a sim 1000 times until three outs are obtained. Total the average number of runs scored per inning, and then run a different sim with runner on 1st and 2nd and the next batter in the lineup at the plate, the net result of intentionally walking the previous guy. You could easily come up with a rule on how great the difference in ability between two players must be to justify intentionally walking the first.
If you’re later in the game, you need to modify this sim slightly to tally the number of times each number of runs is scored. For example, in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth, if play A results in giving up 2 runs 80% of the time and 0 runs 20% of the time, that is a better play that one that gives up 1 run 100% of the time, whereas earlier in the game, or with a two run lead, play B is better.
No hard stats but . . .
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I’ve long been a student of the “sabermetric” (quantitative) analysis of baseball, i.e. Bill James’ work and Thorn/Palmer’s “The Hidden Game of Baseball”.
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I’ve seen a lot of games, looking out for these sort of issues.
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I’ve played a lot of Strat-o-Matic baseball, which is basically a sim.
My STRONG conviction – IBBs are usually a terrible idea. For two basic reasons: -
If it is followed by a double, triple, or HR, that’s one extra run you’ve given up;
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It creates “force situations”, i.e. 1st and 3rd becomes bases loaded. Now walks and HBP drive in the run. Sometimes they walk the bases loaded from 1st and 2d. Now walks, HBP, and even a PB or WP (or SF) score the run that otherwise would not have come home.
I think it only makes sense when there is a GIGANTIC difference between the stats of the batter up and the batter on deck. Like Barry Bonds up, a pitcher on deck and the Giants have run out of pinch hitters.
No hard stats but a lifetime of experience and observation. Plus I bet the hard stats are out there. If there is one thing that sabermetrics has proven it is that baseball observers have underestimated the importance of the base on balls for decades.
JohnW77706 (Can’t you tell I have strong feelings on this subject?)
Context, context, context. Statistical analysis, which I don’t have access to at the moment, has shown that it doesn’t pay to intentionally walk a batter every time he bats unless he’s hitting at a level even above what Bonds is doing right now.
But like John said, if the pitcher’s going to bat next, you probably want to walk Bonds. If Jeff Kent is coming up next, giving the Giants an extra base runner isn’t a very good idea. Even Bonds makes an out about half the time, remember…
Following up on last post there is a small article in Bill James’ recent book “The Revised Baseball Historical Abstract” (or whatever) where he runs some sims and concludes that even with Babe Ruth it is a terrible idea to walk him every time. Again, this is limited to the “every time” hypothesis.
Following up on last post there is a small article in Bill James’ recent book “The Revised Baseball Historical Abstract” (or whatever) where he runs some sims and concludes that even with Babe Ruth it is a terrible idea to walk him every time. Again, this is limited to the “every time” hypothesis.