I got that, but I’m not sure there is such an animal. What there is is more efficient powerplant designs. Guess I’m picking nits though.
Levdrakon, you seem to be consistently misunderstanding me so I guess I’m not communicating very well, but I’ll try again:
I’m not talking about what nukes can do in fifty years time either. I’m talking about what they can do OVER THE NEXT FIFTY YEARS, starting right now, today, as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and hopefully other countries industrialise and grow and pull up their living standards. The world is going to be increasing its energy demand and building new power plants over THAT WHOLE TIME, probably on an S-shaped curve. Some of those plants will be nuclear or renewable, the more the better as far as climate change is concerned.
Some of the IPCC economic scenarios and the resulting predicted temperature rises are shown here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/IPCC_temp_projections.bmp (Those tall error bars on the right are because the climate sensitivity is very uncertain.)
The yellow trajectory is what happens if we cut emissions sufficiently to match the uptake of the carbon sinks, which means the Western world slashes it fossil use AND THE REST OF THE WORLD DOESN’T DEVELOP AT ALL. The Western world may be able to slash fossil use, but as for the other, they will use whatever is available and cheap. Can’t be stopped and it would be dreadfully immoral to try.
If China and india build more nukes and fewer coal plants over that time, we may end up with the A1B trajectory rather than the A1F trajectory, which leaves the world with a degree less warming in 2100. That may be worth something. That may be worth the survival of civilisation, according to some. If they build all-nukes, or all non-fossil at any rate, then we’re definitely good. I won’t be around to see it but I have kids who might.
At the moment China is building coal plants like there is no tomorrow but the price of coal is rising fast - it’s more than doubled in the past five years. Coal, Australian thermal coal - Monthly Price - Commodity Prices - Price Charts, Data, and News - IndexMundi Nuclear and renewables will become more attractive as the coal prices rise. China is building, or having built, some Westinghouse AP1000’s (23 in progress, 120 proposed!) but China has also bought a lot of the Westinghouse technology. China will be developing, building and selling their own version. At which point, messageboard squabbles about nukes being too expensive and renewables competitive will be trumped by a marketplace that we don’t control anymore. Subscribe to read
That is what we are facing. Being pro-nuke or anti-nuke back home really isn’t going to be relevant. Safety is definitely a concern in the nuke debate and that argument will run and run. (E.g. The WHO estimates Chernobyl will result in a TOTAL of 4000 extra deaths whereas Greenpeace estimate 1000,000.) But the “too expensive” or the “takes too long” arguments are bullshit. If they weren’t bullshit, China wouldn’t be building nukes. China IS building wind turbines as well (ironically, according to wiki the wind power is causing grid problems. Although I don’t trust that wiki article much anyway - it claims 41.8 GW of installed capacity(with a blog as its source) and then that 780 MW is 30% of the installed capacity in China. Doesn’t add up.) I’ll try to find out more about that.