Terrible idea. For the party with the base of Black voters, and women voters, to cast aside the first Black woman VP? Devastating.
I hadn’t seen Allan Lichtman’s name in this thread so far, so I’ll break the ice (my emphasis below).
Lichtman, a professor at American University, rejected the growing chorus of political pundits and Democratic activists who have called on Biden, 81, to bow out …
“It’s a huge mistake. They’re not doctors. They don’t know whether Biden is physically capable of carrying out a second term or not,” Lichtman said during an interview with CNN of calls to replace Biden …
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half century, except for the race in 2000, using a series of 13 historical factors or “keys.” …
Debate performance … is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election, he argued …
When pressed about whether the questions surrounding Biden’s age and mental acuity are “fundamentally different” than his metrics as president, Lichtman doubled down.
“Debate performances can be overcome,” he said. “At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness.”
That’s not how it works. There’s nothing that can flip a MAGAT to vote for a Democrat.
I am not throwing a single Black American (Harris), much less the group (Black voters), under the bus to pander to racists.
You never want to look at individual polls. You look at aggregates that account for how good pollsters are. The good ones like Nate Silver or his former 538 entity, grade pollster and give them weight and account for their bias.
The problem with this is that it wouldn’t even connect for many voters. “Biden had a terrible debate performance on June-27…so one week later, Biden has decided to choose a new running mate instead of Harris.”
The voters would be like…what? It would come across to them like a driver who has a flat tire, but decides to replace his windshield as a “solution” to the problem.
So what is Lichtman’s prediction for Nov?
I take anyone that claims to have correctly predicted the outcome over the past 50 years with a GIANT grain of salt.
And predictions don’t account for black swan incidents. Frankly, I think Friday was a black swan incident, and the real question is how to play it to the best possible advantage for a Trump loss in Nov?
He promises he’ll give it after the mid-to-late August DNC Convention.
[Heard it on TV, but here’s a corroborating source]
Have to agree that this is a bad idea for reasons already mentioned. But also I would like to add I see this all the time particularly around presidential elections. A Democratic candidate looks weak or is having a bad news cycle? There’s always a Republican who wants to come in and suggest that the Democrats should nominate someone “closer to the center”. What that actually means is they should nominate a republican. The names I always see get brought up are Romney or someone of that ilk.
“Hey Democrats, you want to win next time? You should nominate a Republican! Yeah!”
That’s not how this works. That’s not how any of this works.
Thanks for the replies re: replacing Harris. There are a number of reasons that this is a bad idea. My dear wife is as upset as anyone about this mess.
My wife, as do I wish that Biden had not gone for a second term. Call it health issues or whatever.
Have no idea who could do it. Gavin Newsom? Too California. Pete Buttigieg? Well, the fear of of homosexuality is still too strong. Amy Klobuchar? Too many X chromosomes for many.
Michele Obama won’t do it, and I don’t blame her. She wouldn’t have a chance any way.
Adam Shiff? Nancy Pelosi? Fine by me, but it is to laugh that they would have a chance.
We must therefor get congress back. They will destroy anything a democratic president tries to do. IF we get congress back, back strong, we may be able to slow down the damage that Trump intends to do.
But we won’t get a super majority in the senate. That’s a problem, and leaves SCOTUS to do the GOPs final work.
Right now, I’m so full of dread. Between the recent SCOTUS decisions (guaranteeing Trump won’t even be tried, let alone convicted, before the election) and Biden’s dismal debate performance, my gut says Trump will win in November.
If I could wind the calendar back a year or so, I’d recommend that Biden decline to run in 2024 but throw his full weight behind Harris as the nominee. Assuming that was enough to quash other strong candidacies and win her the primaries, we’d now have:
- A president unencumbered by the stress and effort of campaigning, focused on doing the job he’s done superbly for the last 3+ years
- A VP as semi-incumbent candidate able to point to her administration’s record but focusing 98% of her messaging on all the reasons DJT should never hold power again (who also, btw, may perform better with women and POC)
If this could still somehow be made to happen, I’d be enthusiastic. But I don’t think it’s possible anymore, if it ever was. So yeah, I’m counting on Joe to turn things around.
