There are way too many Democrats who have the projection attitude of "I’m committed to voting for Biden regardless of his mental/physical condition, therefore the rest of the American electorate must be committed to Biden as well."
In the past two days, I can’t tell you how many posts I’ve seen on Reddit or elsewhere that had this theme. “I’m not worried about Biden’s prospects in November, because I know I’m showing up to vote for him!”
There are way too many Democrats whose attitude is “I’M committed to stopping Trump no matter what, so the rest of the electorate will vote for anyone with a D in front of their name.”
Of course it’s a problem. The solution is for Biden to get out there and show America he’s still got it, not to shit our pants and trigger a nomination scramble that could destroy the Democratic Party as we know it.
If in two weeks Biden is lumbering around like he has no idea where he is or what he’s doing and he refuees to speak to the public, then I’ll concede that he probably has a problem. If in two weeks he continues to behave exactly as he has for his entire presidency except for Thursday night, will you concede that you jumped the gun?
I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news but the problem is that a significant number of voters respond only to the extremely superficial and not to substance. To those voters, the fact that Biden looked frail and his voice was weak and raspy while Trump sounded strong and confident matters a lot more than what either of them actually said. The fact that Trump lied practically every time he opened his mouth means nothing to such voters.
CNN just showed a CBS/YouGov poll where before the debate, only 35% of registered voters said that Biden had the cognitive health to serve as president; after the debate, that number had dropped to 27%. On whether he should be running, it was 37% pre-debate, 28% post-debate.
The good news is that there’s still lots of time and opportunity for those numbers to change. And those numbers are only one metric – I’m sure many voters expressing doubts about Biden’s fitness will still vote for him over Trump. But it’s hard to overstate how important it is that they do change. This will be an election like no other.
Not true. First, the debate has to be acknowledged and explained. Okay, that part has happened. So Dems do need to move on and close ranks.
But do you really believe all the social media will stop, and immediately? Hogash. Republicans will flog that horse all day, every day. It fits the narrative they have been trying to sell. It is visual and disturbing. Like Dukakis and his tank ride, visual is gold.
What needs to happen is for more attention to focus on Trump and his slips. Not his silly sound effects and stunts he does for humor, but his flubs like confusing Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi, and his stumbles when searching for words. Show his issues are repeated and ongoing, while Biden was one bad debate.
But this debate will be used to hound Biden all the way to the election, and beyond if he wins.
I believe the text you quoted is Sherred giving an example of what they consider to be irrational thinking, not what they actually believe.
This is part of it. The other part is to get Biden out there to show the world that he’s still got it.
Ok. I quoted a quote. Should have gone back and look at the original. My apologies.
Sadly, this is true. I’m panicking, personally.
Joe Biden had two windows where he was optimally suited for being president.
The first was had he been the Democratic president instead of Bill Clinton in the 1990s. Both shared the same old school style of retail politics that you don’t really see anymore. And having the ability to deliver long-worded speeches without coming across like a product of Ivy League campuses. Biden was more punitive on certain issues like crime which Clinton leaned into afterwards and foreign policy where for the first two years Clinton took a more reserved role after George HW Bush made his presidency largely about America’s position in the new world. Watch old Biden speeches and he was actually very complimentary about the first President Bush on foreign policy. However he was more on the side of unions than Clinton was who tacked to the right on economics. It’s possible that Biden in that decade would have made a better president even as Clinton was seen as widely successful, and steered the party into a new era because the Biden today has been a very pro-union president perhaps more than any since FDR but the party has moved to the left of him on crime.
The second window was when he was Vice President and he ran to be the Democratic nominee instead of Hillary Clinton. Biden in his tenure serving President Obama was very spritely for a man in his 70s and had a likeability about him that far exceeded Hillary. They shared largely the same politics but she was seen as inauthentic for some reasons completely unfair but for others because there was lingering reminders of her 2008 run. People largely forgot Biden ran in 2008 too and his ill-fated 1988 campaign the butt of jokes at the time probably wouldn’t end with a candidate withdrawing in modern day. Though his aneurysm scare would have meant he wouldn’t have made it to election day anyway.
The point I am making is this is a man who always had the makings of a potential president. He was sharp on the stump. Yes he has always had a stutter and he’s been open about if for decades but his ability to be coherent on the stump and respond sharp hasn’t been affected by that being more prominent in his 80s. It is simply the fact he is in his 80s. I think he has been a fine president and his legislative accomplishments rival anyone in modern history. That largely makes me sad that he is president now in this diminished state because how much more could he have done if he was just ten years younger. We’d be coming to an end of a second Biden term if he ran in 2016. He would have vanquished Trumpism from ever taking form if he was the nominee in 2016. However his legacy cannot now be returning Trump to the White House if he is not up to the task of repairing this damage.
