100% this. And as we know, large numbers of votes have been saying for months that they hate these two choices (and that they feel less-than-inspired to make the effort to vote).
The ‘Biden can turn this around’ arguments I’ve heard just aren’t convincing. As I’ve said, if it does wind up in November as Biden v Trump, I will vote for Biden.
And I’m completely open to any ‘Biden can turn this around’ specifics that make sense.
‘Competing “positive” Biden clips’ just doesn’t, though.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight.
Biden wins 51 times out of 100
I don’t see that. In the earlier post (the second quote in the post to which I’m replying now), I was saying that once the less-engaged have seen the negative, old-and-feeble clips of Biden, those images of Biden won’t just magically vanish from their minds as time goes by. They will remain the picture and impression they have of Biden when it’s time to vote.
In the later quote (first shown in your post) I was replying to the theory that new, more positive clips of Biden could displace the old-and-feeble image. I don’t agree with that theory or think that it makes sense. I don’t see how any clip produced of Biden now, no matter how clearly or forcefully he might be speaking therein, would erase the ‘slack-jawed, mix up Trump-with-Harris’ clips.
And in all this, as mentioned earlier, I’m talking about the less-engaged people who don’t really follow the news and who may or may not vote, depending on how inspiring they find the candidates or on how well they’ve been convinced that their lives will change as a result of voting.
You assume they’re even paying attention to those clips instead of tuning them out and hitting “skip ad”, which is what I do when I forget to use adblock.
They can see NO seconds of the ad by hitting “skip ad”?
Even four seconds of virtually any part of the debate will be enough to signal Old and Feeble.
Well, for one, I can count on no fingers the number of political ads I’ve seen on Youtube. 90% of the time it’s either Grubhub or Vrbo.
And for two, four seconds doesn’t make much of an impression if you have the volume turned down and stare at the skip counter until it reaches zero.
Well, let’s hope that every less-engaged voter does that, then.
Two ways.
One, the negative blitz on Biden, or any Democrat running, including Harris, is a given. If it is based on memes then it can at least be made into an even impact. That’s benefit.
Two, of course the impact of low turnout is based on who is choosing to stay home, but this time the majority of occasional voters are Trump leaners, not Biden leaners. Yes, ideally winning them over is best, but second best is that they stay home or vote third party rather than voting for Trump.
Your first point seems straightforward, but I don’t see the second one. How do we know that “the majority of occasional voters are Trump leaners, not Biden leaners”? If it’s true, then I can see that parallel negatively would benefit Biden.
I went looking for something recent, and found this (from early July):
The article itself is kind of stupid, but they do have some numbers concerning surveys of voters by when they didn’t vote, and those numbers do seem unfavorable to Biden. On the other hand, I can’t find a good assessment of what turns maybe voters away from the polls (other than mild voter suppression by making voting more difficult, which I know will be happening).
Well, I think Biden just got pushed off the front page. Nobody’s going to be talking g about the debate now.
Yes? What just happened? Oh, sheeeit
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4770436-obama-apparent-shooting-trump-rally/
Trump was on stage for just a short time at a rally in Butler, Pa., before apparent gun shots rang out and Secret Service agents stormed the stage. Trump’s ear was bloodied, and some blood had run onto his face.
This is a golden opportunity for Democrats to refocus the campaign onto matters of policy. Show how Trump’s refusal to address gun control meaningfully directly contributed to this shooting. Point out how unsafe we are because of his decisions and the gun-friendly Supreme Court he appointed. Play on his paranoia and fear of looking weak and make him afraid to show his face in public again. Hell, if he winds up with a scar, talk about how unattractive it makes him look.
Not that last one.
Yup. The public interest was rekindled after the one two of Pelosi’s bit and Clooney’s piece, but Biden’s decent press conference and very good rally performance already had it calming down.
This pushes it completely off the front pages.
Of course now I can panic over how great that Trump picture will play …
I was a little bit tongue in cheek.
Well, whatever the ground level of actual belief or ground level of “would answer a poll that way,” it doesn’t matter. You know why it doesn’t matter? The very fact that it’s a novel question is precisely because the threshold is too low to register.
I mean, has any political party asked that question about their own candidate or presumptive candidate? That’s how we know 30% is huge - it never happened before.
For frick’s sake, Dem politicians are stating they’re afraid he’s not mentally fit.
Now maybe they are just being cynically opportunist, because they are afraid of their own races, and welcome whatever justification they can to push Biden out and hopefully stir more activity. So that’s a fair question.
But to have that be the reason the Dems are in a tizzy is a lot different than the Repubs shilling it.
Then again, I just heard some wonk floating the idea the reason AOC and Ilhan Omar are solidly backing Biden is that secretly they want Trump to win to further their own chances as Pres in 2028. I mean, how stupid is that? If Trump is elected again, they couldn’t count on there being elections in 2028, or at least real ones. And they know this.
So, the absence of evidence is the very evidence of absence?
We’ll just have to disagree about that. It flies in the face of all the training and education I’ve ever received in math and the sciences.
Okay, let me ask you, how many Republicans were questioning Trump’s mental fitness in 2016? He was spouting all sorts of nonsense, there was plenty of question if he was qualified, if he was viable. Did anyone on the crowded debate stages counter one of Trump’s jabs with a remark that Trump was mentally deficient?
How about Dems in 2020 and Biden? There was legitimate discussion about his age, question of too old. Any noise about his mental fitness?
Because I don’t recall this being a question, certainly not one gaining traction within their own party. That’s what I’m saying. This situation stands out being incredibly new. That means the number is significantly higher than any previous campaign. If it were only slightly higher, we would have gotten that already. Like Howard Dean’s excited whoop turned off some people, but it didn’t become a meme that he was mentally impaired.
Or to turn a phrase, “Absence of evidence is evidence it’s not common.”