Please, if you can, channel your panic into campaigning or getting out the D vote wherever you can that will make the most difference.
What was his choice? let trump slide to an easy victory and the end of democracy as we know it?
Did you see Joe in his State of the Union address? Stong, smart, clever.
We Democrats need to grow a pair. It’s magical thinking to believe a replacement at this point has a better chance than Biden. IMO, it would be handing the election to Trump.
There is a ton of time to make hay. Attack Trump relentlessly, have surrogates stump, Joe needs to be front and center and vital. What if gas prices drop? Joe has been playing OPEC like a violin.
How the hell can Trump not be a beatable candidate? He’s about to be sentenced for 34 felony convictions on the 11th. He’s been found liable for sexual assault, fraud, etc. There’s about 10,000 evil quotes available for scare ads. Time for some Republican-style power politics, only this time all our stuff will actually be true.
Scare the shit out of the country over a Trump second term. Don’t be nice or proper. And if TPTB decide to make the asinine decision to jettison Joe, do it now. Shit or get off the pot. All this panicked chatter is not helpful.
All this talk of panic makes me nervous months before the actual event.
I have nothing to add to this conversation that hasn’t already been said.
I just know I am going to need a bucket of Klonopin come November.
Correct–thanks.
The quote from me is the one that was misunderstood as being my opinion. As Smapti correctly noted, it was instead my rendering of the delusional thinking being clung to by too many.
Do you seriously believe that if Dems never again referred to the 6/27 debate, that the GOP would stop referring to it and showing clips of it??? Why on earth would they do that?
I’ve read all the responses in this thread and related threads, and have yet to see one person claiming that replacing Biden would go “quickly, smoothly, or efficiently.”
You’ve made a straw man argument.
Everyone saying they believe that Biden should step down is acknowledging that the process will be difficult and painful. (But both necessary and worthwhile to achieve the goal of shutting out Trump.)
No, but if Biden kicks ass in the 2nd debate, the noise will diminish. Look, already the MAGA use faked videos of Joe to show he is senile.
I’m curious as to why you think Trump will follow through on that September debate. What does he have to gain?
Also as to why you think it doesn’t matter that it’s just July 1 now, and the ‘frail and confused’ clips will saturate all media in the weeks between now and September…?
I’m not sure if Biden ever kicked ass in a debate even 20 years ago. It was never his strong suit. If we are counting on him to kick ass then it probably is time to panic.
A massive gamble that’s acknowledged as difficult and painful at best sounds like a really, really bad idea. And if Biden doesn’t cooperate (and there’s no indication so far that he would), it would probably fail and just damage him severely.
Biden does need to cooperate for this to work. But if he’s unwilling to step aside, shouldn’t he be doing…something? Something that would put the fears of the way his new image will land with voters, to rest?
Biden has been saying “I’m going to be fighting harder.”*
So, okay, that’s great. He’s done one rally after the debate disaster. So far as I can tell, it’s a rally that had been scheduled before the debate took place.
So what’s he doing to Fight that’s different from what he was going to be doing before?
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Why didn’t Biden appear on any of the Sunday news shows to make his case that people got the wrong impression from the debate?
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Why haven’t we heard of a town hall–with Biden on his feet, demonstrating his sharpness and quickness–being put on the schedule for this week? (If it’s too soon for the networks to cover it, C-SPAN certainly would, no matter how short the notice.)
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Why aren’t we hearing of town halls being scheduled for Biden EVERY week?
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Why aren’t we hearing Biden’s team announce that he’ll start doing something they’ve been shielding him from for years: press conferences? Wouldn’t some snappy back-and-forth between Biden and reporters be a great way to put to rest the fears of his frailty and inability to perform?
Why aren’t ANY of these things happening?
It would appear that for Biden, “I’m going to be fighting harder” means “I will not step aside” and NOTHING else.
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* the cite: