Still support nuke power plants?

[giuseppgold]

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[FXMastermind]

@Siam_Sam

Once you start looking at the cold hard facts of nuke power and leave the emotionalism aside, nuke doesn’t really look all that bad overall.

I rest my case. About people saying “it’s not that bad”. Also, anyone who mentions again how much more dangerous something else is, you lose.

[Whack-a-Mole]

@DSeid

Well nice to see that you are conceding the point that the resource is more than plentiful enough throughout many areas of the United States and the world and that the issue is how cost-effective it is to exploit it.

Silly not to concede it. It is the truth. It is why other, non-fossil fuel, forms of energy can’t compete. There is a huge installed base to provide fossil fuels. They have had many decades to achieve size and an economy of scale going after easy to reach fuel.

The issue is those resources are finite. No matter how generous you want to be with what remains I do not see us getting another 100 years from them. That may seem a long time but consider fuel consumption is rising globally (as India and China in particular gear-up) and some sources of fuel are harder (read more expensive) to get. Prices on these things will rise over time changing the economics. As mentioned 80% of a natural gas plant’s operating costs are fuel costs. Look at recent price fluctuations. Yes, it is cheap today, it was more expensive in the not too distant past. It will be more expensive again in the future.

More importantly, when new tech and new construction of power plants using that tech may take 20 years to build just one then 100 years does not seem a long time to replace 70% of the power production in the US alone (nevermind the rest of the world).

If 100 years seems a lot consider if you had a child today they or certainly your grandkids will face this head-on in their lifetime.

But wind does need to be oversized and/or backed up with some natural gas - so let’s increase the cost of wind by 50%. It is still less than nuclear and investors are subject both to a more immediate payback (windfarms start producing from initial investment much faster than do nuclear plants) and much less risky (construction delays, which seem to be the rule in nuclear).

Not just oversized, which is an issue. Consider transmission losses. Consider what it takes to maintain 500,000 wind turbines (or more). It is more than the initial cost, it is the cost of operation.

Current nuclear plants are expensive to run as well. Primarily because every two years you need to shut down a reactor, pull the fuel out, store that fuel for ten years in a cooling pool then pull it out and process it for long term storage.

This is a massively expensive and complex task.

Something like a TWR would not have those issues. I am not saying TWR is a magic bullet but it has enough going for it to be looked at. People spazzing about nuclear energy, regardless of any data shown them, stops that research and development.

Wind isn’t right everywhere. Solar isn’t either. But we should use it, and other renewables, as much as we can, both in utility scale and distributed applications, build what nuclear we reasonably and cost-effectively can (which might keep up with what ages out), use storage technologies to maximize our use of the cleaner generation sources 24/7, and use natural gas to fill in the rest as we retire the oldest coal plants as fast as we can.

Again I will repeat I am all for wind and solar and some other power schemes. However, while I believe they will help mitigate the number of “traditional” power plants we need (i.e. coal/gas/nuclear) I do not think they can come close to meeting the demands for power we have.

Coal is dirty and finite. Gas is cleaner than coal but still produces CO2 and is finite and is highly susceptible to price fluctuations.

Nuclear is really the only game in town for our long term energy need prospects. The other stuff will nibble at the edges but there is no reason to suppose “green” energy sources can come remotely close, as a practical matter, to supplying all our energy needs.

[Whack-a-Mole]

@FXMastermind

I’m not worried about modern well run reactors, as long as there is a vast peaceful society with experienced people in charge, and the reactors are in stable areas, far from major population centers, and they dispose of the spent fuel rods, rather than keeping 40 to 50 years of old fuel rods laying about in pools of water.

I haven’t even worried about the shitty run down ones in war torn areas with social strife and vast amounts of spent fuel rods just waiting for the mythical day somebody will figure out how to dispose of them safely.

But I am sure as hell worried when you have six reactors at risk, three have blown up, fuel rods are burning, radioactive fall out is coming down, and nobody can say when or if it will be resolved. I don’t like that a bit.

That they have 40 years worth of fuel rods stored there, that is really troubling.

Fuel rods do not stay in pools for 40-50 years. Ten years (give or take) is usual.

Then the rods are processed for long term storage (once in that state they are not producing heat and will not melt themselves…they just sit there).

Yes, it is not stuff you want in your back yard.

As noted before there are numerous designs (some of which have already been built in some parts of the world) which eat that waste (called Breeder Reactors). I cited a Traveling Wave Reactor which can eat waste material already sitting at sites in the US that is currently considered garbage. Estimates suggest enough is sitting on the ground now (no need to mine more) to supply the US energy needs for 800-1000 years.

The design is also self limiting. The literal physics of the thing will not allow it to explode or melt down. Forget fuck-ups…even if you tried to make it melt down you could not do it.

What waste is left over from these (after 60 years of operation) can be recycled into new reactors.

You are scared of Chernobyl style reactors…fine. What about something like I just explained?

[Whack-a-Mole]

I just came across the title of this post on Reddit. I have not had a chance to fully explore the info here but at a cursory glance seems some research was done.