I don’t have a problem with Kamala Harris being the nominee. Or a Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer. Because they’ll have four months of non-stop campaigning, youthful energy, and in the case of the latter two being governors of two of the swing states key to the election. Biden can still win but now only because Trump is the alternative and makes his own big messes. It should not be left to that however.
Joe Biden has always wanted to be President of the United States. He got to achieve it. He has done generally a good job. But if he cannot campaign with the energy for the next four months he won’t be able to stay in the job for the next four years. There’s no shame in handing over the baton. The shame will be if he loses the election and his obituary will read that he turned over the country to the man who wants to destroy it.
Trump caused Biden. Trump debate now causing immense pressure in Biden inner circle.
A decision could be made soon. But it should NOT be based on polling. Polling is off this time. For many reasons. If it goes on for 2 more weeks, then Biden will not step down.
The text of the article doesn’t support the headline at all.
These two posts together would seem to indicate a warning is needed. This is not the pit, you either forgot it twice or didn’t care as you accused another poster of lying, attacked and insulted him.
So I’ll make it official. Two posts, one Warning for SenorBeef.
Please remember this is not the pit. Don’t attack other posters, don’t call posters liars.
I’m on the fence here.
Ideally, if he’s the way he was on Thursday night more than, say, ten percent of the time, he lacks the ability needed in a foreign policy crisis and should resign. That requires self-reflection, not polls.
And polls would be a terrible explanation to the nation as to why he isn’t running. The explanation would have to be essentially medical.
However, I’m convinced that most pollsters are ethical, and properly analyzed public polls show Biden is on track to losing. If he still has good days, and knows enough about statistics, those are reasonably in the mix to consider. Also, all such campaigns run private polls and focus groups. In another context, I might argue that’s a good example of why most campaign spending is worthless. Get the data for free at 538! But it would be absurd for his campaign to spends loads of money on opinion measurement and Biden then ignores it in making his biggest decision.
The polls have been turned into facts. They are not. Plus, the polls still do not predict November. 2% in a poll is not meaningful. If Trump has a 5% lead for a month, then it is meaningful. That is probably the reason to panic. A month later every Democrat will lose to Trump.
Polls are facts. Generally the best facts we have as to how a race will turn out. And 2% is absolutely meaningful in the polls particularly in a race where the polls have beeen extremely steady. It translated something like a 70% chance of winning. 30% isn’t 0, but you much rather be at 70%. The democrats probably still have an electrical college disadvantage, so Biden probably needs to outright win by a couple point to win the elections, so really he is down more like 4 points. The question is capable of overcoming that gap and if not can someone else, who will probably start in a similar place, have a better chance.
My wishful thinking is that Trump is unique. That if we can outlast him, the existential crisis to our Democracy will dissipate rapidly.
However, if that is not the case (and I don’t really believe it is), then we are faced with a future in which individuals don’t matter, and the parties must simply field the individual whom the data points to as most likely to win. Specific policy positions or platforms become insignificant. It’s 100% a marketing/advertising game, where one person’s marketability serves as a stand-in for a whole bucket of general party philosophies.
If that’s where we are already, then Democracy is already dead. If that’s where we’re headed, then encouraging Biden to drop in favor of [whatever rando polls say will win] is a step off the plank onto that abyss. Let’s say state governor so-and-so steps in and wins. In 4 years, when they lag in the polls, are we going to have the same conversation? If we remain one election away from fascism, what’s the plan to turn this country (world) around? It’s not getting better.
All that is to say, abandoning incumbents late in the game because of polling doesn’t feel like a leadership choice, it feels like a reactionary attempt at game-playing.
I am absolutely voting for a moldy potato over Trump, but candidates who are running simply because polls say they are popular are not the kind of candidates who inspire participation in the process. I imagine.
How am I to know that? I can’t independently verify them. Some polls are from outfits with a history and at least some kind of reputation … but many other polls are put out by “Who the heck are they?!?” types.
No kidding. That would even further motivate poll-result shenanigans.
My wife thinks that Harris should step aside and Biden pick a new running mate. Someone that the MAGAT’s would be more comfortable with. And face it, some racist bigoted democrats as well as those that can’t chose (my wife is none of that).
I think the GOP would pick up that ball and run with it. “They can’t even decide on a VP!!!11!”
And interesting idea, but a bad one. Thoughts?