For at least a couple of decades we’ve heard of nuclear materials stolen or bribed away from the Soviets and other nations’ programs.
A) Are those reports at least partly true?
B) Who has been buying the stuff?
C) Why hasn’t someone used some by now?
A) Yes they are true and not just partly. The IAEA has 411 documented cases of trafficking in nuclear material but only 18 were with plutonium or highly enriched uranium. Much of the material that has been seized has been either in quantities too small to make a nuke (officials in Paris caught a guy with 5 grams of highly enriched uranium) or it’s been nuclear ‘junk’ material not capable of making a nuclear bomb. Of course a dirty bomb could be constructed with this stuff.
B) So far none of the incidents have been linked to terrorism. It seems more that various nations are attempting to obtain it. Fortunately most smuggling attempts (or more accurately the actual theft itself) is by poorly paid workers with access to the stuff. I say ‘fortunately’ because these guys are not adept smugglers or even thieves so they are much more likely to get caught. All of that said doesn’t mean that a Saddam Hussein type with his country’s resources might not turn over a nuke to terrorists. Still, I think it is more likely that a given country would want to keep it for itself for protection. Someone attacks them (or threatens it) they trot out their nuke and dare the other side to continue.
C) As I said in the answer to ‘B’ a country getting sufficient material to build a nuke would not want to use it randomly just to stick it to the US or other perceived enemy. If they are building their nukes by getting material off the black market they aren’t going to have very much. Better to keep your one or two nukes to hold off the US or other power that might try attacking you. If they did use it against the US (or probably anyone) they would guarantee the entire world community comong down on them like a ton of bricks…their regime would be done for in no time. The same goes for terrorists. In general they see themselves as fighting for a cause (whatever that may be). Detonating a nuke would make them instant pariahs…no one would give a hoot about their ‘justification’ and no country in the world would let them in…if they did the US would once again steam roll that country as it did in Afghanistan (unless China let them in but I doubt China would as they’d certainly see economic sanctions big time).
Of course, this is all what we ‘know’ about. Who’s to say what is out there that the public either hasn’t been informed about or what the government doesn’t even know. The real worry now is someone like Saddam Hussein or Bin Laden who have been driven underground and care for little beyond getting back at the US.