Thought I’d toss it on here to allow others to have a go as well if they felt like it.

I am currently making no claims to the validity of this.

Merely a data point for now till I and others muddle through it.

Deaths per TWH by energy source | NextBigFuture.com

[elucidator]

Reddit is a message board. Its not very commercial, very indie and underground, so you probably never heard of it.

[Whack-a-Mole]

@elucidator

Reddit is a message board. Its not very commercial, very indie and underground, so you probably never heard of it.

(As an aside is there some inside joke I am missing here?)

[Leaper]

An interesting radiation chart, with cites, from XKCD.

[Algorithm]

@Whack-a-Mole

I just came across the title of this post on Reddit. I have not had a chance to fully explore the info here but at a cursory glance seems some research was done.

Thought I’d toss it on here to allow others to have a go as well if they felt like it.

I am currently making no claims to the validity of this.

Merely a data point for now till I and others muddle through it.

Deaths per TWH by energy source | NextBigFuture.com

It’s worth mentioning that the article uses a rather low estimate for the number of deaths due to Chernobyl. Though, even if you estimate 1 million people were killed, you still end up with a much lower death rate for nuclear power as compared with coal and oil.

Analysis shamelessly stolen from this reddit comment

[Deeg]

@FXMastermind

I rest my case. About people saying “it’s not that bad”. Also, anyone who mentions again how much more dangerous something else is, you lose.

What is your opinion on AGW? To me it’s a slam dunk in favor of nuclear power when one considers the possible problems caused by AGW.

[DSeid]

@Whack-a-Mole

(As an aside is there some inside joke I am missing here?)

See “hipster”.

Me, I’m a non-ironic nerd. Old school.

[Kevbo]

@levdrakon

What Japan has shown us, is that the last thing you need during a devastating earthquake is a nuclear power plant making things far worse than they already were. People all over the world aren’t panic-buying doughnuts. They’re not panic-buying iodine because Japan had an earthquake.

Key word being panic. Not sure what point the fact that stupid people are acting stupid is supposed to make.

“FAR worse than they already were?” Thank you for illustrating my point. 15,000 odd lives snuffed out in a half hour or so, but the fact that a bunch of people have to make a precautionary evacuation makes it so much worse than “just” 15,000 people getting killed. I mean, yeah, 15,000 dead people is pretty bad, but ZOMG there could be some RADIATION !!!OnE!!

“The last thing they need” is a big-ol aftershock, or how about a typhoon, or a Ebola epidemic, or China decides that whole Nanking thing has been sticking in it’s craw long enough and now is the time to invade. WAY worse things possible than a nuke plant or three giving the engineers fits.

The power station situation IS occupying the attention of the world press and letting the Japanese FEMA analog get on with the work of taking care of the displaced people mostly unfettered by professional second guessers and hand wringers, and that is not all bad.

[Whack-a-Mole]

@DSeid

See “hipster”.

Me, I’m a non-ironic nerd. Old school.

Think I’m with you.

Not sure how many bullet points on that list one needs to meet but pretty sure I miss too many of them to count.

[levdrakon]

@Kevbo

Key word being panic. Not sure what point the fact that stupid people are acting stupid is supposed to make.

“FAR worse than they already were?” Thank you for illustrating my point. 15,000 odd lives snuffed out in a half hour or so, but the fact that a bunch of people have to make a precautionary evacuation makes it so much worse than “just” 15,000 people getting killed. I mean, yeah, 15,000 dead people is pretty bad, but ZOMG there could be some RADIATION !!!OnE!!

“The last thing they need” is a big-ol aftershock, or how about a typhoon, or a Ebola epidemic, or China decides that whole Nanking thing has been sticking in it’s craw long enough and now is the time to invade. WAY worse things possible than a nuke plant or three giving the engineers fits.

The power station situation IS occupying the attention of the world press and letting the Japanese FEMA analog get on with the work of taking care of the displaced people mostly unfettered by professional second guessers and hand wringers, and that is not all bad.

It’s tragic how many casualties there are, but I think you’re missing my point.

At least 200,000 people had to evacuate their homes. Even more people have been told to stay indoors. You aren’t supposed to buy food from the Fukushima area.

How can this not make matters in that area much, much worse than they were? Instead of sitting in a shelter right now, all those people could be home, maybe sheltering other survivors.

You’re right the media has been focusing on the plant crisis, although I don’t know how much effect that has on actual relief efforts. Do you think aid isn’t getting to people because everyone is watching TV?

I can certainly tell you there are a lot of firemen, cops, and workers tied up with that stupid nuke plant who could, and I guarantee you would, be helping civilians.

I hope you’re not suggesting everyone currently engaged in dealing with the nuclear crisis just walk away and start paying more attention to other more important matters? Believe me, if they did that, things could get much worse than now.

[FXMastermind]

If you watch tonight’s 60 minutes, the interview with … oh hell. Here is the important part.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/03/20/60minutes/main20045131.shtml

(video here - http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/60minutes/main3415.shtml )

Interview with Julia Nesheiwat. She’s a State Department official who was already in Japan working on nuclear issues. She served in Washington as deputy chief of staff to the director of national intelligence.

An American team of top experts arrived shortly after the disaster but they were largely stuck at the U.S. Embassy. The Japanese didn’t think they needed the help. But by last Tuesday the emergency was out of control and the U.S. gave the Japanese an ominous private warning.
“That if we don’t expand the efforts, we’ll require heroic work that could be quite devastating for the workers,” Nesheiwat explained.

Asked what the U.S. meant by that, she told Pelley, “That means they could very well lose their lives.”

“An official with the U.S. government told the Japanese that your people are going to have to die to save that plant, unless you let us help you?” Pelley asked. “Yes,” Nesheiwat replied.

At one point during the week, the hazard was so great the Japanese took all but about 70 workers out of the plant.

Their problem is water: the systems that keep the radioactive fuel rods cool failed. The rods are partially melting, releasing radiation. And it’s not just the reactors - there are also used fuel rods, essentially nuclear waste, stored in pools nearby. They’re also losing water.

American experts fear one of these pools is already dry.

Nesheiwat told “60 Minutes” the danger is multiplied because the reactors are so close to each other.

“That is a grave concern at this time. If there is an explosion, if there is a meltdown, a fire, it can absolutely affect the neighboring plants,” she told Pelley.

Asked what that would mean, she said, “Goodness, I don’t even want to think what that could mean. That’s just something that we would have to really plan for it at the greatest scale. And we’re hoping and praying that that’s not the case.”

It’s much more powerful watching her on video.

Of course Scott Pelley doesn’t ask the follow up question, or point out the bleeding obvious facts to her.

But lets look at two things she said, with a straight face.

“If there is an explosion, if there is a meltdown, a fire, it can absolutely affect the neighboring plants,” she told Pelley.

Seriously? You are going to say that now? After there has already been three explosions, and all four buildings are damaged, shit leaking everywhere, that is what you want us to know?

But then, the ultimate evasion.

Asked what that would mean, she said, “Goodness, I don’t even want to think what that could mean. That’s just something that we would have to really plan for it at the greatest scale. And** we’re hoping and praying **that that’s not the case.”

So that’s the answer? You don’t want to think about it?

And you are hoping and praying? That’s it?

That’s just something that we would have to really plan for it at the greatest scale.

In simple terms, you didn’t answer the question at all. Just like no other person has done since the first explosion.

Nobody, not any real media outlet, no expert, not one person has ever (that I know of) explained what the consequences would be if they have to abandon the place, what will happen if they can’t fix it.

It’s beyond insane really.

[Whack-a-Mole]

@levdrakon

It’s tragic how many casualties there are, but I think you’re missing my point.

At least 200,000 people had to evacuate their homes. Even more people have been told to stay indoors. You aren’t supposed to buy food from the Fukushima area.

How can this not make matters in that area much, much worse than they were? Instead of sitting in a shelter right now, all those people could be home, maybe sheltering other survivors.

You’re right the media has been focusing on the plant crisis, although I don’t know how much effect that has on actual relief efforts. Do you think aid isn’t getting to people because everyone is watching TV?

I can certainly tell you there are a lot of firemen, cops, and workers tied up with that stupid nuke plant who could, and I guarantee you would, be helping civilians.

I hope you’re not suggesting everyone currently engaged in dealing with the nuclear crisis just walk away and start paying more attention to other more important matters? Believe me, if they did that, things could get much worse than now.

When the program was created there were nearly 800 Superfund sites in the US. (cite)

These are places you DO NOT want to live.

You make it sound like this is a unique problem. Sadly it isn’t.

Of course no one wants another such place but the point is we deal with toxic hazards from industry all the time. What is your solution short of abandoning modern industrialization?

[FXMastermind]

It might actually be the case, that nobody in charge, anywhere, is thinking about what could happen, much less starting to do anything to prepare for it.

They are simply hoping and praying. Unbelievable.

[Whack-a-Mole]

@FXMastermind

It might actually be the case, that nobody in charge, anywhere, is thinking about what could happen, much less starting to do anything to prepare for it.

They are simply hoping and praying. Unbelievable.

Do tell…

What “could” happen in your view?

[FXMastermind]

As she said, “Goodness, I don’t even want to think what that could mean”.

But, I tell you what, you find me one credible news agency that has reported a worse case scenario in the last 8 days, and I will type out not only a commentary on that, but an actual worse case scenario for you.

It should be easy, with all the fear mongering by CNN and everybody else.

No sensationalist shitrags or other crap sources please.

[FXMastermind]

While waiting, some good news!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-21/japan-s-nuclear-crisis-eases-as-spent-fuel-pools-cool-below-boiling-point.html

Using a helicopter outfitted with infrared equipment, officials determined that the pools atop the plant’s six reactors were below 100 degrees centigrade (212 Fahrenheit), Japan Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa said last night.
The temperature at the top of the No. 3 reactor was 128 degrees centigrade, Kitazawa said, which he said was within expectations. The unit exploded on March 14, blowing the roof off its structure. The military will fly another surveillance mission on March 23 and then on Tuesday and Friday, he said.